With the keepers in, everyone should be taking the time to look at who’s available.
Here’s a quick look at what will make the first four rounds — as well as the rest of the draft — very exciting.
At Quarterback:
There are eight teams keeping quarterbacks which puts a little pressure on the four without quarterbacks to get their man before the other eight start snagging nice backups.
Of the un-kept quarterbacks, Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and Chicago’s Jay Cutler stood out alone before Wednesday.
Here’s a quick look at what will make the first four rounds — as well as the rest of the draft — very exciting.
At Quarterback:
There are eight teams keeping quarterbacks which puts a little pressure on the four without quarterbacks to get their man before the other eight start snagging nice backups.
Of the un-kept quarterbacks, Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and Chicago’s Jay Cutler stood out alone before Wednesday.
Now, Brett Favre has to be taken seriously. He's got weapons; he's got a year of Brad Childress' offense under his belt; and he knows he can do it.
Last season he was a bench-rider for most of the fantasy season as he was sitting behind Aaron Rodgers (talk about irony) on the Channel 4 News Team.
This season, he could easily be a starter with four teams needing a QB.
Flacco, Cutler and Favre are clearly the QBs to snag out of the one's left over.
Favre should — and I emphasize "should," with a little bit of doubt in my inflection — be done after 2010, which means if you're looking for a QB keeper, Flacco and Cutler are your pick.
Both youngsters are expected to have great seasons. Flacco just keeps getting better and when you add an Anquan Boldin to the mix, it just makes it all the better. Cutler, despite leading the NFL in interceptions, had a decent year and will be only better with Mike Martz in as the new offensive coordinator. A better defense for the Bears will give Cutler more opportunities and that should make him a top-5 fantasy quarterback.
I expect these two QBs to not make it out of the first round.
Behind them is a group of QBs who are either unproven and/or carry question marks.
Of the unproven, we have Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne and Matthew Stafford. All are in offenses with standout wideouts (DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson) and all have shown flashes of brilliance. They also have shown some flashes of Rex-Grossman-iance. This makes them a very risky pick to be a No. 1 starter, but the reward could be that the fantasy owner finds a fantasy franchise QB out of it.
Of the question marks, Donovan McNabb and Carson Palmer lead the way. Can McNabb duplicate his Philadelphia success? He had the best year of his career last season, but with no DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin in D.C., is the Syracuse alum doomed?
Everyone would like to think Owens has changed, but that’s tougher than believing Tony Soprano is done cheating on Carmella (and to think I believed Tony after Season 4 when he recommitted to her).
So, yeah. I’m not falling for it T.O. And that makes me feel uncertain about Carson Palmer. Then again, Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo each had impressive years in Year 1 of T.O. (Buffalo doesn’t count because nothing can help Trent Edwards.) Maybe 2010 is the year for Carson Palmer.
Oh, and there’s Eli Manning. I don’t like the Giants. I think they’re overrated and I think Eli is overrated. A new offensive line, still no standout wideout (Steve Smith 2 was stellar for six weeks, but fell apart after that), and an iffy running game that picks the wrong times to run over people with Brandon Jacobs and the wrong times to around people with Ahmad Bradshaw.
At Running Back:
Ten teams kept running backs, as expected. That means all the top tier running backs are gone. Ray Rice was going to be out there and would have been a No. 1 pick, but the Fantasy Super Bowl champs, who kept RB Chris Johnson, moved up to No. 8 in the draft from 12 in exchange for the Raven back.
That leaves the rest of the league with second-tier backs, but it’s OK for 10 of the teams, who already have their number ones. For the non-RB teams, Channel 4 News Team (10th overall pick) and World of Noise (11th overall pick), it will be a nervous first nine picks as some of these running backs come off the board.
Of the available backs, there aren’t many feature backs. Most are involved in tandems.
LeSean McCoy, Ryan Grant and Matt Forte are the feature backs out there right now. However, if Forte cannot return to his 2008 form after a disappointing 2009, he could find himself in a tandem situation with Chester Taylor — who often showed that he can play like Adrian Peterson — joining the team.
Still, there isn’t anything wrong with tandems, especially if you can somehow draft both as the 2009 runner-up World of Noise showed last season with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams averaging 30-plus points a week until Brown went down with an injury.
Both Brown and Williams are out there for drafting, as well as the Jets Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson, the Colts Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, the Saints Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, the Cowboys Marian Barber and Felix Jones, the Cards Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, the Raiders Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, the Chargers Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles, the Giants Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, and the Bills C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. That’s just naming a few of them. A few other pairs are out there for teams like the Lions, Bucs and Seahawks.
