American League East
It’s almost like this really is the American League East.
You have the N.J. Bombers, who win and never shut up. Just check how many Tweets he sent out in the last hour and you’ll understand what I mean by that. Does that sound like the Yankees to you? They win and never shut up.
You have the Sex Panthers. They win even though we’re not quite sure how, but nonetheless, the team manager is from Hazleton, Pa., so we don’t question it. Sound like the Rays to you? Joe Maddon is from Hazleton, Pa., and we’re not quite sure how he continues to lead his team to the playoffs, even against all odds.
And then, you have the Bad News Bears. They continue to field a team, but the moves are sometimes questionable. There’s always this false sense of future potential, and it hasn’t panned out. He’s the punch-line of fantasy baseball jokes. Sound like the Baltimore Orioles to you? What kind of move was it to send Guthrie to Colorado for Hammel? Why is Wilson Betemit the DH? Why, why, why did they not take care of Zach Britton before it got too late? There’s all these future young stars, yet none of them seem to develop. What is up with the Orioles?
The order in which I have listed these three teams is how the Jammermetric Scale predicted their finish; however, I have a different order.
Just like I think the Rays are going to with the AL East this season, I think the Sex Panthers will mimic that and take this one. (Third Base Hoagies for all!)
The Bombers will be a close second and in contention for the playoffs, just like the Yankees; and the Bad News Bears, well, we’ll start to feel bad for them soon. Just kidding. I actually like the Bad News Bears to not sit 56 games out of first place this season.
1. N.J. Bombers
2011 Record/Finish: 223-187-70/American League East Champion
Owner’s All-Time Record: 895-792-305 (.526)
I talked about the speed of the Bombers before the draft and I will continue to talk about it.
In the draft, he chose two potential 20-steal players in left fielder Jose Tabata and right fielder Lorenzo Cain (he’s actually going to play CF, but he’s listed as RF). Those position labels allow the Bombers to send out six base-stealing threats on a daily basis.
Pretty much, if you’re playing the Bombers, forget about trying to beat him in the steals category. I’d love to keep track of this stat all year because I swear I can see him winning this category every week. (We should have side bets on that alone.)
The Bombers have some power coming from Evan Longoria and Jay Bruce, as well as Paul Goldschmidt, and if Goldschmidt falters, maybe a comeback season by Justin Morneau could be a huge lift for the Bombers.
The bat I like the most though is Starling Marte. It may be a bit before he comes up for the Pirates, and maybe, with McCutchen signing the huge deal in the offseason, Marte become trade bait for what the Pirates need — starting pitching. So come July, I imagine you’ll get to see Marte making fantasy noise for the Bombers, whether it's with the Pirates or another club. And with the Bombers loaded with center fielders, too, perhaps Marte becomes trade bait for him, as well.
And if he does, it may be for starting pitching because for the Bombers, there’s a fine line here between success and a complete mess.
Jered Weaver is a star, no doubt. Clay Buchholz and Anibal Sanchez were targets of mine in the draft, so naturally, I like them, but there are still some questions with those two pitchers. I’ve expressed my concerns for Jaime Garcia in the draft preview, so I think the Bombers will be looking for more pitching by June/July, because outside of those four pitchers, there’s Trevor Bauer, Drew Pomeranz, Manuel Banuelos, Randall Delgado and Nestor Molina.
For a few of those guys, some of you just asked, “Who is that?” Bauer an Pomeranz are going to be good pitchers, and they can help out this season, but there’s going to be innings limits for both of them. The other three will be lucky to toss 50 innings this year.
This group is a pitching staff to watch out for in 2013 and 2014, which may be the Bombers’ plan, but for 2012, he’s going to be scraping the waiver wire for some help.
2. Sex Panthers
2011 Record/Finish: 220-187-73/Second in American League East
Owner’s All-Time Record: 863-807-322 (.514)
For a team that kept just Antonio Bastardo in the bullpen, she sure did a good job grabbing relievers in the draft. Kyle Farnsworth and Joe Nathan are closing for two teams that I personally have projected to win their divisions. Add in top-notch set-up relievers in Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson, and Bastardo will be on the bench more often than he is in the starting lineup.
As for starters, I personally like what the Panthers are going to get from C.J. Wilson, Erwin Santana and Trevor Cahill. I think 14-17 wins are in the books for all three of them, but the more important thing is, they’re going to provide quality starts for the Panthers.
