FB: JFL AFC East Division Preview

Last, but certainly not least, the AFC East.

First of all, thank you to the Slackers and the Attack for being patient. They know I wait until last to do this preview just because I don’t want to be selfish and throw out my preview first.

But alas, they have a preview to read that actually means something to them.

Then again, written by their rival, it could mean nothing because of its completely biased overtones.

Add in the fact that the Jammers are a bit salty about losing the division title in 2011 for the first time in his franchise’s history, and you may have the makings of a FOX News story on how President Obama performed over the last four years.

As is the case for both stories, the writer can’t avoid the facts, and the facts are, the Slackers won it in 2011 and they were predicted to win the AFC East again in 2012.

The Slackers earned 22 points and five first-place votes in the AFC East Division preseason poll.

The Jammers placed second with 19 points and two first-place votes, and Jawz Attack was third with 13 points and two first-place votes.

The Attack wasn’t getting much love in the poll, so perhaps the majority of the League expects the Attack to give up another 1,600 points in 2012.

I doubt that will happen, but Attack still has a mountain to climb with the two best teams from the 2011 season in his division.

The Slackers and Jammers combined for 19 regular season wins last season — the next best divisional duo combined for 15 — and they’ll certainly make it hard on Jawz again in 2012. His real battle will be winning those divisional matchups. He can’t go 1-3 or 0-4 within the division. Even 2-2 will make it tough. Legitimately, he’ll need a 3-1 or 4-0 record to compete in this division.

And that won’t be easy.

The main reason for that are Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford. With the Slackers and the Jammers both owning two of the NFL’s three 5,000-yard passers in 2011, it’s shaping up to be a big QB battle in the AFC East.

The Week 2 and Week 12 matchups between the two rivals will certainly weigh heavy on the division title. Last season, they split the regular-season series, allowing the Slackers to take the division title. The Jammers would have won it with a sweep.

That’s how close it was.

And that’s how close it will be again.


1. Sunday Slackers
2011 Record, Finish: 10-4, lost in AFC Championship game.
Career Record : 23-30-1 (.435)
Playoff Record (Appearances): 0-2 (2)
Quarterbacks
It’s hard not to give the Slackers five stars. Drew Brees is as advertised and nothing will stop him from doing what he did last season — not even the coaching shakeup.

The backups, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill, should combine for just one start in 2012, and that’s during Brees’ bye week.

If they find themselves starting more, it means that Brees is injured — there is a bounty out for him this year, right? — or somehow they’ve risen to fantasy super star status.

I expect neither to happen and Brees to help the Slackers win 8 to 10 regular season JFL games.

Running Backs  
Ray Rice is back, but Matt Forte is gone.

Now, it’s up to Reggie Bush or Cedric Benson to become the No. 2 RB that gives the Slackers the dynamic duo he loves to own.

But, I don’t see it happening.

I think Bush takes a step back this season — not because of anything he does, but rather because of how the Dolphins' season will play out. They have a tough schedule — especially for running backs — and they'll be playing from behind a lot. The Slackers should know this considering I passed on keeping and drafting him again. (There’s that bias I was talking about.)

As for Benson, I think it will be tough for him to be consistent touches in Green Bay. The Packers say they want to run more, but can you honestly believe that? You know Rodgers wants to throw upward to 40 times a game, and he will. Benson will struggle to get the 15 to 20 carries needed to be a viable RB in fantasy football.

He’ll have a few weeks where he get some TDs because one of the receivers is tackled at the 2-yard-line, but outside of that, it’s Discount Doublecheck time.

Also on the roster is Peyton Hillis, who is so 2010 — or as my girl Fergie would say, “so two thousand and late.” Boom Boom Pow! ... Which is kind of how Hillis runs, which is why he may take away a couple Jamaal Charles goal line carries, but that should be it. No matter what, Hillis will be an unpredictable and unreliable option.

Wideouts
When it came to selecting keepers, I’m sure Parker had a wish of keeping three players instead of two. If that was the case, he certainly would have kept A.J. Green.

But he managed to draft Green back to the Slackers in the second round of the draft — which is odd because I was sure he’d take him with his first-round pick.

