FB: 2011 Draft Preview

League Records Updated

It's almost draft time. We have five League members here getting ready to rock out the live draft. the rest will be online.

We have a mobile hotspot so if we lose power, all of our laptops are charged and the mobile hotspot will keep us going. The Chinese Organ Thieves is an assistant League Manager and he will pause the draft if we momentarily lose power.

So, with all the gloom and doom out of the way, let’s talk draft.

There are a lot of great players out there and it should certainly be an exciting first couple rounds.

Last season, it was rookie mania and new RB starters mania. Shonn Greene, Ryan Mathews, C.J. Spiller, to name a few. All three were busts.

This year, I feel like there will be more stable picks in the first couple rounds. Here’s my position by position breakdown of who’s available.

Quarterbacks
There are some really interesting QBs available, and with 10 teams keeping QBs, I only expect two to go in the first three to four rounds.

Big Ben, Eli Manning, Josh Freeman, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford and Kyle Orton are all quality choices, as is new Cardinals starter Kevin Kolb.

Matthew Stafford is a great QB when he’s healthy and Matt Cassel had a great season last year.

And of course there is Donovan McNabb in Minnesota, Jets’ Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Buffalo.

Lastly, Colt McCoy has had a great preseason and he could easily be a starter for a team.

The best of the bunch is clearly Ben Roethlisberger, and Sam Bradford looks to have what it takes to be the next great QB. Still, Josh Freeman may have the best season of all of these QBs. He had a breakout 2010 and many experts expect him to continue on with that.

Running Backs
Running backs. Ugh. This position has continued to get worse and worse in terms of drafting. Who knows? Really. Honestly. Who the hell knows? Last year, Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis and Darren McFadden emerged, while other “solid” backs faded.

So, here we go again with some top backs in Rashard Mendenhall, Frank Gore, Peyton Hillis, Steven Jackson, LeGarrette Blount on the board, to name a few, but it’s so hard to pick. Should you get the back that gets more carries and a few TDs, or should you go with the back who steals TDs like a Willis McGahee. They’re all out there and I’m sure several of us will look back and wish we would have drafted differently.

Gore and Mendenhall are clearly the best out there, and Matt Forte and Peyton Hillis easily could be top backs for a few teams.

I expect several of these guys to go early in the draft, possibly the first round, because they come at such a premium. Once you see the top four go, that should be your clue that your next pick better be a running back before you’re left with Cedric Benson.

Wide Receivers
Wideouts are the gold mine. Only four were kept, and left on the draft board are names like Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace and Reggie Wayne.

There are plenty of other wideouts available and a few will go in the first round, but there will definitely be some top tier WRs available in the third and maybe fourth rounds.

Obviously, I like Greg Jennings the most out of this group. Roddy White could be second on this list, but a few other wideouts have a chance to have big years, and maybe even bigger than White.

Mike Wallace, Calvin Johnson and Vincent Jackson all have the potential to have huge seasons — Johnson if Stafford stays healthy.

When it comes to late round WRs, I love the second and third options for QBs like Phillip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and all the other keeper QBs. I’ll also lump Big Ben, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford into this category.


Tight Ends and Everyone Else
Dallas Clark is the only one off the board. Everyone else if free.

Of the tight ends, Antonio Gates, Owen Daniels, Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez will be big pickups for owners, but for the most part, teams will target WRs for their WR/TE slot.

Defensively, the 2011 version of the Jets will be the Steelers and maybe the Eagles. We’ll have to see if someone pulls a Jammers and drafts them in the fourth round.

And as I said about kickers last year, who cares.


Channel 4 News Team
2010 Record, Finish: 12-4, Super Bowl Champion
Career Record : 38-34
Playoff Record (Appearances): 5-2 (3)
Keepers
It’s fairly easy to give this rating to the News Team. The No. 1-ranked RB from 2010 and the No. 2-ranked QB easily give him the best pair of keepers heading into 2011. Aaron Rodgers should continued to be one of the best QBs in the NFL, but it’s unknown if Foster can pick up from where he left off. We haven’t seen a dynamic fantasy back like Foster since LaDainian Tomlinson was running up points. Foster had 10 games where he scored more than 20 fantasy points. He does it again this year, and the News Team could be right back in the Super Bowl.

Last Year’s Top Pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB.
Funny that with the 10th pick in the draft, the News Team selected Moreno considering the success he had with his other back.

