FB: 2011 Nittany South Preview: News Team, Thieves to battle for top spot; Channel 4 predicted to win division
The Nittany South was the JFL’s toughest division last season, and it will likely be that again in 2011.The News Team and the Organ Thieves, both Super Bowl Champions, battled down to the wire for the division title last season, and the Thieves wound up finishing on top forcing the News Team to play in the Wild Card round.
Just an extra win on the way to the Super Bowl V title for the News Team.
Both squads will remain elite in 2011 as they both boast the best QB-RB tandems in the JFL — News Team’s Aaron Rodgers and Arian Foster, and the Thieves’ Phillip Rivers and Adrian Peterson.
The Graybill’s Generals had a down year in 2011, but a former Super Bowl Champion himself, the Generals roll into 2011 with Joe Flacco and LeSean McCoy to counter his divisional rivals.
It should be an excellent race, as the poll suggests.
The News Team came out on top with seven of the nine first-place votes, earning 23 points in the poll. The Organ Thieves were close behind with 19 points and two first-place votes and the Graybill’s Generals had 12 points.
This is how I figure it will end, with Channel 4 finishing No. 1 in the ratings. However, Nielson ratings never take into account households with two televisions, so I can never count out the Organ Thieves. Both will make the playoffs, but obviously, only one will win the division. And Graybill, who struggled last season, will be a thorn in their side.
1. Channel 4 News Team
2010 Record, Finish: 12-4, Super Bowl Champion
Career Record : 38-34
Playoff Record (Appearances): 5-2 (3)
Quarterbacks ★★★★☆
I had originally given the News Team five stars at QB, but I had to demote him to four after he dropped his backup. He certainly has a five-star QB in Aaron Rodgers — hell, can he be six stars? — but the News Team’s QB situation is scary when you add in the “What if?” factor.
The Colts for years have rolled with Peyton Manning at QB with backups like Jim Sorgi and Curtis Painter, and the biggest fear in the world is, “What if Manning goes down?”
The News Team has to worry about this. Then again, if this happens, he can just quickly scoop up Matt Flynn. He just better hope his waiver priority allows him to do such a thing.
Nevertheless, I’m reaching here. In all likelihood, the News Team is in great shape with Rodgers. He’ll need to find a QB for the bye week, so congratulations to the Sunday Slackers. You get to face the News Team Week 8.
Running Backs ★★★★★
How about this? The News Team keeps the 2011 Gem of the Draft in Arian Foster and then he drafts the Co-Waiver Wire Gem of the Year in Peyton Hillis (Michael Vick gets the other half of that award). Add in two backs who have potential to grow after rough starts — Beanie Wells and C.J. Spiller — and the News Team looks primed and ready to run over everyone.
Foster is going to rack up the yards and TDs. Last season he was over the 20-point fantasy plateau 10 weeks, nine during the fantasy season. He won matchups for the News Team. He was the difference maker.
Hillis was the difference maker in many weeks for the Jimmy Jammers. If Hillis can repeat his early-season magic from 2010, that gives the News Team a heck of a trio in Rodgers, Foster, Hillis.
And if not, he may win with Wells and Spiller. One of those guys is bound to put up some points this season.
A breakout season would without a doubt put the News Team on the fast track toward Super Bowl VI.
Wideouts ★★★☆☆
The News Team may be banking on Spiller and/or Wells to explode so he can start an RB in the RB/WR slot, because the WR position is clearly the weakest part of this stacked championships squad.
Vincent Jackson is the best of the WRs by far and I expect him to have a huge season. Phillip Rivers will find him often, which is why this pick was especially important for the News Team since his division rival, Organ Thieves, has Rivers.
He’ll be able to minimize the damage when these two rivals meet up at the beginning and end of the season — and maybe again in the playoffs.
Jackson also will be key in other weeks.
The rest of the corps includes wideouts who have had big games but haven’t really put it all together. Miles Austin has come the closest, but still, he only had five 100-plus yard games last season. He had eight games where he caught 38 yards or less and six where he had 25 or less.
Lance Moore and Robert Meachum also have had some big games, but Brees spreads the ball around so much that it’s hard to pick who is going to have a big game.
That’s why the News Team may be looking toward a few young guys — Arizona’s Andre Roberts, Baltimore’ Tandon Doss and Baltimore’s Torrey Smith — to step up and be the next star.
