Liberty Conference Preview

1. Jimmy Jammers
2009 Record
: 10-4
2009 Division Finish: 1st
Arch Rival/Bugaboo: The Organ Thieves. It just hasn’t worked out for the Jammers. He’s 1-4 against the Thieves, including a Super Bowl II loss that denied the him back-to-back titles. At 1-4, the Thieves are one of only four franchises who have beaten the Jammers at least twice. He’s also the only franchise to have a winning record against the Jammers.

2010 Outlook: Wideout city. It wasn’t the goal, but it’s what it turned out to be. With picks at No. 12 and 17, the Jammers targeted Shonn Greene and Ryan Matthews with those picks.

But by the time the 12th spot came up, both the backs were gone, along with a few other notable backs.

So the game plan changed and instead of giving Ray Rice some company, Larry Fitzgerald gained some friends. Roddy White and Marques Colston joined what could be the top WR trio in the JFL this season. The only question is if newly-appointed starter Derek Anderson can find Fitzgerald like Kurt Warner did.

Also sitting in the background is Jacoby Jones, who I am obviously strong on because Andre Johnson needs a partner in crime and I think this will be the year Jones shows that. He already has shown that he can get open for Schaub and did so a few times for TDs in preseason.

Malcolm Floyd can also be an impact if any of the aforementioned wideouts stumble, because someone has to take over for Vincent Jackson.

Despite losing the top targets early in the draft, the RB group for the Jammers is still strong. Ray Rice is a star, and Jerome Harrison showed that if he can get 20-25 carries in a game that he can be a beast. He had more than 550 yards and five TDs in the Browns final three games last season.

Jahvid Best also could prove to be a solid pickup if he can emerge as a No. 1 in Detroit. That looks to be the case after he was left out of the final preseason game, an honor that usually denotes that you are a starter. Best had a great preseason and the Jammers can only hope that continues into the regular season, but injuries have been a problem for this young speedster. We’ll find out right away if he can handle the NFL grind.

Now to the weakness of the Jammers. The quarterback spot is in trouble. The Jammers let quarterback after quarterback slip off the board and finally settled on Kevin Kolb. He also picked up potential sleepers Alex Smith and Matt Cassell, but as the saying goes, if you have two quarterbacks (or three in this case) than you don’t have one. The Jammers may have one, but it will take a few weeks to figure out which one is it.


2. Sunday Slackers
2009 Record
: 7-7
2009 Division Finish: 2nd
Arch Rival/Bugaboo: The Jammers. The Slackers won in Week 12 of 2008 thanks to an incredible Drew Brees performance on Monday Night Football, but that is it. The other three meetings have led to losses.

2010 Outlook: Drew Brees was an obvious keeper. Steven Jackson wasn’t, and still isn’t.

Reggie Wayne would have been my pick for a keeper over Jackson, and I’m sure others would agree with me on that. Doing this would have changed this team a lot, because even with the selection of Jackson, the Slackers still managed to pick up great backs in Cedric Benson, Beanie Wells and LaDainian Tomlinson.

But at receiver, it is about as desolate as the Rams WR corps. In fact, the Slackers best, most consistent point-getter at receiver right now may be tight end Tony Gonzalez.

Hakeem Nicks is not a starter. Robert Meachem had nine TDs last year but he was on-again, off-again depending on the week. Bernard Berian has been disappointing from a fantasy standpoint, too.

The hope here for the Slackers is that Mike Wallace takes over as a No. 1 in Pittsburgh and Devin Aromashodu continues to be a favorite target of Jay Cutler. But then, you’re relying on a complicated QB situation in Pittsburgh and the iffy Jay Cutler.

Altogether, this could equal a tough year for the Slackers. With Brees and some tough RBs, he surely win some games, but I’m not sure it will be enough to have him finish second.


3. Real Houserville
2009 Record
: 8-7
2009 Division Finish: 2nd
Arch Rival: World of Noise. Dawson hates Craig. Craig hates Dawson. When the met in person at my wedding, you should have seen the looks they gave each other. It was like putting a tea party member and a Muslim in the same room and giving them the topic of Mosque construction to discuss. I thought I was going to have to separate them. It was fun to see two people meet face-to-face for the first time after all of their personal interaction has been serious trash talking online. This rivalry will continue on. Houserville owns the 3-2 series lead, but the Noise won 2-of-3 last year, including a conference championship game that kept Houserville out of the Super Bowl, hence the serious staredown.
Bugaboo: News Team and Toasters. Houserville has never beat them.