Last Year’s Best Pick: Clearly Arian Foster. The News Team scored big in the fifth round, selecting the Fantasy MVP with the 32nd pick. Just so all of us, myself include, can feel bad, 15 RBs were selected before Foster, including Ryan Grant, Shonn Greene, Ryan Mathews, Cedric Benson, Beanie Wells, C.J. Spiller, Brandon Jacobs, Justin Forsett and Jerome Harrison, to name a few.



Chinese Organ Thieves
2010 Record: 9-5
Career Record : 41-29
Playoff Record (Appearances): 2-3 (4)
Keepers
I wanted to rank his keepers with four stars, but stats don’t lie: Phillip Rivers was the fourth-ranked QB in fantasy and RB Adrian Peterson was No. 2. I think Rivers has a chance to be ranked No. 1 or No. 2 this year; however, I feel that Peterson has a chance to drop. Nevertheless, I thought the same thing last year, and look where he finished. Still, he brings the big-game or big flop potential. He had just as many 20-point-plus games as single-digit performances last season (5).

Last Year’s Top Pick: Reggie Wayne, WR
Wayne had a “quiet” season last year, grabbing 111 passes, but it wasn’t a big year because he had just six TD catches. Manning should find him more this season.

Last Year’s Best Pick: LeSean McCoy
At the end of the second round, with the 23rd overall pick, he took McCoy and boy was that a big lift for the Thieves. McCoy finished with 1,080 yards and seven TDs rushing, while adding 78 receptions for 592 yards and two scores. He was huge with the additional 0.2 points awarded for points-per-reception. Despite the big year, McCoy was traded away for a draft pick in the offseason and now the Graybill’s Generals will benefit from the great McCoy.


Graybill’s Generals
2010 Record: 4-9
Career Record : 34-36
Playoff Record (Appearances): 4-1 (2)
Keepers
LeSean McCoy is a great grab for the Generals. It took a trade, but it was well worth it to get a back who is just as much a threat as a receiver as he is a rusher. And Joe Flacco is only going to get better with Lee Evans stretching the field.

Last Year’s Top Pick: The Generals took Joe Flacco in the first round (of course this Ravens fan would) and the QB immediately became the franchise keeper.

Last Year’s Best Pick: The Generals first pick, Flacco, also was his best pick. The rest of the bunch of the 2010 draft class were not very impressive and that’s why he went 4-9 last season. He’ll look to improve that this year.


Dottsville Toasters
2010 Record: 6-7
Career Record : 37-32
Playoff Record (Appearances): 3-1 (2)
Keepers
This was a tough decision for the Toasters, but he went with Chris Johnson anyway. As of right now, it looks like Johnson will miss a significant part of the season, but then again, he could show up Week 1. Even if he does, his 2010 was nothing like his 2009 year. Still, 1,300 yards and 11 TDs would make anyone happy, including the Toasters. Matt Schaub will be solid with a Andre Johnson and a healthy Owen Daniels. … Oh, and a defense that can get him the ball will help.

Last Year’s Top Pick: Calvin Johnson was his No. 1 pick and he was a great grab. Just makes you wonder if he should have kept him instead of Chris Johnson.

Last Year’s Best Pick: His best pick was the very last pick of the draft, Michael Vick. Unfortunately, he did it as a joke at the time and he immediately dropped Vick after the draft. … Oops.


T-Money
2010 Record: 8-6
Career Record : 37-35
Playoff Record (Appearances): 2-5 (5)
Keepers
Dwayne Bowe is excellent. He’s a great keep. But, as I said last year, hanging on to Tony Romo is rough. He wins you games early every season, but then he either fades, or if it’s 2010, he gets injured. What’s next for this pretty boy? It’s a tough decision to get rid of a QB (trust me, I know; ex. Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers), but this has to be Romo’s make-or-break year with T-Money.

Last Year’s Top Pick: Shonn Green was the No. 1 pick for T-Money and he was one of seven first-round busts. Greene will likely go later this year, and T-Money will be wary to make the same mistake twice.

Last Year’s Best Pick: Dwayne Bowe in the third round was the best pick of the 2010 draft for T-Money. He may have a franchise wideout for the next couple years. Now if he can find a franchise QB.


Team Boyer
2010 Record: 7-6
Career Record : 36-34
Playoff Record (Appearances): 2-3 (3)
Keepers
Maybe Boyer should just change his team’s name to Team Brady. The man, the myth, the legend is back for a sixth season with Team Boyer and he should be as solid as ever with the edition of Chad Johnson (still refuse to accept the name change). At running back, Michael Turner is a churner and a burner and if he avoids injury, he’ll be a top back again, especially with Matt Ryan’s continued development.

