Fantasy baseball is all about finding the hidden gems, and in a deep keeper league, like the one I personally run with my fellow blogger, Steven Spillane (a.k.a., Choo), it’s even more important to find those players that are on the cusp of a great season.
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| Katy Perry, Left Shark inspired me How could I not go with a system like this? |
When you break it down, the deep keeper leagues provide two
styles of players to draft — the breakouts and the bouncebacks.
That’s why Choo and I had decided — emphasize had — to take a look at players
in each category, and at the time we decided to do this, we were fresh off an entertaining Super Bowl halftime performance and a
night of Grammys, so we thought, why not break it down Katy Perry-style?
But, after weeks of waiting, I got the Choo to finally admit that this isn't easy. For years, he'd dog me to get fantasy blog posts and League recaps up ASAP. He had business to take care of.
Now, after realizing how hard it is to balance life with writing, he has a greater respect for what I do.
So, with that out of the way, here's how I broke down my breakout candidates in Katy Perry-style — from "Darkhorse" to "Left Shark," I have it all covered. I just hope she doesn’t send her lawyers after me.
DARKHORSE
Jedd Gyorko, 2B, San Diego Padres
It’s been a bit of a rough go for the young Padres second
baseman. He had an OK start to his career in 2013, hitting 23 homers, driving
in 63 runs and scoring 62 on a .249 batting average in 486 at-bats. He finished
the year sixth in Rookie of the Year voting. His sophomore campaign was one to
forget, batting just .210 in 400 at-bats with 10 homers and 51 RBIs. He played
in only 111 games because of a midseason groin injury.
When he returned from injury, he continued to struggle until
September, when he batted .267 (24-for-90) with an on-base percentage of .365.
It’s nothing outstanding, but when compared to the .151 he batted in April and
the .186 in May, it’s a big boost.
Let’s also take a look inside the numbers for Gyorko. In
three years of minor league baseball (plus three games in 2013 and four in 2014),
Gyorko batted .326 with 68 homers, 283 RBIs and 260 runs. When he arrived in
San Diego, he had a lot of pressure to be that bat they’ve been waiting for.
Chase Headley was struggling and Yonder Alonso still hasn’t developed, and who
knows if he ever will.
That left plenty for Gyorko to do in a lineup that was one
of the worst in the majors. That’s evident from where he batted in the Padres
order last year. He was everywhere in the lineup except second and eighth. He
saw the most plate appearances at third, fourth and fifth in the lineup — at
least 100 at each spot — and it’s safe to say that he wasn’t being protected in
the lineup. Now, with Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and
Will Middlebrooks added to the roster, he won’t have the pressure to be the
offensive catalyst.
When you factor that in, along with production that will
happen around him and the success he had in September last season, I believe
we’ll see some of the numbers Padres fans expected to see when he was first
called up. I’m personally looking at
something like this: .288 average, 75 runs, 30 doubles, 25 homers and 82 RBIs.
(Maybe a few less homers and more runs scored if they put him at lead-off or
No. 2 in the lineup, which has been suggested.)
ROAR
George Springer, RF, Houston Astros
I think we’re about to see Springer put up an All-Star
season. He struggled quite a bit at the start of his big league career, taking
a .180 batting average in his May 3 contest against Seattle. Then, all of a
sudden, Springer woke up, hitting 10 home runs and raising his average 88
percentage points to .268 on May 29. He finished the month of May batting .294
with 10 homers, 22 runs, 25 RBIs. The next month and a half were troublesome as
he hit .227 in June and .160 in July before having his season end early due to
a quadriceps injury. In total, his first year in the majors produced a .231
average (295 at-bats) with 114 strikeouts. He did show power, hitting 20 home
runs, and he drove in 51 at-bats.
His struggles remind me of Mike Trout in 2011, when in 123
at-bats, he batted just .220 with five homers. We heard for a while how Trout
was a five-tool player, but he just didn’t show it right away. Then, all of a
sudden, in 2012, he blew up with the .326 average, 30 homers, 83 RBIS and 129
runs scored. Of course, we know what he’s done since.
Springer has many of those tools, too, and with a season of
experience and the injury behind him, I expect him to jump onto the scene in
Houston and be the next young star we mention with the names Trout, Clayton
Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner.
FIREWORK
Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
I know what you’re thinking: “How can Chris Archer break out
any more than he already has?”
Well, let’s just say that a 3.22 ERA in 2013 and a 3.33 ERA
in 2014 is just the beginning for this young, intelligent starting pitcher. If
you’ve ever heard him talk about the game, you’d understand why I think he’s
the next “David Price” for the Rays. The wins may be tough to come by with the
lack of offense expected in Tampa, but that shouldn’t stop him from posting
another great ERA and striking out 200 batters. He should be the next Ray to
finish high in the voting, if not win the Cy Young.
The biggest thing he will need to do is get back to throwing
first-pitch strikes, as he’s seen the percentage drop from 62.3 to 58.1 to 57.5
last year.
That’s what he did over his final 24 starts last season,
taking what was a 5.16 ERA on May 11 and dropping it down to 3.33 at the end of
the year. He did that by posting a 2.77 ERA in his final 149.1 innings.
I expect to see that kind of production over 34 starts this season, and with a
little luck on the offensive end, he may be able to get into the conversation
for Cy Young.
TEENAGE DREAM
Cody Asche, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
As a Phillies fan, I have to pick this one. I don’t have a
statistical reason for this to happen, it’s just a hope, because boy, do the
Phillies need something good to happen. They do have a few hopefuls in the
minors, but it would be nice to have a guy like Asche break out at the major
league level. He had spurts of success last season, most notably in May when he
batted .317 (19-for-60) with three homers and 12 RBIs. His average trended
upward toward the end of the season, so perhaps, my dream will come true.
LEFT SHARK
Taijuan Walker, SP, Seattle Mariners
Walker has been a bit of a quagmire for the Mariners.
Injuries and struggles at Triple-A last year have made Seattle fans wonder if
Walker is truly the player they thought he could be. He’s my “Left Shark”
because he’s truly just a little out of sync. He just needs a slight adjustment
to catch up with the Right Shark and look good.
And perhaps, that adjustment happened this offseason. The
Mariners changed up his offseason workouts to include more cardio and core
exercises. Seattle trainer Rick Griffin, in an interview with CBS Sports, said
that Walker’s body type is one that when he lifts weight, he gains muscle
strength rather quickly. So, the idea this offseason has been to have a more
even workout program.
“He’s doing things that basically center around his core,
his legs and his cardio,” Griffin said. “He’s not doing a lot of lifting for
his upper body other than things he needs to do to maintain his flexibility and
his shoulder strength. We feel going into spring that he’ll be a lot better off
in that way.”
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