Instead, he chose Greg Jennings with that pick, which means he has Jennings ranked higher than Green. That’s not how I see it.

In fact, if the Slackers really wanted to make a dent at wideout, he should have used his first two picks to welcome back two 2011 Slackers, not just one.

Jordy Nelson is going to be the much better WR option in Green Bay again this season. Jennings will have some big games, like he did last season, but Nelson will finish higher than him in overall rankings.

As for Green, he is just going to continue to be a major WR threat in the JFL and was a steal in the second round. I really thought about taking him with one of my two picks that were before the Slackers, but (1) I had to take care of my hole at RB and (2) I had Antonio Brown ranked higher than Green in my personal rankings.

But for everyone else to let Green slip to the second round, shame on you.

I like Green for more than 1,000 yards and more than 10 TDs — hopefully not during JFL divisional play.

The Slackers made some great selections to back up his top two WRs, grabbing Torrey Smith, who has breakout potential, and Mike Williams, who has comeback potential. Williams had an awful 2011 season, but that was more of a reflection on the team’s horrid year as opposed to his personal play. We have to remember, Williams is only a year removed from 964 yards and 11 TDs in 2010.

If the Bucs get back to playing football instead of whatever the hell they were playing last season, Williams should be a great sleeper pick. He’s so much of a sleeper that I personally didn’t even have him on my draft board, and I should have. At the moment he was selected, all I could do was look up at the Slackers, give him a thumbs up and say, “Wow. Excellent pick.”

Randall Cobb also is on the team, but he’s just a sleeper who may not wake up until 2013. Certainly not worthy of a thumbs up and a compliment.

Tight Ends
At tight end, the Slackers selected the oft-injured Antonio Gates. When healthy, we’ve seen what he can do. He can completely flip the scrip on a fantasy matchup. He used to own all the JFL tight end records until Rob Gronkowski played Godzilla on the record book, stomping on every single-game record like it was a fake, plastic high-rise.

With the high likelihood that he’ll miss time due to injuries, it’s impossible to give Gates the five-star rating he deserves. And backup tight end Ed Dickson doesn’t make it any better.

Team Outlook
On paper, comparing this draft to last year’s draft, I have to say the Slackers have taken another step forward. With several top-tier fantasy players, there’s no other way to describe the Slackers other than “Super Bowl Contender.”

We’ll just have to wait and see if he plays the role of “No. 1 Seed Bust” again.


2. Jimmy Jammers
2011 Record, Finish: 12-4, Super Bowl VI Champion
Career Record : 64-27 (.703)
Playoff Record (Appearances): 9-4 (6)
Quarterbacks
Giving myself five stars could be considered selfish … only if I didn’t have Matthew Stafford at quarterback.

The Lions QB joined Brees and Brady in the 5,000-yard passing club last season, and he has supplanted the QB that I have highly rated for this season. Matt Ryan was the Jammers keeper in 2011 and he didn’t do anything to hurt his status as a top-tier QB, Stafford just played out of his mind in his first full healthy season.

There’s always the fear that Stafford could re-injure his shoulder, but he looks to be in good shape after a full 2011 season. If anything happens, the Jammers does have Jake Locker and Matt Cassel to back him up. Locker has a great upside and Cassel should put together a decent season with the Chiefs. With Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki returning, and a full season of a wiser Jon Baldwin, the offense should be good enough to lead the Chiefs to the AFC West crown.

The Jammers just hopes he doesn’t need Cassel to win the AFC East crown.

Running Backs ½
For the past couple seasons, the Jammers has found success in under-the-radar running backs.

In 2010, it was BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Peyton Hills leading the way.

In 2011, it was Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews.

In 2012, the Jammers hopes to get similar surprises from Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Williams. Mendenhall is out for a little bit, but should return by October, while Williams also is returning from injury and looks to be ready to take over if Beanie Wells falters.

But if they do not surprise the JFL in 2012, the Jammers two top-10 RBs from 2011 on the squad. The Jammers are the only team in the JFL to boast two top-10 RBs from 2011.

Darren Sproles, ranked No. 3, was taken in the second round and Ryan Mathews, ranked No. 8, was brought back a little later in the draft to lead this team again in 2012.

