I really like this 2012 Philadelphia Phillies squad.
Is it ideal?
No, of course not, but I like this roster much more than the
one the Phils had to start 2011.
There are some key pieces to this team that were missing last year and I'm going to go over them throughout this piece. Stick with me throughout this whole thing, too, because I’m going to touch a few subjects and jump around.
It’s “Jargon” at its best.
First, let’s discuss why I didn’t particularly feel that
great on Opening Day, April 1, 2011.
Last season at this time, Joe Blanton was heading to the DL,
Chase Utley’s status was uncertain, Placido Polanco was dealing with back
issues, Raul Ibanez was too old to play left field and Domonic Brown was unable
to lock down the right field job before hurting his hand and landing on the DL
forcing Ben Francisco to take over. Oh, and the bench included Ross Gload, Pete
Orr and Michael Martinez.
Yes, the starting pitching staff, which included Roy Oswalt
at the time, was on the cover of Sports Illustrated and many were expecting great things despite all my listed concerns. Everyone was picking them
to win the World Series. I had them winning the division and playing the Braves in the divisional round and advancing through to the World Series because I thought all those concerns would work themselves out.
And during the regular season, it looked like I was right. Vance Worley came out of nowhere to help Roy
Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt post the best pitching staff
ERA (3.02) since 1989, and they won their division.
But then, the playoffs came around
and they just couldn’t cool off the charging Cardinals. The offense, which struggled to generate runs all season, looked
abysmal in that Game 5 and the rest was history.
The Phillies were all about the crooked number. Big innings fueled their 102 wins during the regular season, but when they needed to scratch across a run, they just couldn't get the base runners.
And when it came to pinch-hitters late in the game, forget about it. Gload came into that Game 5 against Chris Carpenter to pinch hit, and he, of course,
struck out. He hit .237 as a pinch-hitter and 5-for-36 (.147) with runners in
scoring position. The rest of the pinch-hitters weren’t much better, and that
really hurt the Phillies' offense.
They didn’t have that pinch-hitter to get on base or drive
in runs. In fact, many times it was better to not pinch hit when it came to
pitchers like Lee and Hamels batting.
Going back to that paragraph of 2011 gripes, Utley missed 42
games and then came in to have a decent season at second base. It wasn’t
All-Star worthy, but it was OK, batting .259 with 54 runs scored and 44 RBIs in 103 games. Polanco's average wasn't much better as his injury got worse and he posted an average of .277, his worst since 1999.
Ibanez batted just .245 in left field last season; however,
he did provide 84 RBIs. He had some clutch hits, hence the 84 RBIs, but he
ruined several other opportunities with his .245 average and .289 on-base
percentage.
And, as we all know, right field was a mess until the Phils
made the move for Hunter Pence.
So, fast forward to 2012.
Pence is back and holding down that once questionable right
field position. Shane Victorino is solid in center, and I think with the
Phillies playing a style of small ball that suits Victorino better, we will see good
numbers from him.
And in left, there is Juan Pierre who won a roster spot and
looks like he’ll be out there a lot because Manuel is a big fan of him. When
the Phils signed him I was immediately excited. This is the type of player they
needed all of last year. His average has been high .270s over the last two
seasons, but he’s a career .296 hitter. No, I’m not expecting a .296 season out
of Pierre, but .280/.285 isn’t out of the question. The biggest thing is, he
can get on base and generate runs, something his predecessor, Ibanez, did not
do. Ibanez did drive in runs, but he didn’t generate many. Pierre can get on
base, steal a bag or two and score a run, and we all know that with the
Phillies pitching staff, a run means a lot. If Halladay gets a run like that, Game 5 is much different and the Cards may not be bragging about a World Series right now.
Jimmy Rollins has been in that leadoff role for a while, but he may be better suited in the third spot. He has the speed to generate runs, but he also has the power to drive balls to the gap,
which is why I loved Manuel’s lineup Monday with Pierre leading off, Polanco
second and J-Roll third.
Polanco, who I mentioned before as having his worst
year since 1999, is healthy and swinging the bat like he used to. Batting .436
in spring tells me that he is back to normal and we should expect an average
closer to his career average of .301. Polanco, Rollins and Pence, who hit
fourth in Monday’s lineup, all have the power to drive in runs, and that’s why
I’m very satisfied with the top of the lineup as the Phils wait for Ryan Howard
to return.
Now that I’ve mentioned Howard, let’s address the two
positions that has everyone going bonkers.
Utley is out at second, again, and I imagine he’ll be out
till late May like he was last season. Until then, it’s the defensive-minded
Freddy Galvis, who will not do much offensively, but he’ll save some runs
defensively until Utley gets back. He’ll hit in the eight-hole behind Carlos
Ruiz, who had a great season batting .282 last season.
As for Howard, who drove in 116 runs, he will be missed and
cannot be replaced. But it’s not like he’s out for the season. He’s expected
back in May and I imagine it will take some time for him to get back to form, so for the first two months, the Phillies will have to work hard to win series.
That’s why it’s a good thing the Phillies have one of the
easiest schedules in April and May with 30 games against teams that had losing
seasons last year (Astros, 5 games; Padres, 7 games; Mets, 9 games; Cubs, 6
games; Pirates, 3 games). I did not include the Marlins and Nationals who did
have losing records in 2011 because I expect them to be much better in 2012.
So factoring in the lighter schedule, the strong pitching,
good defense and speedy offense, I am honest when I say I like what the
Phillies have heading into 2012.
Oh, and one last thing. I talked about how Ross Gload killed
them in the pinch-hitting department. This year, and especially when Howard
returns, the pinch-hitters will be Jim Thome, Ty Wigginton and John Mayberry.
They are contact hitters who can drive in runs. Just the threat that Jim Thome
creates walking to the plate stirs up the pitcher a bit. That opposing pitcher
knows that one little mistake is landing 400 feet away. Last year, Manuel did
not have a bench threat like that.
So there you have it. That is why I think the Phillies will
still win 92, 93 games and win the NL East. You can still disagree and say the
Marlins or Nationals will win more and that's perfectly fine.
But I think you cannot argue the overall makeup
of the 2012 team, especially in May when Howard and Utley return, is much
better than the 2011 team.
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