Houserville has to feel pretty good.
After two straight AFC North titles, the Ville has been selected to win a third, earning 21 points and five first-place votes in the (much-delayed) AFC North preseason poll.
Fear and Loathing, who hasn’t won a division title since 2008, was projected to finish second with 17 points and two first-place votes. The 2009 division winning World of Noise got 16 points and two first-place votes.
Now with the preseason poll and the historical facts out of the way, it’s time for me to ruin that good feeling for Houserville.
This division, just got extremely competitive.
I can make viable cases for all three teams winning the AFC North. I personally projected the Ville to win, but I have World of Noise second and I actually give him a decent outside chance at stealing a division title.
Fear can also contend, but he needs a few things to go right for that to happen.
For the Ville and the Noise, that’s not the case. Both have great No. 1 QBs and they both have No. 2 QBs who could be someone else’s No. 1. (Trade bait for the Toaster? Interested?)
Both have questions at RB, but I give the edge to the Noise considering his backs are healthy and TD machines — Michael Turner (23 TDs) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (24) have combined for 47 rushing TDs over the last two seasons.
And at wideout, they both have big-time players who can put up a 25-point day like it’s no big deal.
So, if Houserville wants to dismiss the 2-11 squad that was his punching bag in 2011, he’s making a big mistake.
Prepare for the most heated and loudest rivalry in the JFL to get worse in 2012. Hopefully their fans don’t get into fights in the parking lot because the Noise contingent painted a magnificent and, as we all know, mostly likely politically incorrect “Dawson Sucks” poster.
1. Real Houserville
2011 Record, Finish: 7-7, AFC North Champion, lost in Wild Card round.
Career Record : 32-26 (.552)
Playoff Record (Appearances): 2-4 (4)
Quarterbacks ★★★★½
The Ville enters 2012 in a completely different situation at QB.
Last year, he was wondering about the status of Peyton Manning, while taking a chance on a rookie, Cam Newton, in the draft.
This year, he kept Newton, who was a fantasy all-star last season, and he drafted Joe Flacco, who I have already talked about in the Graybill’s Generals’ preview. I think Flacco is going to have a really good season, and that’s good news for the Ville, in case Newton has a sophomore slump — which could easily be the case.
I believe Newton will produce similar numbers all across the board except in one spot — goal line carries. With Mike Tolbert signed on board, Newton should be used less often around the goal line. I’m sure the Panthers do not want their superstar QB getting injured.
And if it costs Newton a few fantasy points while at the same time keeping him in the Ville’s lineup, I’m sure he’d be OK with fewer goal line carries.
Running Backs ★★★☆☆
Darren McFadden is back after dealing with injuries once again in 2011.
It’s a risky move, but it’s extremely worth it if it pays off. In his first four seasons, McFadden has never played a full 16-game slate. He’s twice played 13 games, 12 in another season followed up by last year’s seven-game performance.
In 2010, McFadden rushed for 1,157 yards and seven scores in 13 games (he also had 507 receiving yards and three TDs), and he looked to be on his way to setting career highs in 2011, but he suffered a season-ending injury after rushing for 614 yards and four TDs in seven games.
So, if McFadden is healthy and ready for a 16-game season, who is running back No. 2 on this roster?
There are a few candidates, but the most likely RB to start for the Ville each week is Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin. The word from camp has been great and it’s why Martin has been at the top of many fantasy owner’s depth charts.
But beware of the rookie running backs.
We’ve seen this over and over again. It typically takes a year to get rookie running backs off the ground. There’s been a lot of hype for rookies over the last couple years — Ryan Mathews in 2010 and Mark Ingram in 2011 — and fantasy owners have been mostly disappointed. Martin appears to have the edge starting-wise, but I’m sure he’ll split carries with LeGarrette Blount.