Houserville joked and said in the draft that the Jammers' team was looking much like it did in 2011, and for the time being, there’s no reason to change that. Sproles is an integral part of the Saints offense and Mathews, once he returns to the lineup, will be a top fantasy back again. He was going in the first round of my fantasy drafts before he broke his clavicle.

The Jammers also grabbed Ronnie Brown to possibly take over while Mathews recovers. Also a potential backup to Mathews is Dexter McCluster, who has RB status despite lining up mostly at WR. Just another way for the Jammers to own an extra wideout.

Wideouts
The position that the Jammers loves got a facelift in 2012.

Out is the beloved Larry Fitzgerald. The love is still there, but the production isn’t.

Stepping in is Julio Jones, who I personally believe will be at top-five WR at the end of this season. The Falcons offensive coordinator wants Jones to be more involved and Matt Ryan will have no issues with that.

Antonio Brown, the Jammers' first-round pick, also returns for 2012, and he too should finish high in the WR ranks. Brown had 11 double-digit fantasy performances during the NFL season, including a big 25.1 points in the Wild Card round of the JFL playoffs. He finished ranked No. 9 in the JFL among WRs. Ben Roethlisberger seems to target him a lot, and the return of Mike Wallace should allow Brown to continue with the underneath receptions that he can easily break for long TDs.

The third WR, who will likely own the FLEX, is Titus Young. He’s a name you may not think about and he’s certainly a sleeper in the fantasy world. Young was a big part of the offense, especially late in the season, and considering the lockout kept him from learning the offense until August, he may have just taken some time to sync with Stafford. Fast forward to 2012 where he was impressive in camp, catching passes left and right from Stafford, and there’s a chance he could be a great third option at WR for the Jammers.

If not, Michael Crabtree, Jon Baldwin and Austin Collie all have potential — but I'm certainly not ready to consider them viable fantasy options yet. Collie has been dealing with concussions, Baldwin had only one good game last season and Crabtree was a fantasy nightmare outside of four weeks last season. Baldwin is the most talented out of the three, yet it's tough to say he's going to be the most productive.

Tight Ends
There was a point where the first tight end off everyone’s board was Tony Gonzalez. He’s passed that torch along and watched it move on to several players a few times now (to Dallas Clark to Antonio Gates to Rob Gronkowski) but yet, Gonzalez still puts up the points. He had six double-digit performances last year, and I think he’s got eight in him for 2012. As I have lamented on over and over again, the Falcons offense will have a lot of love to go around, and Gonzalez should get a good amount of red zone targets in 2012.

If not, the Jammers doesn’t have a backup — yet.

Team Outlook
Awesome.

OK, just kidding.

I do think this squad has a chance to compete for the division and the Super Bowl, but it really relies upon a few repeat performances from Sproles, Brown and Mathews, and a few correct predictions in Jones and Young. Many things can go wrong if even two of those predictions are way off.


3. Jawz Attack
2011 Record, Finish: 4-9
Career Record : 8-18 (.308)
Playoff Record (Appearances): 0-0 (0)
Quarterbacks
The unluckiest team in the JFL a season ago had a chance to add some luck (Andrew Luck) to his team, but instead, he went for the poor man’s fantasy quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger.

Don’t get me wrong, the poor man’s QB has won me a Super Bowl and taken me to another. I like him. Big Ben is always underrated in fantasy and just good enough to get you wins more often than not. Last season he had eight 20-plus-point fantasy performances and could have been a big help for the Attack.

Last season he drafted Big Ben, too, but he traded him away for Wes Welker. The trade worked out as Welker became the No. 2 WR in fantasy football and earned keeper status with the Attack.

Now, the Attack has both on his team.

He also brought back Josh Freeman, who was a major disappointment in 2011, but as I’ve mentioned in other previews talking about the Bucs wideouts, Freeman should have a better season. I can’t put into words how much of a mess the Bucs were last season. They will be much better, and if Freeman looks like the guy who surprised the NFL in 2010, the Attack may make him the No. 1 QB over Big Ben.

Either way, I think he has two good options. … And one really bad one in Blaine Gabbert.