That’s key because the Panthers do not have that top-of-the-rotation starter. Yes, I know Josh Johnson is on the team, but we have to wait and see what he can provide after missing the 2011 season.
If he can come back and be the Josh Johnson we all came to know in 2009 and 2010, the Panthers are going to make a big run in the division until about late July and early August when Johnson gets shut down. He’s not going to pitch more than 180 innings, if everything I read is right, and that means he’s going to hit a wall around then.
Still, I think there will still be some quality starts leading this team, as she has Yankee starters Andy Pettitte, Freddy Garcia and Phil Hughes.
I’d take three Yankees starters not named Pineda any day.
Speaking of Pineda, let’s talk Jesus Montero. He’ll never be a catcher, as the Panthers once planned, but she can sit happy knowing she has a quality DH to stick in the UTIL spot for the foreseeable future.
He’s in a strong lineup that includes Albert Pujols, Martin Prado, Derek Jeter, Delmon Young, Shane Victorino and Nick Markakis.
Last season, injuries plagued the Panthers. Some of those aforementioned players went down and she had nothing to replace them with.
This year — and this is the reason why I have the Panthers making up the 1.5 games that separated her from the division-winning Bombers last season — the Panthers have quality backups in Omar Infante (2B), Marco Scutaro (2B, SS), Angel Pagan (CF), Gaby Sanchez (1B) and Placido Polanco (3B).
Let’s break this down. Infante could actually overtake Freddy Sanchez for second base starts because he’s a .290 bat who will get about 170 hits. Scutaro, when he becomes second base eligible in mid-April, could also vie for that second base spot.
Polanco is healthy and I personally see him lining up in one of the UTIL spots and maybe even taking over at third base if Prado falters. Polanco is healthy again, and we can see this in spring training.
Parker sits there and shouts, “Spring Training means nothing,” and for the most part, that’s true. But you can learn some things. Last year, Polanco was clearly bothered by his back and it hampered him throughout the season. He batted just .152 in spring training last season en route to one of his worst regular seasons. This year, he’s batting .448 in the spring, which tells me that he’s healthy and he’s got his swing back. He’s a career .301 hitter and we’re just one year removed from his .298 hitting campaign in 2010. I expect to see that back again in 2012.
Gaby Sanchez also could turn into a quality late-round pickup for the Panthers, too.
That said, there's plenty of offense here and if the pitching holds up, this division could go to the Panthers.
3. Bad News Bears
2011 Record/Finish: 166-242-72/Third in American League East
Owner’s All-Time Record: 677-983-335 (.423)
The Bad News Bears have an offense that could as good as it is tough to figure out. With 23 bats on the team and only 10 starting spots in the JLB, the Bears have some decisions to make.
Still, when you sift through the 23 bats, you find this: (C) Russell Martin, (1B) Carolos Pena, (2B) Dustin Pedroia, (3B) Aramis Ramirez, (SS) Stephen Drew, (LF) Desmond Jennings, (CF) Melky Cabrera and (RF) Justin Upton.
That’s a very nice lineup, I must admit. Drew is a bit of a question mark, and Jennings could still be a half a season away from taking off, but the rest of those guys bring valuable stats to the Bears.
On the bench, there are key bats in Pedro Alvarez, Mark Trumbo, Nick Swisher, Ryan Raburn, Josh Reddick and Ben Revere. All of those guys have the potential to rise up and make the daily lineup. Revere is a great base-stealing threat and he's my prediction to take over a UTIL spot often.
If the Bears can get that, he may be able to narrow the 56-game gap between himself and Bombers in 2011.
A division title is still a bit out of the question, but I think that could change if the Bears sift through this 23 man offense and cut it down to 19 bats, and add some help to a pitching staff that is a good group, just not very deep.
One injury and the Bears are in trouble. Two injuries and we’re all digging deep to find some more Bears jokes.
Adding depth at starting pitching will be key. CC Sabathia, Rick Porcello and Hiroki Kuroda will be the main three, and who knows, maybe Wandy Rodriguez and Ryan Dempster could provide some good starts, too.
Without any help, though, these guys will have to do what I said Team Suck will do: win the efficient categories, (ERA, WHIP, walks), but sacrifice the categories that other teams will be able to pile up stats (strikeouts, wins, quality starts).