It’s all a matter of picking the right one and nabbing the backup if you can. It could make or break your team, or it could break someone else’s team if you nab their counterpart. Again, this will be an interesting part of the draft.
At Wide Receiver:
Only five wideouts were kept, which means the field is open. Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, DeSean Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald and Percy Harvin are the keepers.
There are several big names out there and they could change the landscape of the draft.
If teams shoot for the big wideouts early in the draft, it will do one of two things, (1) allow the bottom half of the first round to grab some big running backs, or (2) it will create a panic and we’ll see a wideout-heavy first round.
Names like Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Miles Austin, Greg Jennings, Sidney Rice (with Favre), Marques Colston, Steve Smith 1 and 2, Vincent Jackson, Chad Ochocinco and Anquan Boldin are all in the Top 13 of available wideouts, and that still doesn’t scratch the surface for who is out there.
Of the wideout keepers, no receiver for the Saints, Colts, Patriots, Packers and Chargers were kept, which is interesting considering their QBs are the NFL’s best. Expect the WRs for these squads to go first, as they should.
The rest (Tight ends, kickers and defenses):
Well, only one of these was kept and that was TE Dallas Clark. It’s the first time any position outside of QB, RB and WR have been kept in the JFL. And it’s not a bad move. The league’s top TE, who was better than many top-tier WRs, will certainly help the Noise in their bid to return to the Fantasy Super Bowl.
And it leaves the rest of the top tier tight ends out there for the league. Once the top ones fall off the draft board, the rest will stay there for a while. With the option to play a WR or TE in the 7th spot in the lineup, the difference between the 10th-ranked TE and the 40th-ranked WR are indistinguishable.
… And who cares about kickers?
For the four Super Bowl champions, kickers were selected in the final three rounds, so there really isn’t a difference between the team like World of Noise who picked up David Akers in Round 5 and the champion Toasters who got Mason Crosby in Round 13. Had Noise taken Jonathan Stewart, who was drafted to picks after Akers, he would have won the Super Bowl 131.1-130.3. Seriously.
Defenses have been different. Fantasy experts say that the difference between the top defense and the 15th is negligible. But the four Super Bowl champs have picked up their defenses in between Rounds 5 and 8. Does this mean you need to get your defense early?
Not necessarily. Four of last season’s top 12 defenses were drafted in the final seven rounds, and another four — the Saints, Broncos, Bengals and 49ers — weren’t even drafted. The Niners finished as the fourth best defense and they weren’t even drafted.
Just two of the first four defenses taken (in Rounds 5 and 6) finished in the top 10. The other two were in the mid 20s, but were selected high because the hype was out there for them.
So, drafting defenses is tough and can often lead to you missing out on a great player.
And you don’t want to do that. Just ask the 2009 Runner-up, World of Noise.
Both youngsters are expected to have great seasons. Flacco just keeps getting better and when you add an Anquan Boldin to the mix, it just makes it all the better. Cutler, despite leading the NFL in interceptions, had a decent year and will be only better with Mike Martz in as the new offensive coordinator. A better defense for the Bears will give Cutler more opportunities and that should make him a top-5 fantasy quarterback.
I expect these two QBs to not make it out of the first round.
Behind them is a group of QBs who are either unproven and/or carry question marks.
Of the unproven, we have Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne and Matthew Stafford. All are in offenses with standout wideouts (DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson) and all have shown flashes of brilliance. They also have shown some flashes of Rex-Grossman-iance. This makes them a very risky pick to be a No. 1 starter, but the reward could be that the fantasy owner finds a fantasy franchise QB out of it.
Of the question marks, Donovan McNabb and Carson Palmer lead the way. Can McNabb duplicate his Philadelphia success? He had the best year of his career last season, but with no DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin in D.C., is the Syracuse alum doomed?
Everyone would like to think Owens has changed, but that’s tougher than believing Tony Soprano is done cheating on Carmella (and to think I believed Tony after Season 4 when he recommitted to her).
So, yeah. I’m not falling for it T.O. And that makes me feel uncertain about Carson Palmer. Then again, Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo each had impressive years in Year 1 of T.O. (Buffalo doesn’t count because nothing can help Trent Edwards.) Maybe 2010 is the year for Carson Palmer.