Last Year’s Top Pick: Ryan Matthews went at No. 5 overall to Team Boyer and it amounted to four rushing TDs during the fantasy season, only two during the fantasy regular season. It wasn’t until Boyer missed the playoffs that Matthews scored two more TDs and posted two double-digit fantasy games. Oh, and to make matters worse, he rushed 26 times for 120 yards and three TDs in Week 17 for 32.5 points. That hurts.

Last Year’s Best Pick: There’s a reason why Boyer is keeping Brady and Turner for a second straight year: Because his draft last season wasn’t the best. Every player had a down year. Perhaps the Packers in the ninth round were the best.


Jimmy Jammers
2010 Record: 10-5
Career Record : 52-23
Playoff Record (Appearances): 6-4 (5)
Keepers
Matt Ryan is a top starter at QB, in my mind, and he will continue to grow as the weapons increase in Atlanta. The other keeper, Larry Fitzgerald should push this rating to four stars, but I went with three because he struggled last season with a bunch of bums at quarterback. With another new QB, supposedly better than any of the signal callers last season, his numbers should improve, but that is still an “if” at this point.

Last Year’s Top Pick: Roddy White was a beast, and after the Jammers traded for Matt Ryan, it was even a better draft pick. He easily could have been a keeper for this season, but then again, with the No. 1 pick, perhaps there’s a bit of strategy here. Hint, hint.

Last Year’s Best Pick: White could also be the best pick; however, the Jammers snagged the Jets defense in the fourth round, one pick before the Sunday Slackers were going to pick them up. As a result, the Jets scored 36.5 points in Week 12 to help the Jammers wrap up the No. 1 seed in the Liberty Conference, and they had 25.5 points in the Liberty Conference Championship game, helping advance the Jammers to the Super Bowl.


Sunday Slackers
2010 Record: 4-9
Career Record : 13-26
Playoff Record (Appearances): 0-1 (1)
Keepers
Ray Rice was a serious step up, but he brings a lot of what Adrian Peterson brings: Big games and big flops. He’ll win you a few weeks and disappoint you others. Nevertheless, for the Slackers, Rice is a serious improvement and he will complement Slackers career QB Drew Brees, who had a “down year” last season, and I’m sure he’ll have another “down year” this year, which means he’ll score a boat-load of points.

Last Year’s Top Pick: Cedric Benson was the first-round pick, but he surely wasn’t worth it. He wasn’t completely bad, but he wasn’t first-round good.

Last Year’s Best Pick: This is a bit of a toss up between Hakeem Nicks in Round 3 and Mike Wallace in Round 4. Both had big weeks during the season, and both had a few bad games. As a tandem, they were nice to have, but it didn’t translate into fantasy wins.


Jawz Attack
2010 Record: 4-9
Career Record : 4-9
Playoff Record (Appearances): 0-0 (0)
Keepers
I want to give this 3.5, but I can’t find the HTML code to do such a thing. Still, I think these two keepers can easily be a four-star combo. Injuries are the only reason I’m down-grading them. Maurice Jones-Drew is battling knee injuries that plagued him late last season, and DeSean Jackson had two concussions last season. Still, the two are explosive players and they’re the type of players who can explode for 20 or more fantasy points in a week and be a game-changer. They are a big improvement to the second-year franchise Jawz Attack, who may have a little more bite in 2011.

Last Year’s Top Pick: Ryan Grant was the No. 1 overall pick. He rushed 8 times for 45 yards and didn’t run again all season. An injury made him a bust, but it’s hard to tell whether or not he would have had a great season. He’ll definitely drop out of the first round this season.

Last Year’s Best Pick: Ben Roethlisberger was the best draft pick for the Attack. After five weeks of suspension and bye, Big Ben came out and scored big points week after week.


Fear and Loathing
2010 Record: 6-8
Career Record : 32-35
Playoff Record (Appearances): 0-3 (3)
Keepers
Michael Vick was one of the best fantasy starters last season — when he started. So that is the only reason why the Fear’s keeper status isn’t five stars. If Vick starts 16 games this season, it will clearly be a five-star keeper, because the other half of this tandem, Jamaal Charles is definitely five-star. He was quietly the third-best fantasy back last season. I see nothing but the same this season.

Last Year’s Top Pick: Pierre Thomas was yet another first-round back who went down with an injury and did not have an impact for his team.

Last Year’s Best Pick: Jay Cutler, maybe? To be honest, the Fear’s draft wasn’t that great. He turned into a decent team when he picked up the Toasters’ trash and claimed Michael Vick off of waivers. The wins started to come in after that.