If Martin and/or McFadden do not work out, Houserville will have to turn his attention to C.J. Spiller and Mark Ingram, who both will score fantasy points, but they will be in spurts as their touches will be limited. Spiller is behind Fred Jackson and Ingram will only see short-yardage carries, and even then, the short-yardage touches may be limited considering the fact that the Saints are more of a passing team. Darren Sproles actually found himself in the backfield in several short-yardage and goal-to-go situations in 2011, and considering his success there, there's no reason for that to change.
Also on the roster are Mike Goodson and Mikel Leshoure. Goodson is listed third on the depth chart for the Raiders, so feasibly, it’s a good option in case McFadden goes down, but Taiwan Jones is listed second and he might be the better option to handcuff the oft-injured McFadden.
Leshoure is suspended for two games after a second marijuana arrest, so who know if he’ll make an impact for the Lions — if they even let him play.
Wideouts ★★★★☆
Potentially, the Ville made a pick that could lead him all the way to the Super Bowl.
Then again, he could be sitting around in December shaking his head, looking at the name Andre Johnson and knowing that he made a huge mistake.
Johnson has missed significant playing time in three of the last five seasons. He did play full 16-game seasons in 2008 and 2009, but in the other years, he was limited.
If healthy, Johnson is a 100-reception, 1,500-yard receiver. The Ville’s division rival gave up on Johnson and kept Marques Colston instead, so his availability clearly is a big enough issue to keep him from being a keeper. (You can say that's just a "World of Noise" kind of move, but I actually agreed with the decision and would have done the same.)
He’s constantly bothered by hamstring issues, and therefore is a liability.
Fortunately for Houserville, his other two top wideouts have no such issue. Percy Harvin and Demaryius Thomas both have a chance to have great season, as Harvin was quietly the No. 5 WR in fantasy football last year. Bet you never would have guessed that without looking it up.
Harvin had 11 double-digit performances last season — including eight during the JFL regular season. He really picked it up at the end of the NFL season, scoring seven TDs from Week 11 on. That may have been a sign of him and Christian Ponder getting on the same page, and if that’s the case right away in Week 1, Houserville has himself a No. 1 fantasy wideout.
Thomas could earn that status, too, considering his talents were hidden by the errant throws of Tim Tebow in 2011. Add a more accurate and capable Peyton Manning, and you have yourself a big-time fantasy prospect.
Davone Bess and Brandon LaFell are merely worth a mention that they will play for Houserville's bench.
Tight Ends ★★★★★
Well, it’s not Rob Gronkowski, but in my own personal rankings of tight ends for 2012, I’d say that the Ville will be just fine with Jimmy Graham. In my opinion, Graham will have a better season than Gronk and the Ville should again have the No. 1 tight end in all of football.
If I’m wrong? Well, then with backup Jermaine Gresham, the Ville has a Dr. Seuss platoon at tight end — Hey, Graham and Gresham, do you like green eggs and ham?
Team Outlook
The Ville should win the AFC North, but it's going to be a battle. He should definitely have some worries considering two of his top fantasy starters — Andre Johnson and Darren McFadden — are coming off injuries and are injury prone.
It's one of those things where if both play a full 16-game season, Houserville is a Super Bowl team. If either one misses significant time, he's hanging out in the cellar of the AFC North.
2. Fear and Loathing
2011 Record, Finish: 7-6
Career Record : 39-41-1 (.488)
Playoff Record (Appearances): 0-3 (3)
Quarterbacks ★★★☆☆
Fear and Loathing is in a rebuild phase at quarterback, but it may be a small project now. He has Michael Vick to take care of the starting job until (1) he gets hurt or (2) one of his top prospect QBs takes off.
Fear kept Vick knowing that he was going to have to draft a young QB for the future, so he doubled down, selecting the 2012 NFL Draft first overall pick Andrew Luck and the 2010 NFL Draft first overall pick Sam Bradford.
Luck should be his guy for the future and from what everyone is saying, that future could be now. Luck looked really good in the preseason, and NFL experts say they haven’t seen a college QB this ready for the NFL ever.