2010 Outlook: Peyton Manning is a huge reason why Houserville is favored to win the Eagle Division and finish third in the conference. Manning is fantasy gold. Enough said.

Houserville’s receivers are great at the top. Brandon Marshall has a new home and Greg Jennings still has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him in Green Bay. Dawson also picked up my favorite tight end for 2010 in Jermichael Finley and I just wish I had him. He’s a sure start every week.

Pierre Garcon will be fun to start, too, because that’s double-points for Dawson.

The running back situation is a little scary, though. Rashard Mendenhall is a good back; however, I don’t think he is keeper worthy. By default, Houserville anointed him the No. 1 back on his team and then added Justin Forsett, Felix Jones, Darren McFadden and Marshawn Lynch. It’s OK to have one of those four on your team because there “MAY” be a chance that they turn things around. But to have all four? Aye aye aye. Jones hasn’t stayed healthy. Lynch is falling to No. 3 on the depth chart behind Spiller and Jackson, and McFadden couldn’t beat out Justin Fargas over the last couple years. And Forsett hasn’t emerged as a No. 1 as Seattle continues to try other backs.

Even Mendenhall is a tough start with the pass-happy Steelers.

If the Villains fail to achieve their preseason expectations, it will be because of those five guys.


4. Fear and Loathing
2009 Record
: 5-8
2009 Division Finish: 3rd
Arch Rival: Houserville. The series is 2-2. That seems boring. But if you knew these two guys and how they interact, you’d know that 2-2 means someone has the chance to take the lead this year. And that means a lot.
Bugaboo: The Jammers and the Thieves. Fear is 1-5 against the Jam and 0-4 against the Thieves. Without these opponents, the Fear franchise is 25-18. Not bad. Too bad in real life, the franchise is 26-27.

2010 Outlook: Don’t sleep on the Fear. He’s got the players to make a playoff push. He also has some question marks that could leave him on the outside looking in.

Jay Cutler is the quarterback, and though as an owner, I had the opportunity to keep him, I didn’t in favor of Larry Fitzgerald and Ray Rice. It made sense for me, but it still was tough with the prospect of Mike Martz joining Chicago. There is a hope that Cutler can turn things around. With the retirement of Kurt Warner, Fear can only hope for a good replacement.

If he gets that, the rest should fall into place.

RBs Jamaal Charles and Pierre Thomas are a decent 1-2 combo, and Randy Moss, Steve Smith (CAR) and Donald Driver will do just fine at WR. Brent Celek will likely own the WR/TE spot.

Now, what can go wrong here?

Well, Charles was a great starting back last season and should be again this year, but there’s a vulture lurking. The Chiefs signed Thomas Jones who will certainly take points away from Charles.

Also, the addition of Charlie Weis as offensive coordinator will surely add a passing element that wasn’t there last year. This will be good for KC wideouts. And looking at the two backs, Jones should be on the sidelines on passing downs, which leaves Charles, a good receiver out of the backfield picking up some points that way. This could be one of those things where if Charles doesn’t score on plays from outside the 10-yard line, he may lose out with Jones, who will be a goal line specialist.

Pierre Thomas has the opposite problem. He needs his offense to get inside the 10 for him to have the best chance to score, but the Saints are pass-happy and often score before they get to the red zone. Thomas had just six rushing TDs last season, three coming in Weeks 3 and 4, and only one after Week 9.

Back-ups Brandon Jacobs and Lawrence Maroney have their fantasy downsides, too, so a lot has to go right for the Fear at RB — especially since he cannot rely on rookie sleeper Montario Hardesty who tore his ACL in the final preseason game.

Another worry will be the effectiveness of Matt Moore at QB in Carolina, because that directly affects the success of Steve Smith. But if Smith was able to succeed with an inaccurate Jake Delhomme, there’s no reason why a younger QB can’t get him the ball, too.


5. Jawz Attack
2009 Record
: N/A
2009 Division Finish: N/A
Arch Rival: To be determined.
Bugaboo: Also to be determined.

2010 Outlook: Well, I guess a bugaboo could have been drafting kickers.

If you were at the live draft, this is how it went:

Fear: Why are you picking up a second kicker?

Jawz: Because you need one for when your starter is on the bye week.

A few moments pass.

Jawz: Dammit. My kickers have the same bye week.