But the Bears have the best bullpen for dominating the saves category, with Mariano Rivera, Brian Wilson, Matt Capps, Matt Thornton and Jonathan Broxton. I just listed five guys who will pile up 20 or more saves this season, with Rivera and Wilson likely hitting 40, and they will dominate the JLB.
Don’t be surprised if with the dominant closers and efficient starts, the Bears can win seven out of 12 pitching categories often. Add that to an offense that may be the best that the Bears have fielded in franchise history, and we could be in for a bit of a surprise this season.
The craziest thing about this surprise is that Alex would even read this and ask, “Really? Wow. I’m surprised.”
American League West
Last year, I just handed the American League West to the Gamblers, and the numbers say he should win like he did last year, besting the second-place team by 31.5 games.
But, not so fast.
Here comes a Jerk. A real big Jerk, and Parker, he’s got Yu in his sights.
My official prediction lines up with the Jammermetric Scale in that I believe the Gamblers will win the American League West, but second place is where I differ. I expect the Jerks to be right there, perhaps within 10 games — which sounds like a lot, but it could be enough to earn him the wild card.
The Jammermetric numbers have Big League Choo finishing second here, but I just can’t see that happening with the starting pitching woes I think he’s going to deal with all season. I'll be the first to step up and say I'm wrong if it all comes together, but I'm just not buying it right now.
No matter what, I think this is going to be fun division to watch because there’s the pair of Davids vs. Goliath going on here, and then the pair of Davids will be battling for the wild card.
Boy, wouldn’t it be something if a David wins this division?
1. Gameday Gamblers
2011 Record/Finish: 246-177-57/American League West Champion, American League pennant
Owner’s All-Time Record: 938-190-281 (.541)
This is it. This is the year for the Gamblers. Win or go back to the spreadsheets.
OK, well, that’s every year around this organization. Winning is all the Gamblers know. (That, and a few iMovie tricks.)
And adding two right fielders who could each bounce back from their tough 2011 seasons will just make them better. Drafting a potential NL Rookie of the Year in catcher Devin Mesoraco helps, too.
But, center field is still a bit of a question mark and I’m not completely sold on shortstop.
That doesn’t mean there’s a problem with this offense, though. Joe Mauer, Joey Votto, Jose Bautista, Ichiro Suzuki, Brandon Phillips and Alex Rodriguez will rack up big numbers.
Notice I didn’t include Ryan Braun. Don’t worry, Parker, I think he’s going to put up some good numbers, too, but I certainly don’t expect anything close to the MVP performance he had last year, and it has nothing to do with his PED issue. I think losing Prince Fielder is going to affect him greatly in the lineup. Before, everyone feared Prince and Braun benefited. Now, when teams go up against the Brewers, they’re circling Braun’s name and targeting him in the lineup, not Fielder.
Mat Gamel is Fielder’s replacement, and Parker nabbed him in the draft, too, and after this season, he will have just 1B eligibility, so he’s certainly out of the mix for future seasons with the Gamblers. Consider this a one-year deal, and I don’t see how he makes it into the lineup daily. Alex Rios could easily take over Drew Stubbs in center, but I doubt it. The Gamblers could be looking for a center fielder come July.
No matter what concerns I have with those couple positions, the lineup still is strong enough to win.
Factor in the strong starting pitching staff that includes NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, and this team is on the scale of ridiculous. Kershaw will be in the mix for the Cy Young again, along with Madison Bumgarner, who I think will rise up to be the Giants' No. 2, and perhaps put up better numbers than their No. 1 starter, Tim Lincecum.
James Shields, Daniel Hudson, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg will provide great starts, too, but Stasburg will be limited in innings and starts.
Roy Oswalt could swoop in and add quality starts if he signs with a team, but the rest of the staff is up in the air in my mind. Danny Hultzen has late-season call-up value, but he’s a pitcher for the future, not 2012.
Oh, and Michael Pineda is on the DL to start the season. … I love when I right.
2. Big League Choo
2011 Record/Finish: 201-195-84/Second in American League West
Owner’s All-Time Record: 201-195-84 (.506)
Someone called in to MLB Network Radio on Wednesday and predicted that Doug Fister would win the AL Cy Young.
So I have to ask: Steve, I need to know your whereabouts from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. on Wednesday, March 28.
Whoever that was who called in is certainly living in a dream world. Fister has put together some great performances, but a Cy Young award in 2012 is absolutely crazy. I'm talking Rick Santorum crazy. No way. It's not happening. Fister is a No. 3 starter at best. The same applies to several other starters in the Big League Choo’s lineup.
