By now, you’ve seen “Parker’s Pinch Hits” column, and he broke down everyone’s offense with his spreadsheet.
And that’d be good if none of us had any pitchers. So I put together my own spreadsheets and created the “Jammermetric Scale” to decide who will win each division. It’s not how I believe it’s going to finish, because I have my feelings about certain teams, but it’s based on projections, not feelings.
I compared each team to its division rivals, gave the team three points for every category that they will lead the division in. The team that was in second got two points and the team in last got nothing.
I used everyone’s optimal starting lineup offensively, and your top seven starting pitchers and four relievers.
Here’s how it panned out.
National League East
Jimmyjam Slammers…………49 points (13 first-place)
You’re F**cking Out…………38 points (4 first-place)
Vandelay Industries…………..29 points (7 first-place)
National League West
Ronald Duncan………………..49 points (15 first-place)
Team Suck…………………….40 points (2 first-place)
Backward Ks………………….26 points (6 first-place)
American League East
N.J. Bombers………………….44 points (8 first-place)
Sex Panthers…………………..36 points (10 first-place)
Bad News Bears………………29 points (3 first-place)
American League West
Gameday Gamblers……………43 points (11 first-place)
Buck Robbins………………….41 points (11 first-place)
Stankinator……………………..35 points (5 first-place)
This isn’t an exact science, but it is telling with the new schedules. Now that you will face your division rivals four times — that’s eight total divisional matchups — it is important to see how you match up against the rest of your division. It’s interesting to see that the American League West looks like it’s going to be a battle till the end. And I believe the Wild Card will come out of the American League East, so that means the West will be for the final playoff spot.
The National League will be interesting because the East is stacked with three quality teams, but they’re going to beat up on each other all season, which means its very possible that Ronald Duncan and Team Suck — if that’s how they finish in the NL West — may occupy two of the three playoffs spots in the National League.
Reality
The above was my fantasy prediction. Now, for the first time, I’m going to interject my opinion on the 2011 baseball season.
This has definitely changed over the last two months. It feels like it was just last week that I was driving home from work and listening to MLB Network Radio and hearing “five weeks until pitchers and catchers.”
Now, it’s the night before and I’m anxious as all hell — even if a Nor’Easter has different plans.
It may postpone a few games, but it will not ruin what is going to be an amazing season. There are so many interesting story lines to watch and I can’t wait for them to start.
Here are my predictions:
National League East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets
I feel the NL East will be almost what all prognosticators are calling for — except for the Mets. I’m not worried about the Phillies’ injury issues and “lack of hitting” because I think Jimmy Rollins is going to be excellent in the three-hole; I think Ryan Howard is going to be a beast and have a year similar to his MVP season; and I like Ben Francisco to provide a spark. Not the home run spark that Jayson Werth had, but the get-on-base and score runs spark.
And of course, the pitching will be solid.
I cannot say the same for the Mets. I overall like the Nationals better this season and I feel the Mets will be selling house — Jose Reyes and K-Rod will be shipped off by July — and the Nats’ offense will be enough to get them past the Mets in the division.
National League Central
1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros
Parker immediately just closed his browser. As a Reds fan, I know you can sit there and say, “We won the division last year. We have Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. How can you possibly put us fourth?”
Simple. Votto and Bruce aren’t pitching. Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez are not locks — Cueto is already on the DL — and outside of Bronson Arroyo, you don’t know what you’re going to get from this staff. Yes, there’s potential with Travis Wood, but Homer Bailey struggled through the spring and is on the DL. Mike Leake had a great start, but regressed and hasn’t shown that he’s ready to take over. The bullpen has some major questions, too. The best pitcher in the bullpen last season, Arthur Rhodes, is now in Texas, and Aroldis Chapman can throw 103 MPH, but he cannot locate consistently.
So with all that said, I’m on the Cubs bandwagon. I like their pitching staff, they have the best closer in the division — and maybe all of baseball — and Carlos Pena will drive in the runs that the Cubs didn’t score last season. Aramis Ramirez is in a contract year and he will bounce back after an awful 2010. Tyler Colvin will be in the roster more consistently and Starlin Castro is a star in the making. Mark it down. Cubs win! Cubs win!
If for some reason the Cubs fall short, it will be to the Cardinals; and the Brewers will take third. The big reason I have the Brewers in third and not the Reds is that the Brew-crew’s pitching staff is easily better with Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf and a guy named Yovani Gallardo, who is probably the best pitcher in the division.