Oh, and there’s Eli Manning. I don’t like the Giants. I think they’re overrated and I think Eli is overrated. A new offensive line, still no standout wideout (Steve Smith 2 was stellar for six weeks, but fell apart after that), and an iffy running game that picks the wrong times to run over people with Brandon Jacobs and the wrong times to around people with Ahmad Bradshaw.
At Running Back:
Ten teams kept running backs, as expected. That means all the top tier running backs are gone. Ray Rice was going to be out there and would have been a No. 1 pick, but the Fantasy Super Bowl champs, who kept RB Chris Johnson, moved up to No. 8 in the draft from 12 in exchange for the Raven back.
That leaves the rest of the league with second-tier backs, but it’s OK for 10 of the teams, who already have their number ones. For the non-RB teams, Channel 4 News Team (10th overall pick) and World of Noise (11th overall pick), it will be a nervous first nine picks as some of these running backs come off the board.
Of the available backs, there aren’t many feature backs. Most are involved in tandems.
LeSean McCoy, Ryan Grant and Matt Forte are the feature backs out there right now. However, if Forte cannot return to his 2008 form after a disappointing 2009, he could find himself in a tandem situation with Chester Taylor — who often showed that he can play like Adrian Peterson — joining the team.
Still, there isn’t anything wrong with tandems, especially if you can somehow draft both as the 2009 runner-up World of Noise showed last season with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams averaging 30-plus points a week until Brown went down with an injury.
Both Brown and Williams are out there for drafting, as well as the Jets Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson, the Colts Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, the Saints Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush, the Cowboys Marian Barber and Felix Jones, the Cards Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, the Raiders Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, the Chargers Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles, the Giants Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, and the Bills C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. That’s just naming a few of them. A few other pairs are out there for teams like the Lions, Bucs and Seahawks.
It’s all a matter of picking the right one and nabbing the backup if you can. It could make or break your team, or it could break someone else’s team if you nab their counterpart. Again, this will be an interesting part of the draft.
At Wide Receiver:
Only five wideouts were kept, which means the field is open. Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, DeSean Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald and Percy Harvin are the keepers.
There are several big names out there and they could change the landscape of the draft.
If teams shoot for the big wideouts early in the draft, it will do one of two things, (1) allow the bottom half of the first round to grab some big running backs, or (2) it will create a panic and we’ll see a wideout-heavy first round.
Names like Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Miles Austin, Greg Jennings, Sidney Rice (with Favre), Marques Colston, Steve Smith 1 and 2, Vincent Jackson, Chad Ochocinco and Anquan Boldin are all in the Top 13 of available wideouts, and that still doesn’t scratch the surface for who is out there.
Of the wideout keepers, no receiver for the Saints, Colts, Patriots, Packers and Chargers were kept, which is interesting considering their QBs are the NFL’s best. Expect the WRs for these squads to go first, as they should.
The rest (Tight ends, kickers and defenses):
Well, only one of these was kept and that was TE Dallas Clark. It’s the first time any position outside of QB, RB and WR have been kept in the JFL. And it’s not a bad move. The league’s top TE, who was better than many top-tier WRs, will certainly help the Noise in their bid to return to the Fantasy Super Bowl.
And it leaves the rest of the top tier tight ends out there for the league. Once the top ones fall off the draft board, the rest will stay there for a while. With the option to play a WR or TE in the 7th spot in the lineup, the difference between the 10th-ranked TE and the 40th-ranked WR are indistinguishable.
… And who cares about kickers?
For the four Super Bowl champions, kickers were selected in the final three rounds, so there really isn’t a difference between the team like World of Noise who picked up David Akers in Round 5 and the champion Toasters who got Mason Crosby in Round 13. Had Noise taken Jonathan Stewart, who was drafted to picks after Akers, he would have won the Super Bowl 131.1-130.3. Seriously.
Defenses have been different. Fantasy experts say that the difference between the top defense and the 15th is negligible. But the four Super Bowl champs have picked up their defenses in between Rounds 5 and 8. Does this mean you need to get your defense early?
Not necessarily. Four of last season’s top 12 defenses were drafted in the final seven rounds, and another four — the Saints, Broncos, Bengals and 49ers — weren’t even drafted. The Niners finished as the fourth best defense and they weren’t even drafted.
Just two of the first four defenses taken (in Rounds 5 and 6) finished in the top 10. The other two were in the mid 20s, but were selected high because the hype was out there for them.
So, drafting defenses is tough and can often lead to you missing out on a great player.
And you don’t want to do that. Just ask the 2009 Runner-up, World of Noise.
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