I'll admit, he does have the pitching staff that could dominate the JLB, but everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, has to go right.
Fister has to be a solid No. 2 to complement Justin Verlander in Detroit.
Cory Luebke has to step up and be the No. 1 San Diego has been looking for since Jake Peavy left.
Ubaldo Jimenez and Jair Jurrjens have to re-discover their first-half magical performances from 2010 and 2011, respectively.
Chris Carpenter has to get healthy and be the starter he was last year.
Mark Buehrle and Chad Billingsley each have to step up and put together 14-win seasons for a pair of teams that I think will be in contention for playoff spots.
That’s seven things that need to happen for Choo to take the next step forward, and I’m just not sure he’ll get that. I don’t even think he’ll get three of those seven things to happen.
That means, it’s about the future of this club with guys like Alexi Ogando, Henderson Alvarez, Jarrod Parker and Tyler Skaggs.
That future isn’t 2012.
Offensively, the Choo is in much better shape. Mike Napoli, Adrian Gonzalez, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton (when healthy) and Curtis Granderson area good core group, and with Ike Davis developing and Mike Trout on the way, there can be some good offensive days ahead for the Choo.
But it won’t be enough to overcome the pitching in 2012.
Jerkin’ My Kurkjian
2011 Record/Finish: 149-250-81/Third in American League West
Owner’s All-Time Record: New owner
Ah, Jerka, Jerka, Jerka. Johnny (Matt) DAMON.
Ok, now that I got that Team American Tom Foolery out of the way, it’s time to talk about the Jerk.
The Jerk who took Yu Darvish with the No. 2 overall pick.
I'm talking about the Rangers' Japanese savior, who struck out 11 minor leaguers and then came out and struck out 11 Colorado Rockies a few days later.
What can we expect from Darvish? Who knows? I’ve had my doubts, and I will always have doubts about Japanese pitchers who walk too many batters, but if Darvish can live up to his mega-million dollar contract, the Jerks are in great shape.
If he puts up No. 1 starter statistics, watch out Gamblers.
Darvish will be lining up with Max Scherzer, Josh Beckett, Justin Masterson and Tommy Hanson, who are all decent starters to have. I like all of them to reach 13-16 wins this season. I do consider Hanson the weak link there because of injuries, but if he holds up, I guarantee he leads this Jerk team into contention.
An under-the-radar move can be Tommy Milone, who I personally wanted to pick up, but I was waiting for the Pirates to make a DL decision on A.J. Burnett.
The Jerks didn’t let that happen, snagging him with the first waiver claim period of 2012. Add him with Brad Peacock, who was one of the Nationals’ prized minor league arms who came over in the Gio Gonzalez deal, and the Jerks have a good group of future arms, too.
Offensively, this team is built for 2013 and 2014, but that doesn’t mean he’s not competing in 2012.
First, let’s talk about the bats who will make impacts right now. Miguel Montero, Mark Teixeira, Dan Uggla, Kevin Youkilis, Alex Gordon, Adam Lind, David Ortiz and Yonder Alonso: All of those guys are going to hit. High averages, high RBI totals, and doubles and homers galore. I like it.
Dexter Fowler will probably split time with Austin Jackson in center field for this team, and if Jackson can ever cut down on strikeouts, he’ll be the everyday man in center field, providing runs, singles and steals.
I like Andre Ethier to bounce back and be the guy who had the huge hitting streak to start 2011. So, that’s what we’re looking at in 2012.
Now, let’s talk about what will certainly be key bats in 2013 and 2014, and may even rise up in 2012.
First, Zack Cosart. I’ve heard some talk about NL Rookie of the Year awards for Cosart and that’s exactly what the Jerk needs to hear. His shortstop position relies on Cosart putting up those numbers this year. No matter what, he’s the starting shortstop for the Jerk for many years to come.
And, then there’s Nolan Arenado. This kid can hit. I listen to Jim Bowden from MLB Network Radio, the former Reds GM who knows a talented bat when he sees one, and he’s raving about Arenado.
He could be called up very soon and make an impact, but no matter what he’s there in 2013.
So if the Jerk can steal the wild card from the AL East, where I think it will go, he’ll make a huge statement to the Gamblers in 2012: “Watch out in 2013.”