National League West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
I dogged the San Francisco Giants on the blog earlier in the preseason, and for that, I’m sorry. This team is good — and I mean scary good. Yes, they have a great 1-2-3 punch with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner, but it’s the lineup that scares me. A healthy Andres Torres, addition of Miguel Tejada, the return of the Rookie of the Year in Buster Posey and a skinny, more athletic Pablo Sandoval is big for the Giants. Oh, and of course, they may have the next Rookie of the Year at first base. The Giants announced that Brandon Belt will be on the 25-man roster and he will be starting at first base on Opening Day. Scouts say he’s an even better hitter than Posey, and that’s hard to imagine at this point. The Giants will easily win the West, and I’m talking about winning it by 7 to 10 games.
National League playoffs
NLDS:Phillies over Cards; Giants over Cubs
NLCS:Phillies over Giants
American League East
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Surprised? You should be. Everyone has talked about the Red Sox all offseason, but I think you have to look at what’s going to happen during the season. I have no doubt in my mind that the Yankees are going to add an arm during the season, whether it’s King Felix or whoever is a hot pick at the trade deadline, the Yankees will get him.
But I don’t think it will even matter that much.
I expect C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes to be the studs they were last season, and I expect A.J. Burnett to bounce back. Last season, it was a Cole Hamels situation. Burnett helped the Yankees win the World Series in 2009, pitching on three days rest and logging a lot of innings. He had a troubled 2010 and in the spring already, he’s shown signs of coming back. Opponents are batting .191 against him and he’s struck out 11 with NO walks. Last spring, opponents were cranking out the hits and his strikeout:walk ratio was 10:13. This season’s 11:0 ratio is a tell-tale sign.
Now let’s look at the Red Sox. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are the real deal. But Josh Beckett and Jon Lackey are not. And the fifth spot is a mess. The Red Sox are going to score runs, and that will lead to wins, but they’re going to need some defense. So when I look at the two teams, I have to pick the Yankees because if they hold a lead heading into the seventh, the game is going to be over more times than it is not. If the Red Sox cannot get to the Yankees starting pitching in their pivotal matchups, Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera are going to shut the door almost every time.
(And no, Gina didn’t write this. In fact, it’s 11:12 p.m. and she’s, of course, sleeping on the couch aside of me. She’ll see this tomorrow for the first time.)
One other thing about the AL East. I love the Orioles and I can see them maybe taking over third from the Rays, but that will be tough to do. I see this team competing for a division title in 2012 or 2013.
American League Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians
Jim Leyland told a writer that he feels great about his team heading into 2011. The writer then said he hasn’t heard Leyland sound so optimistic in years.
This was a tough division to pick. I really think the Twins have a chance to take this division again in 2011, but I just like the big three pitchers in Detroit and I think if Miguel Cabrera can stay on the right track, he will be an MVP candidate. This is a guy who has a legitimate chance at winning the next Triple Crown. Adding Victor Martinez is big offensively, and a sophomore season for Austin Jackson and Brendan Boesch will bring good things.
Minnesota has pitching questions right now. I’m not sold on Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano yet. They had very good seasons in 2010, but I cannot say they’re going to be consistent and string two good seasons together. If they do replicate their 2010 seasons, they’ll be right there with the Tigers. If they don’t, they fall behind my third-place team, the White Sox. Already Jake Peavy is hurting and the lineup has some issues. They have the potential to win this division, but I do not see it happening. I do see Ozzie Guillen swearing a lot and getting into trouble on Twitter often.
Kansas City gets the fourth-place nod because of its offense, and it’s a shame the Royals didn’t go out and get a pitcher as well as keep Zach Greinke. You keep Greinke and add an arm and this team is competing for a division title. Maybe they can use one of their three big-time first basemen as trade bait to get a star pitcher for 2012.
American League West
1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners
I’ll be honest, this is the division I know the least about. But what I do know is that losing Cliff Lee is big for the Rangers. And losing Vladimir Guerrero is equally as devastating. A DH who hits for average and drives in runs is a luxury that many teams do not have. The Rangers will miss that.
Still, I have them winning the division because of two things: (1) the best bullpen in the division, which adds Arthur Rhodes to shutdown relievers like Darren O’Day, Darren Oliver and Neftali Feliz; and (2) Josh Hamilton. It cannot be underestimated how much he brings to the lineup and when you put guys like Michael Young and Adrian Beltre around him, it’s going to be a run-scoring lineup. The key will be C.J. Wilson and Colbuy Lewis. They have to pitch as well or better than last season.
I think the separation between first and third in this division will be less than 10 games and I could see Oakland making a run at this thing. Nevertheless, I’m keeping Texas at No. 1
American League playoffs
ALDS:New York over Texas; Boston over Detroit
ALCS:New York over Boson
World Series: Phillies over New York, 4-2.