Well, at least it was only late-round errors for the newest franchise in the JFL.

Or was it?

Ryan Grant at No. 1 is very questionable. But it’s not questionable in the way that Noise picks Akers 10 rounds too early.

It’s questionable because you wonder which Ryan Grant will be around in 2010. As a No. 1 pick, obviously, the Attack has hopes he’ll have one of his best seasons.

And I tend to like this pick now that I look back at it. On draft day, I was happy to see Grant go off the board because selfishly, I thought it saved an extra player for me at 12.

But now that I look back at it, I see a back in an offense that is just going to be ridiculous with Aaron Rodgers running it. Grant can do it all. He can run in between the tackles and he can catch the screen or a pass in the flat. He is much like Jawz’ other back, Maurice Jones-Drew.

That is why I’m high on this RB duo. Depth is a question, though, with Marion Barber and Clinton Portis on the roster. Both could be incredible sleeper picks this year, but both can easily be no-risk busts for the Attack and leave the well dry.

The wideout position is the make-it-or-break-it part of this fantasy team, because at quarterback, Matt Ryan is solid and Ben “Can’t Say No to Me” Roethlisberger is a great backup after his four-week suspension. In actuality, he might be a great starter when the Steelers take the field Week 6 (they have the bye in Week 5).

Mike Sims-Walker, Steve Smith (NYG), Chad Ochocinco, Lee Evans, Roy Williams and Kevin Walter are the six wideouts on the roster. I can make arguments for why some of these will pan out and I can make arguments for why all of them can fail. It’s a “She loves me, she loves me not” scenario.

I like Lee Evans at wideout, but I don’t like Trent Edwards throwing to him.

I like Sims-Walker, but only every other week since that seems to be his M.O. for showing up.

I like Ochocinco, but I don’t like the fact that Palmer seems to have fallen in love with T.O. (Who doesn’t fall for him right away? Cities have made this mistake over and over again.)

I like Steve Smith until I find out he’s the New York version. Then I don’t like him anymore.

I liked Kevin Walter, but that was last year and the year before. Not now with Jacoby Jones emerging.

And I like Roy Williams to be another absolute failure in 2010.

In summation, I like the Attack’s WR corps, but I don’t.

Hopefully, for Jawz’ sake, I’m like wrong with my like ridiculously long preseason preview. Like totally.

6. World of Noise
2009 Record
: 10-6
2009 Division Finish: 1st
Arch Rival: Dawson for reasons already mentioned.
Bugaboo: The Jammers and Fear. He is 1-5 against the Jammers and 2-6 against division rival Fear. That is awful.

2010 Outlook: Where do I start?

Let’s begin with the bad. I want to get that out of the way.

Noise drafted Chad Henne in the first round. The hype was there for him, but to have him drafted in the first round is a bit exaggerated, and this is where Craig’s Michigan fan bias kicked in and kicked him in the butt.

Now he’s stuck with Henne, whose preseason performance vs. Chad Pennington’s has some in Miami thinking they should go back to Pennington who led them to the playoffs in 2008.

It’s not good to have a fantasy starter looking over his shoulder.

It’s even worse when your backup quarterback is Matt Leinart, who is reportedly going to be released by the Cardinals today. That means the Noise should do the same soon, too. It also means that Derek Anderson and Chad Pennington should be on his wish list.

The quarterback situation is such a mess that it makes the running backs look a lot better, but they are not.

He’s going with the Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams tandem again, and that can be a scary situation, especially with Brown coming off his second major injury.

But he needs those two backs to be the real deal again because backups Steve Slaton is hurt and Kevin Smith is sitting behind rookie Jahvid Best, who Noise could have drafted if he didn’t take David Akers earlier in the round.

OK. Now, to the good. Andre Johnson is awesome. Dallas Clark is, too. That is why these two guys were his keepers. Wes Welker was a great pickup and after Santonio Holmes returns from his four-game suspension, he’ll make a huge difference. Jason Avant also may finally be a good pickup because he’s a great No. 3 WR in the Eagles’ system.

Noise will win games when Johnson, Clark and Holmes combine for big weeks, but that’s it. He cannot count on anything else.

Comments

Mike Dawson said…
I love how you mentioned "five guys" in the writeup about my team. I love Five Guys, the burger place. Mmm.
Jimmy's Jargon said…
I thought about making a connection with Five Guys burgers when I wrote that, too, hahaha