Tight Ends ★★★★☆
Tony Gonzalez, a waiver-wire pickup, and a good one at that, will help out with the WR situation. If the News Team can get the RB trifecta going, he can start Gonzo in the WR/TE slot and then just use two WRs, which could work perfectly. Matt Ryan will continue to improve and with Julio Jones being added to the equation, Gonzo will find some space between Jones and Roddy White.
Team Outlook
Jealousy comes to mind when you see a team in the League who has Aaron Rodgers. It’s the same feeling you had for an owner who owned Peyton Manning and Tom Brady a few years ago (I’d say they’re starting to fade in fantasy popularity).
So the News Team should be set for the next couple years, and certainly this season.
I love the RBs if Arian can get healthy and Tweet me MRI proof that he is healthy.
The playoffs are certainly in the future for the News Team, and that would be four straight years for him. Yes, 2006 and 2007 are long forgotten.
2. Chinese Organ Thieves
2010 Record: 9-5
Career Record : 41-29
Playoff Record (Appearances): 2-3 (4)
Quarterbacks ★★★★★
That’s 5 stars for QBs and it means the Thieves are in great shape barring injury.
Phillip Rivers, in my predictions, is going to finish as the JFL’s top QB and compete for the MVP award. I can easily see 25-35 fantasy points per week from Rivers and that should work out just fine for the Thieves.
With a full season of Vincent Jackson, a better year from Ryan Mathews and other weapons like Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates, I see no reason why he will not finish the year with 4,000 yards passing and 30-40 TDs.
The backups on this team should not be needed, but if they are, it will likely be Ryan Fitzpatrick getting the ball. I think, fantasy-wise, he’s the better of the two. Mark Sanchez will take a step back this season and I don’t expect him to make a single start for the Thieves this season. Rivers’ bye week gives the Thieves the option of Sanchez vs. New England or Fitzpatrick vs. Philadelphia. That’s a tough choice. There’s the potential that the zero points scored by Rivers that week will be higher than what Sanchez and Fitzpatrick will muster against those defenses.
Running Backs ★★★★★
Adrian Peterson and BenJarvus Green-Ellis will start on a weekly basis for the Thieves. We all know what Peterson brings. He has his few tough weeks, but he has his monster weeks that put the nail in the coffin of any matchup.Green-Ellis doesn’t get a huge workload because of the way the offense is run in New England, but when the Pats get inside the 10, there are two plays that they love to go to. One is Green-Ellis up the middle for a TD, and two is Wes Welker on a slant where he either scores or gets tackled just shy of the goal line, and then it’s Green-Ellis time. He’ll have his games where he won’t score, but then he’ll get two short-yardage TDs for 12 points and a decent fantasy week, which makes him a solid No. 2 RB in fantasy.
Tim Hightower is an interesting pickup here. He’s had an excellent preseason and if Shannahan is looking to give him the ball on every down, he could shock some. Arizona never really used him the right way. The Cards used more of a passing offense that took away carries. Washington is far from a passing offense — hell, sometimes they are far from an “offense” period — so that should equal more carries for Hightower. That, and Jon Beck is really getting his first chance to start.
Also on this roster is a speedy Roy Helu, a rookie back in Washington, who will share the workload with Hightower, and Danny Woodhead, who is like a New Orleans receiver — when do you start him?
The key for the Thieves is he has both of his handcuffs — Helu for Hightower and Woodhead for Green-Ellis.
Wideouts ★★★☆☆
Like the News Team, the Thieves weakness is at wideout.
But there is hope.
Jeremy Maclin is entering Year 3. That tends to be the year WRs breakout. If they don’t do it by then, well, then maybe they should give up.
Maclin had 10 TDs last season and he could be due for a big season if teams try to cover — and emphasize, “try” — to cover DeSean Jackson.
Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne should make weekly starts for the Thieves, but their success depends on the Mannings. For Nicks, its up to Eli Manning to turn things around and stop throwing picks. For Wayne, it’s all about Peyton Manning getting healthy and then getting him the ball. A healthy Manning should find Wayne often.
I also like Lee Evans’ potential for 2011. He’s out of Buffalo and finally has a QB who can get him the ball. Joe Flacco has the arm to reach him and there should be a few long TD passes to him during the season.
Overall, this WR corps has potential to be better than what I’m rating it, but it’s going to take a few things to go right.