It’s almost like this really is the American League East.
You have the N.J. Bombers, who win and never shut up. Just check how many Tweets he sent out in the last hour and you’ll understand what I mean by that. Does that sound like the Yankees to you? They win and never shut up.
You have the Sex Panthers. They win even though we’re not quite sure how, but nonetheless, the team manager is from Hazleton, Pa., so we don’t question it. Sound like the Rays to you? Joe Maddon is from Hazleton, Pa., and we’re not quite sure how he continues to lead his team to the playoffs, even against all odds.
And then, you have the Bad News Bears. They continue to field a team, but the moves are sometimes questionable. There’s always this false sense of future potential, and it hasn’t panned out. He’s the punch-line of fantasy baseball jokes. Sound like the Baltimore Orioles to you? What kind of move was it to send Guthrie to Colorado for Hammel? Why is Wilson Betemit the DH? Why, why, why did they not take care of Zach Britton before it got too late? There’s all these future young stars, yet none of them seem to develop. What is up with the Orioles?
The order in which I have listed these three teams is how the Jammermetric Scale predicted their finish; however, I have a different order.
Just like I think the Rays are going to with the AL East this season, I think the Sex Panthers will mimic that and take this one. (Third Base Hoagies for all!)
The Bombers will be a close second and in contention for the playoffs, just like the Yankees; and the Bad News Bears, well, we’ll start to feel bad for them soon. Just kidding. I actually like the Bad News Bears to not sit 56 games out of first place this season.
1. N.J. Bombers
2011 Record/Finish: 223-187-70/American League East Champion
Owner’s All-Time Record: 895-792-305 (.526)
I talked about the speed of the Bombers before the draft and I will continue to talk about it.
In the draft, he chose two potential 20-steal players in left fielder Jose Tabata and right fielder Lorenzo Cain (he’s actually going to play CF, but he’s listed as RF). Those position labels allow the Bombers to send out six base-stealing threats on a daily basis.
Pretty much, if you’re playing the Bombers, forget about trying to beat him in the steals category. I’d love to keep track of this stat all year because I swear I can see him winning this category every week. (We should have side bets on that alone.)
The Bombers have some power coming from Evan Longoria and Jay Bruce, as well as Paul Goldschmidt, and if Goldschmidt falters, maybe a comeback season by Justin Morneau could be a huge lift for the Bombers.
The bat I like the most though is Starling Marte. It may be a bit before he comes up for the Pirates, and maybe, with McCutchen signing the huge deal in the offseason, Marte become trade bait for what the Pirates need — starting pitching. So come July, I imagine you’ll get to see Marte making fantasy noise for the Bombers, whether it's with the Pirates or another club. And with the Bombers loaded with center fielders, too, perhaps Marte becomes trade bait for him, as well.
And if he does, it may be for starting pitching because for the Bombers, there’s a fine line here between success and a complete mess.
Jered Weaver is a star, no doubt. Clay Buchholz and Anibal Sanchez were targets of mine in the draft, so naturally, I like them, but there are still some questions with those two pitchers. I’ve expressed my concerns for Jaime Garcia in the draft preview, so I think the Bombers will be looking for more pitching by June/July, because outside of those four pitchers, there’s Trevor Bauer, Drew Pomeranz, Manuel Banuelos, Randall Delgado and Nestor Molina.
For a few of those guys, some of you just asked, “Who is that?” Bauer an Pomeranz are going to be good pitchers, and they can help out this season, but there’s going to be innings limits for both of them. The other three will be lucky to toss 50 innings this year.
This group is a pitching staff to watch out for in 2013 and 2014, which may be the Bombers’ plan, but for 2012, he’s going to be scraping the waiver wire for some help.
2. Sex Panthers
2011 Record/Finish: 220-187-73/Second in American League East
Owner’s All-Time Record: 863-807-322 (.514)
For a team that kept just Antonio Bastardo in the bullpen, she sure did a good job grabbing relievers in the draft. Kyle Farnsworth and Joe Nathan are closing for two teams that I personally have projected to win their divisions. Add in top-notch set-up relievers in Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson, and Bastardo will be on the bench more often than he is in the starting lineup.
As for starters, I personally like what the Panthers are going to get from C.J. Wilson, Erwin Santana and Trevor Cahill. I think 14-17 wins are in the books for all three of them, but the more important thing is, they’re going to provide quality starts for the Panthers.