I’m sure sleeping Gina would disagree, but you had to see a Phillies title coming out of this.
And that’d be good if none of us had any pitchers. So I put together my own spreadsheets and created the “Jammermetric Scale” to decide who will win each division. It’s not how I believe it’s going to finish, because I have my feelings about certain teams, but it’s based on projections, not feelings.
I compared each team to its division rivals, gave the team three points for every category that they will lead the division in. The team that was in second got two points and the team in last got nothing.
I used everyone’s optimal starting lineup offensively, and your top seven starting pitchers and four relievers.
Here’s how it panned out.
National League East
Jimmyjam Slammers…………49 points (13 first-place)
You’re F**cking Out…………38 points (4 first-place)
Vandelay Industries…………..29 points (7 first-place)
National League West
Ronald Duncan………………..49 points (15 first-place)
Team Suck…………………….40 points (2 first-place)
Backward Ks………………….26 points (6 first-place)
American League East
N.J. Bombers………………….44 points (8 first-place)
Sex Panthers…………………..36 points (10 first-place)
Bad News Bears………………29 points (3 first-place)
American League West
Gameday Gamblers……………43 points (11 first-place)
Buck Robbins………………….41 points (11 first-place)
Stankinator……………………..35 points (5 first-place)
This isn’t an exact science, but it is telling with the new schedules. Now that you will face your division rivals four times — that’s eight total divisional matchups — it is important to see how you match up against the rest of your division. It’s interesting to see that the American League West looks like it’s going to be a battle till the end. And I believe the Wild Card will come out of the American League East, so that means the West will be for the final playoff spot.
The National League will be interesting because the East is stacked with three quality teams, but they’re going to beat up on each other all season, which means its very possible that Ronald Duncan and Team Suck — if that’s how they finish in the NL West — may occupy two of the three playoffs spots in the National League.
Reality
The above was my fantasy prediction. Now, for the first time, I’m going to interject my opinion on the 2011 baseball season.
This has definitely changed over the last two months. It feels like it was just last week that I was driving home from work and listening to MLB Network Radio and hearing “five weeks until pitchers and catchers.”
Now, it’s the night before and I’m anxious as all hell — even if a Nor’Easter has different plans.
It may postpone a few games, but it will not ruin what is going to be an amazing season. There are so many interesting story lines to watch and I can’t wait for them to start.
Here are my predictions:
National League East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets
I feel the NL East will be almost what all prognosticators are calling for — except for the Mets. I’m not worried about the Phillies’ injury issues and “lack of hitting” because I think Jimmy Rollins is going to be excellent in the three-hole; I think Ryan Howard is going to be a beast and have a year similar to his MVP season; and I like Ben Francisco to provide a spark. Not the home run spark that Jayson Werth had, but the get-on-base and score runs spark.
And of course, the pitching will be solid.
I cannot say the same for the Mets. I overall like the Nationals better this season and I feel the Mets will be selling house — Jose Reyes and K-Rod will be shipped off by July — and the Nats’ offense will be enough to get them past the Mets in the division.
National League Central
1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros
Parker immediately just closed his browser. As a Reds fan, I know you can sit there and say, “We won the division last year. We have Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. How can you possibly put us fourth?”
Simple. Votto and Bruce aren’t pitching. Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez are not locks — Cueto is already on the DL — and outside of Bronson Arroyo, you don’t know what you’re going to get from this staff. Yes, there’s potential with Travis Wood, but Homer Bailey struggled through the spring and is on the DL. Mike Leake had a great start, but regressed and hasn’t shown that he’s ready to take over. The bullpen has some major questions, too. The best pitcher in the bullpen last season, Arthur Rhodes, is now in Texas, and Aroldis Chapman can throw 103 MPH, but he cannot locate consistently.
So with all that said, I’m on the Cubs bandwagon. I like their pitching staff, they have the best closer in the division — and maybe all of baseball — and Carlos Pena will drive in the runs that the Cubs didn’t score last season. Aramis Ramirez is in a contract year and he will bounce back after an awful 2010. Tyler Colvin will be in the roster more consistently and Starlin Castro is a star in the making. Mark it down. Cubs win! Cubs win!
If for some reason the Cubs fall short, it will be to the Cardinals; and the Brewers will take third. The big reason I have the Brewers in third and not the Reds is that the Brew-crew’s pitching staff is easily better with Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf and a guy named Yovani Gallardo, who is probably the best pitcher in the division.
