BB: 2012 Draft Preview

Ichiro Suzuki

The 2012 draft offers up some interesting names — names that tell some of us that we’re getting old.

Torii Hunter, Carlos Beltran, Kevin Youkillis and Ichiro Suzuki are among those names that stand out in this 2012 draft. Their fantasy owners have moved on to younger and better options, like Demi Moore (Poor Bruce Willis).

The first three names are understandable because of a lack of production last season and injuries, but Suzuki is a surprise.

However, when you look at the lineup he was excluded from, you can clearly see why he was the odd man out.

Still, seeing him not as a keeper was something I knew would happen someday, just not this soon.

He’ll likely be a first-round pick in 2012, though, because he’s still going to hit for about .300 and potentially lead the Majors in singles.

And I’m sure he’ll be joined by several of the other key bats that are available, because that seems to be the trend. Everyone has their eyes on starting pitching in the first couple rounds, but when the bats start going and everyone joins in. And then a reliever went to start the third round, causing five more relievers to follow in the next 11 picks.

In fact, when it came to starters, only seven went in the first three rounds — four in the first, two in the second and one in the third.

We’ll see if that holds true again this Sunday.

Yu Darvish

The biggest thing to look out for is where the starting pitcher Yu Darvish goes. There’s been so much hype surrounding the pitcher, yet he’s had the same issues that every other Japanese pitcher has had. He’s having command issues and he’s running too many counts to 3-2 — he walked three and hit a batter in his last outing. The biggest adjustment for Japanese pitchers coming to America is learning how to pitch off their fastball.

In Japan, they’re used to pitching off their change-up/breaking ball. Nolan Ryan says this is something they’re working on with Darvish, but we really haven’t seen it this spring.

Darvish, in the world of fantasy, is a high-risk, high-reward player. His average draft position is around 115, and since we start at 205, I’m sure he’ll go early because someone has to take a chance on him; the question is, who?

One thing is for sure, if Parker drafts him and Darvish has a mega-year, we’ll never hear the end of it. So don’t let Parker draft Darvish — I feel a DirecTV commercial idea coming on.

Another interesting import is Yoenis Cespedes. We all heard the “great” things about this guy, and then he started playing. He’s another high-risk, high-reward player in fantasy. He’s 5-for-25 thus far in spring training and with a pair of multi-hit games, he’s left the field with several oh-for performances.

To perhaps help you avoid some oh-for performances, here’s a quick look at what’s out there.

Arms Race

Gio Gonzalez

Yu Darvish isn’t alone out there when it comes to pitchers, and many of the “known” pitchers could push Darvish to the second or third rounds.

There’s a pair of 200 strikeout guys in Brandon Morrow and Matt Garza, who I would personally take before I take Darvish. The wins will be limited and the ERA will be floating around the 4.00 area, but they’ll provide the punchouts.

So will guys like Ryan Dempster, Gio Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez, Brandon Beachy, Bud Norris and Ervin Santana. They’re some of the notable pitchers out there.

Gonzalez will be one of the top hurlers for the Nationals, and he has the resume to be their Opening Day starter, but Stephen Strasburg stole that role. I predict at least 13-15 wins for Gonzalez this year, if the Nats’ offense lives up to its potential.

Santana and Sanchez also have the potential to put up big win totals just based on their teams. The Angels and Marlins, like the Nationals, will all be in the running for division titles and playoff spots — in my opinion — so having pitchers from contending teams are always a bonus.

There are some young guys and a few players who had decent seasons last year who are interesting picks, but I have to say, the most interesting pitcher out there could be Johan Santana. He’s had an impressive spring and if he’s back, man, is that a pitcher to have on your roster.

I’m not sure he’s first-round worthy because with the Mets lack of offense, Santana will be forced to win 3-2, 2-1 and 1-0 games, but I imagine he has to be on some radars — especially for those who don’t care to have Mets on their team.

Still, I’d expect some relievers to come off the board before Santana. Several potential 30-save candidates out there, so I imagine a few will go in the third round as they did last year.

Brian Wilson, Jim Johnson (not me), Carlos Marmol; the list goes on. Joe Nathan, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Motte. There’s a lot there so when one goes, you don’t have to freak out as much as everyone did last season.

However, when you see four or five go; well, it may be time to jump on the RP train.

Catchers
Here’s to hoping you’re set at catcher, because it’s slim pickings, as usual.

There was a gem of a catcher set to be available but Salvador Perez went down with an injury and he’ll miss a good portion of the 2012 season. To me, he was going to be the star of the first couple rounds — especially in the catcher category. I was projecting a huge breakout year for him.

Russell Martin

Now, there’s a few interesting catchers, but the gap between the best available catchers and the rest is quite big. Russell Martin, Kurt Suzuki and A.J. Pierzynski are the best hitters out there. There are a few reaches out there with guys like Geovany Soto, John Buck, Rod Barajas, Miguel Olivo and Chris Iannetta, but not one in particular you would want to have as your everyday starting catcher.

There are a few young guys out there, like Devin Mesoraco and Willin Rosario who could provide a surprise, but Rosario batted .204 in his 2011 call-up and Mesoraco batted .180. It was limited time, but still, they didn’t exactly come to the Major League and impress.

