Last year, this method correctly predicted three of four division winners, and it was perfect in the American League — too bad I can’t use this for my NCAA brackets.
So it’s time to apply the same method in JimmyJam League Baseball in 2012.
I've kept the formula close to what it was last season and created my 2012 JLB Previews around them.
I've also included my own opinions on the subject because I have a pair of divisions AL East and NL East fairing differently than what the "Jammermetric Scale" predicts.
American League Preview | National League Preview
Just as a reminder, the “Jammermetric Scale,” though nicely named after myself, has no bearing on where I think the teams will finish. I have my own opinions on that. The J-Scale compares you against your division rivals in all categories, and if you are first in a category, you get three points; if you’re second, you get two, if you’re third, you get one (Last year, third place was zero, but I’m making it even throughout). Add up all the points, and the team with the highest points, is predicted to win.
I used everyone’s optimal starting lineup offensively, and I looked at everyone’s top six starting pitchers and top four relievers. (Last year it was top seven, but several teams only have six starters, or six legit starters, so I lowered it by one.)
I also added a postseason prediction process applying the same J-Scale. Based on the votes, I filled out the bracket and then I placed you up against your opponent, one-on-one, matching up your numbers and came up with a final score. So, those scores below are not my guesses. They're how the projections work out.
So without further delay, here they are:
National League East
1. JimmyJam Slammers...........49 points (10 first place)
2. You’re Freaking Out............47 points (6 first place)
3. Vandelay Industries.............44 points (9 first place)
National League West
1. Chief Otto Parts.................59 points (14 first place)
2. The Duchess......................42 points (4 first place)
3. Team Suck........................40 points (5 first place)
American League East
1. N.J. Bombers.....................51 points (8 first place)
2. Sex Panthers......................48 points (10 first place)
3. Bad News Bears.................41 points (6 first place)
American League West
1. Gameday Gamblers..............55 points (14 first place)
2. Big League Choo.................44 points (4 first place)
3. Jerkin’ My Kirkjian..............39 points (5 first place)
Wild-Card Round
Slammers over Outs, 12-11-1
Otto Parts, bye
Panthers over Bombers, 11-10-3
Gamblers, bye
League Conference Series
Slammers over Otto Parts, 13-10-1
Gamblers over Panthers, 15-8-1
2012 World Series
Gamblers over Slammers, 12-9-3
Major League Baseball Preview
Last year, I had the Yankees and Phillies winning divisions and then rolling through the playoffs to a World Series matchup.
Well, I was wrong on the latter part, and that was upsetting for many of us in the JLB, since we’re filled with Yankees and Phillies fans. This year we add a fifth Yankees fan in Justin Brown — his fantasy baseball fee was paid by a N.Y. Yankee check — and Craig comes in as a Phillies fan. That means, if my information is correct, we have six Phillies fans, five Yankees fans and Parker (Reds fan).
You’ll all be happy to see I have you in the playoffs in my personal predictions, but only two of us are getting division titles — Phillies and Reds.
Sorry Yankees. The Rays are for real.
Even worse, I’m going to have Yankees fans going nuts about this one-game playoff because I have the Angels beating them in it. How? Just a hunch in late March, because honestly, how can anyone predict who will win a one-game playoff six months before it will happen?
Still, the facts of my predictions are, I think the Phillies will be just fine and squeak out the NL East. I think the Giants are going to be the top team in the National League with an offense that will shock many. I also think the Rangers will take down the Angels for that AL West title and I think a third straight trip to the World Series is coming.
I also would like to say, I have a darkhorse candidate for the Wild Card in the NL West, but I just can’t predict them to do it. I’m not going crazy like I did last year, predicting the Cubs to win the NL Central. I do like the Dodgers to win some games, potentially 87-89 games and I think that will be enough to scare the Diamondbacks for that second slot in the NL West.
Back in January, I thought maybe the Rockies would be in contention for that spot, too, but I think they’re going to fall a bit short with 84, 85 wins. No matter what, that NL West is going to be extremely close.
Here are my predictions.
American League East
1. Rays
2. Yankees (Wild Card)
3. Blue Jays
4. Red Sox
5. Orioles
American League Central
1. Tigers
2. Royals
3. White Sox
4. Indians
5. Twins
American League West
1. Rangers
2. Angels (Wild Card)
3. Mariners
4. Athletics
National League East
1. Phillies
2. Nationals (Wild Card)
3. Marlins
4. Braves
5. Mets
National League Central
1. Reds
2. Cardinals
3. Pirates
4. Brewers
5. Cubs
6. Astros
National League West
1. Giants
2. Diamondbacks (Wild Card)
3. Dodgers (Darkhorse to edge D-Backs)
4. Rockies
5. Padres
Wild Card Round
Diamondbacks over Nationals
Angels over Yankees
Divisional Round
Tigers over Angels
Rangers over Rays
Phillies over Reds
Giants over Diamondbacks
Conference Finals
Rangers over Tigers
Giants over Phillies
World Series
Rangers over Giants
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