National League West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
I dogged the San Francisco Giants on the blog earlier in the preseason, and for that, I’m sorry. This team is good — and I mean scary good. Yes, they have a great 1-2-3 punch with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner, but it’s the lineup that scares me. A healthy Andres Torres, addition of Miguel Tejada, the return of the Rookie of the Year in Buster Posey and a skinny, more athletic Pablo Sandoval is big for the Giants. Oh, and of course, they may have the next Rookie of the Year at first base. The Giants announced that Brandon Belt will be on the 25-man roster and he will be starting at first base on Opening Day. Scouts say he’s an even better hitter than Posey, and that’s hard to imagine at this point. The Giants will easily win the West, and I’m talking about winning it by 7 to 10 games.
National League playoffs
NLDS:Phillies over Cards; Giants over Cubs
NLCS:Phillies over Giants
American League East
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Surprised? You should be. Everyone has talked about the Red Sox all offseason, but I think you have to look at what’s going to happen during the season. I have no doubt in my mind that the Yankees are going to add an arm during the season, whether it’s King Felix or whoever is a hot pick at the trade deadline, the Yankees will get him.
But I don’t think it will even matter that much.
I expect C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes to be the studs they were last season, and I expect A.J. Burnett to bounce back. Last season, it was a Cole Hamels situation. Burnett helped the Yankees win the World Series in 2009, pitching on three days rest and logging a lot of innings. He had a troubled 2010 and in the spring already, he’s shown signs of coming back. Opponents are batting .191 against him and he’s struck out 11 with NO walks. Last spring, opponents were cranking out the hits and his strikeout:walk ratio was 10:13. This season’s 11:0 ratio is a tell-tale sign.
Now let’s look at the Red Sox. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are the real deal. But Josh Beckett and Jon Lackey are not. And the fifth spot is a mess. The Red Sox are going to score runs, and that will lead to wins, but they’re going to need some defense. So when I look at the two teams, I have to pick the Yankees because if they hold a lead heading into the seventh, the game is going to be over more times than it is not. If the Red Sox cannot get to the Yankees starting pitching in their pivotal matchups, Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera are going to shut the door almost every time.
(And no, Gina didn’t write this. In fact, it’s 11:12 p.m. and she’s, of course, sleeping on the couch aside of me. She’ll see this tomorrow for the first time.)
One other thing about the AL East. I love the Orioles and I can see them maybe taking over third from the Rays, but that will be tough to do. I see this team competing for a division title in 2012 or 2013.
American League Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians
Jim Leyland told a writer that he feels great about his team heading into 2011. The writer then said he hasn’t heard Leyland sound so optimistic in years.
This was a tough division to pick. I really think the Twins have a chance to take this division again in 2011, but I just like the big three pitchers in Detroit and I think if Miguel Cabrera can stay on the right track, he will be an MVP candidate. This is a guy who has a legitimate chance at winning the next Triple Crown. Adding Victor Martinez is big offensively, and a sophomore season for Austin Jackson and Brendan Boesch will bring good things.
Minnesota has pitching questions right now. I’m not sold on Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano yet. They had very good seasons in 2010, but I cannot say they’re going to be consistent and string two good seasons together. If they do replicate their 2010 seasons, they’ll be right there with the Tigers. If they don’t, they fall behind my third-place team, the White Sox. Already Jake Peavy is hurting and the lineup has some issues. They have the potential to win this division, but I do not see it happening. I do see Ozzie Guillen swearing a lot and getting into trouble on Twitter often.
Kansas City gets the fourth-place nod because of its offense, and it’s a shame the Royals didn’t go out and get a pitcher as well as keep Zach Greinke. You keep Greinke and add an arm and this team is competing for a division title. Maybe they can use one of their three big-time first basemen as trade bait to get a star pitcher for 2012.
American League West
1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners
I’ll be honest, this is the division I know the least about. But what I do know is that losing Cliff Lee is big for the Rangers. And losing Vladimir Guerrero is equally as devastating. A DH who hits for average and drives in runs is a luxury that many teams do not have. The Rangers will miss that.
Still, I have them winning the division because of two things: (1) the best bullpen in the division, which adds Arthur Rhodes to shutdown relievers like Darren O’Day, Darren Oliver and Neftali Feliz; and (2) Josh Hamilton. It cannot be underestimated how much he brings to the lineup and when you put guys like Michael Young and Adrian Beltre around him, it’s going to be a run-scoring lineup. The key will be C.J. Wilson and Colbuy Lewis. They have to pitch as well or better than last season.
I think the separation between first and third in this division will be less than 10 games and I could see Oakland making a run at this thing. Nevertheless, I’m keeping Texas at No. 1
American League playoffs
ALDS:New York over Texas; Boston over Detroit
ALCS:New York over Boson
World Series: Phillies over New York, 4-2.
I’m sure sleeping Gina would disagree, but you had to see a Phillies title coming out of this.
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