Tight Ends
Who needs tight ends? Not the Thieves.
Team Outlook
Last season was disappointing for the Thieves; all that hard work to win the division, only to lay an egg in the Nittany Conference Championship Game.
He’ll bounce back this season and get the Wild Card playoff berth, giving him the chance to get revenge against his rival News Team. Phillip Rivers will have a tough game against Baltimore on Conference Championship week so that could limit the points at QB, but it’s too far away to exactly predict what will happen at this point.
All the Thieves need to know is that he’s got the team to make the playoffs.
3. Graybill’s Generals
2010 Record: 4-9
Career Record : 34-36
Playoff Record (Appearances): 4-1 (2)
Quarterbacks ★★★½☆
This QB crew of Joe Flacco and Matt Cassel will do. They’re not Rodgers or Rivers, but they are capable of scoring points like them — just not on the consistency of Rodgers and Rivers.That’s why Graybill will be studying hard before matchups to make sure he picks the right QB for the week. If he plays his cards right and gets lucky on a few occasions, he could easily sneak into playoff contention.
I really liked Flacco going into 2010 and man, was I wrong. I still feel like Flacco is on the cusp of taking that next step toward being an elite NFL QB, but after last season, I’m a little cautious to name him the next breakout star. I, unlike the Redskins owner Daniel Snyder, do not make the same mistake twice.
Still, the Generals have to be happy to have him on his squad.
Cassel is a decent backup and has the chance to take over as a starter because he does put up fantasy points. He had five weeks of 30 or more fantasy points, and if he can be a bit more consistent, he could supplant Flacco on this fantasy team.
But in all likelihood, it will end up being what I said: Graybill will have to make sure to start Cassel for those five big weeks.
Running Backs ★★★☆☆
LeSean McCoy was a trade pickup in the offseason and he’ll be a huge point-getter for the Generals, but outside of that, the RB situation could be shaky.
I like Steven Jackson this season, especially with the continued development of Sam Bradford, but Jackson has a lot of miles and one has to wonder if he’ll hold up.
The other three backs — Jerome Harrison, Ryan Torain and LaRod Stephens-Howling — are in time-shares and they are not the first, and for some, second option.
There will certainly be a tough decision for the Generals when McCoy and Jackson are on the bye.
Wideouts ★★☆☆☆
This is where it is a bit scary for the Generals.
Kenny Britt can be a No. 1 WR, but he’s been busy being a No. 1 suspect with the Nashville Police Department. He had 775 yards and nine TDs last season, but 225 yards and three TDs came in the Titans blowout of the Eagles. Outside of that game, he was fairly quiet on the field.
The QB situation isn’t that great in Tennessee, so it will be interesting to see what Britt is able to do. With Chris Johnson signing, at least he won’t be the only offensive threat.
The only other WR that interests me on this team is Steve Breaston who rejoins his former offensive coordinator Todd Haley — now head coach. Breaston will line up opposite of Dwayne Bowe and should get some targets.
Then there’s Johnny Knox, Sidney Rice and Roscoe Parrish. Knox is on an awful passing team, Rice has move to Seattle where WRs go to disappear (a la T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Deion Branch), and Parrish is more of a special teams.
Donald Driver could help out, but he’s tough to start when he continues to fall down the depth chart. Still, he scored one of the coolest touchdowns I saw last season. Too bad he did it in the ugly throwback uniforms, so the replay makes you wonder who the hell he is.
Tight Ends ★★★☆☆
The Generals will certainly start a tight end each week with Vernon Davis and Chris Cooley on the roster. Their QB situations are shaky, so it could make it tough for them. Then again, shaky QBs often like to rely on tight ends, so this pair might work perfectly in the WR/TE slot.
Team Outlook
The Graybill’s Generals are the Cleveland Browns of the Nittany South. Let me explain before you go crazy. The Generals certainly are better than the Cleveland organization. (They’ve won a championship in the last 60 years.)
What I’m getting at is, I think the Browns will be a good team this year. Looking at their schedule, I could easily see the Browns going 10-6, 9-7. Still, they’re in a division with the Ravens and the Steelers, who will both be better than that.
That’s where Graybill comes in. He’s got a team that will perform much better than last year’s squad, but he will still have to face the fact that he’s stuck behind the News Team and the Thieves.
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