That’s key because the Panthers do not have that top-of-the-rotation starter. Yes, I know Josh Johnson is on the team, but we have to wait and see what he can provide after missing the 2011 season.
If he can come back and be the Josh Johnson we all came to know in 2009 and 2010, the Panthers are going to make a big run in the division until about late July and early August when Johnson gets shut down. He’s not going to pitch more than 180 innings, if everything I read is right, and that means he’s going to hit a wall around then.
Still, I think there will still be some quality starts leading this team, as she has Yankee starters Andy Pettitte, Freddy Garcia and Phil Hughes.
I’d take three Yankees starters not named Pineda any day.
Speaking of Pineda, let’s talk Jesus Montero. He’ll never be a catcher, as the Panthers once planned, but she can sit happy knowing she has a quality DH to stick in the UTIL spot for the foreseeable future.
He’s in a strong lineup that includes Albert Pujols, Martin Prado, Derek Jeter, Delmon Young, Shane Victorino and Nick Markakis.
Last season, injuries plagued the Panthers. Some of those aforementioned players went down and she had nothing to replace them with.
This year — and this is the reason why I have the Panthers making up the 1.5 games that separated her from the division-winning Bombers last season — the Panthers have quality backups in Omar Infante (2B), Marco Scutaro (2B, SS), Angel Pagan (CF), Gaby Sanchez (1B) and Placido Polanco (3B).
Let’s break this down. Infante could actually overtake Freddy Sanchez for second base starts because he’s a .290 bat who will get about 170 hits. Scutaro, when he becomes second base eligible in mid-April, could also vie for that second base spot.
Polanco is healthy and I personally see him lining up in one of the UTIL spots and maybe even taking over at third base if Prado falters. Polanco is healthy again, and we can see this in spring training.
Parker sits there and shouts, “Spring Training means nothing,” and for the most part, that’s true. But you can learn some things. Last year, Polanco was clearly bothered by his back and it hampered him throughout the season. He batted just .152 in spring training last season en route to one of his worst regular seasons. This year, he’s batting .448 in the spring, which tells me that he’s healthy and he’s got his swing back. He’s a career .301 hitter and we’re just one year removed from his .298 hitting campaign in 2010. I expect to see that back again in 2012.
Gaby Sanchez also could turn into a quality late-round pickup for the Panthers, too.
That said, there's plenty of offense here and if the pitching holds up, this division could go to the Panthers.
3. Bad News Bears
2011 Record/Finish: 166-242-72/Third in American League East
Owner’s All-Time Record: 677-983-335 (.423)
The Bad News Bears have an offense that could as good as it is tough to figure out. With 23 bats on the team and only 10 starting spots in the JLB, the Bears have some decisions to make.
Still, when you sift through the 23 bats, you find this: (C) Russell Martin, (1B) Carolos Pena, (2B) Dustin Pedroia, (3B) Aramis Ramirez, (SS) Stephen Drew, (LF) Desmond Jennings, (CF) Melky Cabrera and (RF) Justin Upton.
That’s a very nice lineup, I must admit. Drew is a bit of a question mark, and Jennings could still be a half a season away from taking off, but the rest of those guys bring valuable stats to the Bears.
On the bench, there are key bats in Pedro Alvarez, Mark Trumbo, Nick Swisher, Ryan Raburn, Josh Reddick and Ben Revere. All of those guys have the potential to rise up and make the daily lineup. Revere is a great base-stealing threat and he's my prediction to take over a UTIL spot often.
If the Bears can get that, he may be able to narrow the 56-game gap between himself and Bombers in 2011.
A division title is still a bit out of the question, but I think that could change if the Bears sift through this 23 man offense and cut it down to 19 bats, and add some help to a pitching staff that is a good group, just not very deep.
One injury and the Bears are in trouble. Two injuries and we’re all digging deep to find some more Bears jokes.
Adding depth at starting pitching will be key. CC Sabathia, Rick Porcello and Hiroki Kuroda will be the main three, and who knows, maybe Wandy Rodriguez and Ryan Dempster could provide some good starts, too.
Without any help, though, these guys will have to do what I said Team Suck will do: win the efficient categories, (ERA, WHIP, walks), but sacrifice the categories that other teams will be able to pile up stats (strikeouts, wins, quality starts).