Real Houserville
2010 Record: 9-6
Career Record : 25-19
Playoff Record (Appearances): 2-3 (3)
Keepers
Peyton Manning’s status may be up in the air, but it’s hard to doubt that he will play at some point this season and he will complete the typical Peyton Manning passes. Darren McFadden had a break-out season last year, being ranked seventh among fantasy backs. He has something to prove this season as he tries to make it two straight successful seasons. It’s a bit surprising that the Ville didn’t go with Mendenhall who has proven he can play, but Houserville wins regular-season games and it’s hard to doubt him at this juncture. We may look back in a few weeks and ask, “What if?” though.

Last Year’s Top Pick: Greg Jennings was his first round pick and after eight teams passed up on the wideout, its easy to say several teams dropped the ball — something Jennings rarely did. Twelve TDs last season easily made him among the best in fantasy football last season, and he’ll certainly do the same this season. I expect him to disappear in the first round this year, too; maybe a bit sooner than No. 8.

Last Year’s Best Pick: I’d say Jennings was the best player drafted, but the Ville’s best pick was Darren McFadden. Drafting fantasy’s No. 7 back from 2010 in the ninth round, Ville found himself a steal.


World of Noise
2010 Record: 4-9
Career Record : 26-43
Playoff Record (Appearances): 2-2 (2)
Keepers
Andre Johnson is awesome. Enough said. Dallas Clark, unfortunately for the Noise, was the next best option. He didn’t have a running back worth keeping, and he surely didn’t have a QB worth keeping. So he kept one of Peyton Manning’s favorite targets. If Manning is 100 percent, Clark will score some points and make the Johnson-Clark tandem a great choice for the Noise. But, that’s an “if.”

Last Year’s Top Pick: Chad Henne was the top pick and the World of Noise did it because he’s a Michigan grad. Perhaps this year, the Noise will put his Eagle and Wolverine biases aside and draft for real. Is that too much to ask?

Last Year’s Best Pick: Wes Welker would have to be the best of the worst picks for the Noise. He had a few good weeks, but he didn’t do enough to lift the Noise back to the Super Bowl.

2011 Draft Order
1. Jimmy Jammers (10-5) via trade with Slackers
2. Graybill's Generals (4-9) *
3. Jawz Attack (4-9) *
4. World of Noise (4-9) *
5. Dottsville Toasters (6-7)
6. Team Boyer (7-6)
7. Fear and Loathing (6-8)
8. T-Money (8-6)
9. Houserville (9-6)
10. Organ Thieves (9-5)
11. Sunday Slackers (4-9) * via trade with Jammers
12. Channel 4 News Team (12-4)

* Four-way tie-breaker came down to: Noise was 3-0 against the three other teams, Jawz was 2-2, Generals were 1-2, Slackers were 1-3. It's the biggest tie-breaker we've ever had in the JFL, and surprisingly, it wasn't for a playoff spot, it was for the No. 1 draft pick, something the Slackers have had before.

2011 Keepers

Jimmy Jammers
QB [player#11237]Matt Ryan[/player], ATL
WR [player#5528]Larry Fitzgerald[/player], ARI

Graybill's Generals
QB [player#11252]Joe Flacco[/player], BAL
RB [player#12514]LeSean McCoy[/player], PHI

Chinese Organ Thieves
QB [player#5529]Philip Rivers[/player], SD
RB [player#10452]Adrian Peterson[/player], MIN

Sunday Slackers
QB [player#2580]Drew Brees[/player], NO
RB [player#11289]Ray Rice[/player], BAL

Fear and Loathing
QB [player#2549]Michael Vick[/player], PHI
RB [player#11307]Jamaal Charles[/player], KC

Channel 4 News Team
QB [player#8439]Aaron Rodgers[/player], GB
RB [player#12497]Arian Foster[/player], HOU

Team Boyer
QB [player#2330]Tom Brady[/player], NE
RB [player#5679]Michael Turner[/player], ATL

Jawz Attack
RB [player#9646]Maurice Jones-Drew[/player], JAC
WR [player#11283]DeSean Jackson[/player], PHI

Real Houserville
QB [player#1428]Peyton Manning[/player], IND
RB [player#11238]Darren McFadden[/player], OAK

T-Money
QB [player#5209]Tony Romo[/player], DAL
WR [player#10467]Dwayne Bowe[/player], KC

Dottsville Toasters
QB [player#5615]Matt Schaub[/player], HOU
RB [player#11258]Chris Johnson[/player], TEN

World of Noise
WR [player#4461]Andre Johnson[/player], HOU
TE [player#4482]Dallas Clark[/player], IND

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