Mesoraco played much better when I covered him in 2005, when he was playing for Punxsutawney. I don’t remember much about the game, but I just know I had him in my game story.

That’s another sign of me getting old. Kids who I covered playing high school ball are now in the Majors. … And he’s not the only one, but I won’t be writing about the next one until 2013/14.

First basemen
I was going to split the batters into three categories, “Catchers,” “Infielders” and “Outfielders,” but there’s just too much available at first base to mix it in with the infielders.

There are a few in here that have eligibility at multiple positions — Michael Cuddyer (RF), Michael Morse (LF), Mitch Moreland (RF), Aubrey Huff (RF) and Daniel Murphy (2B, 3B) — and then there’s a few straight up first basemen — James Loney, Gaby Sanchez, Ike Davis, Todd Helton and Casey Kotchman.

James Loney

All are interesting first basemen, and since the majority of the league kept first basemen, these guys should be on the board for a while, but within this pool of 10 first basemen, there has to be one or two breakout seasons in there, so there’s going to be some big winners here.

And my list didn’t cover all of them either.

Kendrys Morales and Justin Morneau are out there, too, but there’s a real big question about whether or not they can return from their injuries. Twenty-two months later, Morales is still missing spring training games because of discomfort in the ankle and Morneau is 3-for-30 this spring (.100).

They’re in the same boat as Johan Santana. A great pick if they can put it all together and make a bid for Comeback Player of the Year, but a waste of a pick if they fizzle out and/or land back on the DL.

The guys I really like here are Moreland, Loney, Helton, Sanchez, Davis and Kotchman.

Helton and Kotchman continue to hit around .300 despite everyone’s expectation of a decline, and Moreland and Sanchez find themselves in big hitting lineups. Loney just stands out because he’s in a real crossroads situation for me. He’s got the potential, but he hasn’t lived up to it since his back-to-back 90-RBI seasons in 2008 and 2009.

Since then, the average has been down, as has the production. Entering his sixth year, he stands out to me as a player who really needs to step up for the Dodgers, otherwise, he’s going to be replaced by a big-money first basemen, perhaps Joey Votto — sorry Parker.

Infielders to the left of first base
Here, you’ll find a bunch of players who are either in platoons or haven’t proven themselves yet, especially at second base and shortstop. If you don’t have a top-notch player any of these positions, it’s time to build for the future while finding a suitable stand-in until that future player arrives.

Marco Scutaro

Stand-in king: Marco Scutaro. The 10-year veteran is listed atop the shortstop list when you sort by hits, but he’ll be a second baseman soon. Give him 10 games at second base for the Rockies — so mid-April — and ESPN will give him second base eligibility.

Shortstop Dee Gordon showed some promise after batting above .300 in 54 games last season for the Dodgers and Jhonny Peralta is an interesting pick just because of the lineup he’ll be in — can’t hurt to be batting with Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera.

Third base is similar in that there are some journeymen and then a few unknowns. Take Danny Valencia. He’s had some good streaks in Minnesota, but then he’s had some really bad streaks that have made him not a desirable pick. Young players like Chase Headley, Brent Morel and Sean Rodriguez (2B, SS) also fall into that category at 3B.

Maybe one of the most interesting players in this whole category could be Mat Gamel, Prince Fielder’s replacement. He’s listed at third base, but like Scutaro, he’ll have new eligibility in mid-April. This spring, he’s batting 9-for-26 with three homers and seven RBIs. With only two strikeouts in 26 at-bats, he could be just what the Brewers need.

And he may be what you need, too.

Outfielders
The outfield is looking much better than the infield, especially in center field.

There are several speedsters who will get you stolen bases — Austin Jackson, Cameron Maybin, Denard Span, Angel Pagan, Nyjer Morgan, Ben Revere, Alex Rios, Jason Bourgeois and Peter Bourjos.

And then there’s Yoenis Cespedes.

I’d take speed over the unknown any day.

Left field and right field has some big bats that will drive in runs.

There are a few platoon options out there, but the biggest names that could provide the best seasons in the corner outfield positions are Andre Ethier, Michael Cuddyer, Jeff Francoeur, Carlos Beltran, Allen Craig and J.D. Martinez.

Ryan Ludwick

Ryan Ludwick hasn’t been the same since he was traded from St. Louis, but with the Reds, he could be an interesting candidate for a re-breakout season. He’s only batting .273 in the spring, but I have to imagine in that lineup and in that ballpark, he’ll have a decent season in left.

So far in the spring, a few outfield bats have made some noise — but again, it’s spring training, so who knows. Lorenzo Cain is leading all of MLB in spring training with his .478 batting average. Chris Young, Travis Snider and Ryan Raburn also have had huge springs as well.

Will that translate to success in the regular season? If you look at the overall leaders from 2011 spring training, many of the top bats did have decent seasons.

So with that, I’ll say good luck to all of you as you prepare for the draft. Don’t steal any of my guys and if you’re looking for an inside scoop, I’ve hacked into Parker’s computer, stolen his spreadsheets and I’m selling them for $5. If you call now, I’ll throw in a free Jason Bay bobblehead.