But the Bears have the best bullpen for dominating the saves category, with Mariano Rivera, Brian Wilson, Matt Capps, Matt Thornton and Jonathan Broxton. I just listed five guys who will pile up 20 or more saves this season, with Rivera and Wilson likely hitting 40, and they will dominate the JLB.
Don’t be surprised if with the dominant closers and efficient starts, the Bears can win seven out of 12 pitching categories often. Add that to an offense that may be the best that the Bears have fielded in franchise history, and we could be in for a bit of a surprise this season.
The craziest thing about this surprise is that Alex would even read this and ask, “Really? Wow. I’m surprised.”
American League West
Last year, I just handed the American League West to the Gamblers, and the numbers say he should win like he did last year, besting the second-place team by 31.5 games.
But, not so fast.
Here comes a Jerk. A real big Jerk, and Parker, he’s got Yu in his sights.
My official prediction lines up with the Jammermetric Scale in that I believe the Gamblers will win the American League West, but second place is where I differ. I expect the Jerks to be right there, perhaps within 10 games — which sounds like a lot, but it could be enough to earn him the wild card.
The Jammermetric numbers have Big League Choo finishing second here, but I just can’t see that happening with the starting pitching woes I think he’s going to deal with all season. I'll be the first to step up and say I'm wrong if it all comes together, but I'm just not buying it right now.
No matter what, I think this is going to be fun division to watch because there’s the pair of Davids vs. Goliath going on here, and then the pair of Davids will be battling for the wild card.
Boy, wouldn’t it be something if a David wins this division?
1. Gameday Gamblers
2011 Record/Finish: 246-177-57/American League West Champion, American League pennant
Owner’s All-Time Record: 938-190-281 (.541)
This is it. This is the year for the Gamblers. Win or go back to the spreadsheets.
OK, well, that’s every year around this organization. Winning is all the Gamblers know. (That, and a few iMovie tricks.)
And adding two right fielders who could each bounce back from their tough 2011 seasons will just make them better. Drafting a potential NL Rookie of the Year in catcher Devin Mesoraco helps, too.
But, center field is still a bit of a question mark and I’m not completely sold on shortstop.
That doesn’t mean there’s a problem with this offense, though. Joe Mauer, Joey Votto, Jose Bautista, Ichiro Suzuki, Brandon Phillips and Alex Rodriguez will rack up big numbers.
Notice I didn’t include Ryan Braun. Don’t worry, Parker, I think he’s going to put up some good numbers, too, but I certainly don’t expect anything close to the MVP performance he had last year, and it has nothing to do with his PED issue. I think losing Prince Fielder is going to affect him greatly in the lineup. Before, everyone feared Prince and Braun benefited. Now, when teams go up against the Brewers, they’re circling Braun’s name and targeting him in the lineup, not Fielder.
Mat Gamel is Fielder’s replacement, and Parker nabbed him in the draft, too, and after this season, he will have just 1B eligibility, so he’s certainly out of the mix for future seasons with the Gamblers. Consider this a one-year deal, and I don’t see how he makes it into the lineup daily. Alex Rios could easily take over Drew Stubbs in center, but I doubt it. The Gamblers could be looking for a center fielder come July.
No matter what concerns I have with those couple positions, the lineup still is strong enough to win.
Factor in the strong starting pitching staff that includes NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, and this team is on the scale of ridiculous. Kershaw will be in the mix for the Cy Young again, along with Madison Bumgarner, who I think will rise up to be the Giants' No. 2, and perhaps put up better numbers than their No. 1 starter, Tim Lincecum.
James Shields, Daniel Hudson, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg will provide great starts, too, but Stasburg will be limited in innings and starts.
Roy Oswalt could swoop in and add quality starts if he signs with a team, but the rest of the staff is up in the air in my mind. Danny Hultzen has late-season call-up value, but he’s a pitcher for the future, not 2012.
Oh, and Michael Pineda is on the DL to start the season. … I love when I right.
2. Big League Choo
2011 Record/Finish: 201-195-84/Second in American League West
Owner’s All-Time Record: 201-195-84 (.506)
Someone called in to MLB Network Radio on Wednesday and predicted that Doug Fister would win the AL Cy Young.
So I have to ask: Steve, I need to know your whereabouts from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. on Wednesday, March 28.
Whoever that was who called in is certainly living in a dream world. Fister has put together some great performances, but a Cy Young award in 2012 is absolutely crazy. I'm talking Rick Santorum crazy. No way. It's not happening. Fister is a No. 3 starter at best. The same applies to several other starters in the Big League Choo’s lineup.
