Lets start by looking at a few key
items: Just his second full season in the big leagues, 10th in AL Offensive
WAR, second in runs, third in walks, and the accomplishment of a 20-HR/20-stolen
base season.
Did you expect the man who did
that to be Brian Dozier?
Neither did I.
In the barren Minnesota wasteland of Joe
Mauer’s contract sits a handsome, combed-mane of a man, who stands 5-11 and
gets paid a minuscule (in MLB terms) $540,000.
Forget that Dozier was an
unheralded prospect coming out of The University of Southern Mississippi.
Forget that in 2009, in 264 Rookie
League plate appearances, he hit zero homers and stole only three bases (although,
he did have a .414 OBP).
Forget that his 162-game
average in The Show is only .241.
Brian Dozier will be your No.
1-ranked second baseman in fantasy baseball in 2015.
Let’s take a look at his 2014 stat line:
.242 average, .345 OBP, 112 runs, 23 homers, 71 RBIs and 21 stolen bases. Not
too shabby outside of batting average — quite impressive actually.
Now lets look at why I feel 2015 is the
year Robinson Cano gets plowed over by the Bull-Dozier as the No. 1 fantasy
second baseman.
From 2013 to 2014, we have seen the
following trends from Dozier: An increasing walk rate, a decreasing strikeout
rate, an increasing line-drive percentage, increasing home run to fly ball
ratio, and an ever-growing head of hair that should be sponsored by American
Crew.
Dozier has all the warning signs of
a breakout 2015 campaign, though his highest BABIP in his 2½-year career is
.278, that coming in 2013. If Brian
Dozier can increase his hard contact rate and have a little bit of BABIP luck
(.310ish), we are looking at a second baseman who at his ceiling can produce a
.280 average, .39 OBP, 120 runs, 25 homers, 90 RBIs and 25 stolen bases.
You know what stat line that looks
similar to? Mike Trout’s 2014 campaign, but at a much weaker position. Trout’s
line was .287 average, .377 OBP, 115 runs, 36 homers, 111 RBIs and 16 stolen bases.
Now, let me be very clear. Bull-Dozier is not Trout, nor will he ever be. Just
merely showing that with some luck, and a shift of some HR to SB, we have a
VERY similar player depending on what stat categories your league has.
For myself personally, in an 11x11-league
with AVG-R-1B-2B-3B-HR-RBI-BB-K-SB-CS on the offensive side, Dozier becomes
immensely more valuable to me with his BB:K ratio and ability to hit 30
doubles, 20 homers and steal 20 bases.
Lets get one thing straight — let your
draft peers overreach on Dee Gordon, inexplicably draft Robinson Cano in
the first round, or drool over midget boy Jose Altuve and his .360 BABIP (#LOL
#FLUKE #UNSUSTAINABLE).
Concentrate on Dozier, as power is
rare in today’s game and Minnesota’s lineup should be a bit improved with Torii
Hunter and a full year of Kennys Vargas.
So go ahead and laugh at my predictions,
or my scattered post (first blog post ever), but come September 2015,
Dozier will be sitting at the top of the fantasy second baseman heap and I’ll
be giggling like a school girl in my third straight fantasy baseball World
Series trip.
You can follow me on the Tweeter at @thecubandynasty.
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