Running Backs ½
See, this is why I waited until Monday to write the AFC East previews. If I wrote this on Saturday, I would have been all like, “Oh, looks like the Jawz made a mistake with Mr. Holdout, Maurice Jones-Drew.”

And then I would have looked like a fool.

Jones-Drew announced Sunday that he’s returning to the team and I imagine he’ll get the start in Week 1. Then again, the Jags could ease him back in since Rashad Jennings is a viable back. Still, Jennings is not MJD.

That said, no matter when Jones-Drew gets back into the lineup, the Attack needs to have the MJD of 2011 back.

Even with him back in the lineup, there has to be some concerns. Chris Johnson did something similar in 2011, missing all of preseason and looking like crap many times during the regular season.

If there’s any way to separate the two instances, it is in the fact that Johnson returned with a big contract, Jones-Drew didn’t. That means Jones-Drew is going to be running hard for that next big deal and that could work out for the Jawz.

If not, it’s up to Donald Brown, Shonn Green and Shane Vereen.

I’ll tackle these in order.

First, let’s talk about Brown. I like him for 2012. I think he has some real Darren Sproles-like potential, catching screens and breaking big runs. He’ll be relied upon heavily with a rookie QB, and I think the Jawz could have himself a surprise star of 2012.

Second, Green. I wasn’t kidding when I asked if Jawz made a mistake on draft day. That day I said, “Oh, I thought it was a mistake because it read ‘Shonn Greene’ on my screen.” I do not like Green whatsoever, just as I don’t like the Jets to do much this season. I don’t care how good your defense is, you can’t win with that offense.

Third, Vereen. It's a name that causes World of Noise to make a face similar to the one George W. Bush would make at every word in the final round of a national spelling bee. Jawz got Vereen in a trade that happened before some people even got the chance to digest the food they ate at the 2012 draft. I’m not sure what to expect here because he’s in New England where running backs are not used often, and that becomes a problem when he’s battling Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead for time.

Wideouts
It’s the best WR trio in the JFL, says Jawz.

On paper, yes. Wes Welker, without a doubt, is a No. 1 wideout, and with him playing for a new contract, he should only be better in 2012.

Larry Fitzgerald was the first-round pick of the Jawz Attack, and Jawz must know something about John Skelton that I don’t, because the last time I checked, the QBs in Arizona failed miserably in the “Broad Side of the Barn” contest held last week.

OK, that’s a little harsh for Skelton (not for Kevin Kolb), but still, it’s a shame Fitzgerald has to deal with such problems. He’s certainly better off with Skelton, who actually understands that Fitzgerald is a viable option at WR.

Kolb forgets that he has a potential Hall of Famer out there. It's like if Tom Cruise had ignored Jack Nicholson in "A Few Good Men." That movie would then look like the Cardinals offense. Bland.

Still, I can see Fitzgerald getting about eight double-digit weeks, and he certainly has the potential to get a lot more, but I doubt it.

The third WR in this triumvirate is Steve Smith, the real one. He had 10 double-digit weeks during the 2011 fantasy season, and he should only get more points in Cam Newton’s second year at the helm. Newton should be more comfortable with passing, and we should see some big connections with Smith.

Outside of the three guys who will start on a weekly basis for the Attack, there are Michael Floyd, Randy Moss and Jerome Simpson. Floyd is interesting in that he and Fitzgerald could vie for "the best WR duo to not be able to show that they are the best WR duo in the NFL." By that I mean, if Skelton shocks the world, the Attack has two fantasy stars in the desert.

Moss is washed up and there shouldn’t be anything expected of him.

Simpson is suspended and he is only cool because he once did a back-flip into the end zone, a place where he landed only four times in 2011. In Minnesota, where the worst team in the NFL plays, he won’t flip the script and catch any more than that.

Tight Ends
The Attack should roll with Jermichael Finley, who scored eight touchdowns last season, on a weekly basis. The Packers will continue to air it out and he’ll be on the other end of several Aaron Rodgers passes.

Anthony Fasano is a good option at tight end only if Ryan Tannehill immediately makes an impact for the Dolphins.

Team Outlook
Overall, I like this team. It’s got some question marks, but as long as the Attack doesn’t give up 1,600 points, he should be in line for more than four wins in 2012.

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