I'll admit, he does have the pitching staff that could dominate the JLB, but everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, has to go right.
Fister has to be a solid No. 2 to complement Justin Verlander in Detroit.
Cory Luebke has to step up and be the No. 1 San Diego has been looking for since Jake Peavy left.
Ubaldo Jimenez and Jair Jurrjens have to re-discover their first-half magical performances from 2010 and 2011, respectively.
Chris Carpenter has to get healthy and be the starter he was last year.
Mark Buehrle and Chad Billingsley each have to step up and put together 14-win seasons for a pair of teams that I think will be in contention for playoff spots.
That’s seven things that need to happen for Choo to take the next step forward, and I’m just not sure he’ll get that. I don’t even think he’ll get three of those seven things to happen.
That means, it’s about the future of this club with guys like Alexi Ogando, Henderson Alvarez, Jarrod Parker and Tyler Skaggs.
That future isn’t 2012.
Offensively, the Choo is in much better shape. Mike Napoli, Adrian Gonzalez, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton (when healthy) and Curtis Granderson area good core group, and with Ike Davis developing and Mike Trout on the way, there can be some good offensive days ahead for the Choo.
But it won’t be enough to overcome the pitching in 2012.
Jerkin’ My Kurkjian
2011 Record/Finish: 149-250-81/Third in American League West
Owner’s All-Time Record: New owner
Ah, Jerka, Jerka, Jerka. Johnny (Matt) DAMON.
Ok, now that I got that Team American Tom Foolery out of the way, it’s time to talk about the Jerk.
The Jerk who took Yu Darvish with the No. 2 overall pick.
I'm talking about the Rangers' Japanese savior, who struck out 11 minor leaguers and then came out and struck out 11 Colorado Rockies a few days later.
What can we expect from Darvish? Who knows? I’ve had my doubts, and I will always have doubts about Japanese pitchers who walk too many batters, but if Darvish can live up to his mega-million dollar contract, the Jerks are in great shape.
If he puts up No. 1 starter statistics, watch out Gamblers.
Darvish will be lining up with Max Scherzer, Josh Beckett, Justin Masterson and Tommy Hanson, who are all decent starters to have. I like all of them to reach 13-16 wins this season. I do consider Hanson the weak link there because of injuries, but if he holds up, I guarantee he leads this Jerk team into contention.
An under-the-radar move can be Tommy Milone, who I personally wanted to pick up, but I was waiting for the Pirates to make a DL decision on A.J. Burnett.
The Jerks didn’t let that happen, snagging him with the first waiver claim period of 2012. Add him with Brad Peacock, who was one of the Nationals’ prized minor league arms who came over in the Gio Gonzalez deal, and the Jerks have a good group of future arms, too.
Offensively, this team is built for 2013 and 2014, but that doesn’t mean he’s not competing in 2012.
First, let’s talk about the bats who will make impacts right now. Miguel Montero, Mark Teixeira, Dan Uggla, Kevin Youkilis, Alex Gordon, Adam Lind, David Ortiz and Yonder Alonso: All of those guys are going to hit. High averages, high RBI totals, and doubles and homers galore. I like it.
Dexter Fowler will probably split time with Austin Jackson in center field for this team, and if Jackson can ever cut down on strikeouts, he’ll be the everyday man in center field, providing runs, singles and steals.
I like Andre Ethier to bounce back and be the guy who had the huge hitting streak to start 2011. So, that’s what we’re looking at in 2012.
Now, let’s talk about what will certainly be key bats in 2013 and 2014, and may even rise up in 2012.
First, Zack Cosart. I’ve heard some talk about NL Rookie of the Year awards for Cosart and that’s exactly what the Jerk needs to hear. His shortstop position relies on Cosart putting up those numbers this year. No matter what, he’s the starting shortstop for the Jerk for many years to come.
And, then there’s Nolan Arenado. This kid can hit. I listen to Jim Bowden from MLB Network Radio, the former Reds GM who knows a talented bat when he sees one, and he’s raving about Arenado.
He could be called up very soon and make an impact, but no matter what he’s there in 2013.
So if the Jerk can steal the wild card from the AL East, where I think it will go, he’ll make a huge statement to the Gamblers in 2012: “Watch out in 2013.”
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