That means that Fear could have an instant gem at QB and a keeper for the next 10 years or more.
That’s what he wanted and I think he got it.
Despite all that, I give Fear just a three-star rating at QB because (1) Vick struggled mightily last year and hasn’t been healthy enough to show us that 2012 will be any different, (2) Sam Bradford also struggled in 2011 with injuries and (3) Luck is still just a rookie, and I can’t give him “fantasy awesomeness” status yet.
So, even though this is a three-star rating, we could easily see this jump to a five if Vick returns to his 2010 form and Luck takes off immediately.
Running Backs ★★½☆☆
DeMarco Murray, or as his teammates call him, “DeMo,” has looked great in camp, running over players and making it tough for defenders to tackle.
Still, in my opinion, it’s very risky for Murray to be the lead back on a fantasy team. He had a monster game in 2011, rushing for an NFL rookie record 253 yards in a single game. He followed it up with four more double-digit fantasy games before breaking his ankle. He only scored two rushing TDs and I really have a hard time believing that he is the real deal as opposed to a fluke — especially as the No. 1 starter.
If he was the No. 2 RB on this team, or perhaps even the No. 3, I’d feel more comfortable with the keeper selection.
This puts a lot of pressure on Fear to have Willis McGahee put up a big season. Last season, he had a surprising seven 100-plus-yard rushing games, but we all know the opportunity for him to get as many touches as he did last season are going to drop with Peyton Manning there. He may be a little more effective with his fewer touches as Manning is one of the best play-action fake QBs of all time, and he may get more red zone opportunities because Manning doesn’t hit a wall at the 40 or the 30 like Tim Tebow often did.
With those two RBs being Fear’s top two, he may find himself looking at the bench for some help, but I’m not sure he’s going to get it. He’s got several backups and third-teamers in Jonathan Dwyer, Lamar Miller and Bernard Scott, who should be limited as long as the guys in front of them perform.
That leaves DeAngelo Williams, who was effective at times last season, but he was just an option for the Panthers outside of the red zone. Six of his seven touchdowns came late in the season, and five of the seven were scored from outside the 20. His shortest TD runs were of 8 and 2 yards. His other five were from 74, 69, 25, 24 and 22 yards. With the way the Panthers run their offense, Williams is basically a home run threat. If he doesn’t hit it for a big TD run on that random second-and-5 off-tackle run from midfield, you’re pretty much looking at a 4-point day. If he does, hello 20 points.
Wideouts ★★★★½
Fear and Loathing’s best situation is at wideout, where he has two solid No. 1 wideouts, and a bunch of backups who could easily step forward and contribute.
First, let’s start with Roddy White. For the first 10 weeks of the JFL season in 2011, White was a bust for Jawz Attack. Jawz drafted him high and watched him plummet, scoring just three touchdowns and posting three double-digit performances in that time.
He then came alive in Week 11 with his best fantasy performance to that date with 16.1 points. He then scored 20, 11.9, 15.8, 27.5 and 14.9 in the following weeks.
It was a good sign that White was back. At the same type, Julio Jones was thriving, so it may actually have been a sign of Matt Ryan getting comfortable with his wideout duo, which in my opinion is the best in the NFL.
Fear’s other wideout had the opposite issue, starting strong and ending the NFL season with seven single-digit fantasy performances in nine weeks.
That came after he put up six double-digit marks in the first seven weeks.
If both wideouts can consistently produce in 2012, Fear may have himself the best duo in the JFL.
Backing up the two WRs are Sidney Rice, Lance Moore, Rueben Randle and Emmanuel Sanders. Moore is really just good for one or two weeks, traditionally, and Rice has the potential to be Fear’s weekly FLEX guy now that Russell Wilson is in Seattle. Randle and Sanders are very nice sleeper picks, but that’s all they are at this point, considering how far down they are on the depth charts.
Tight Ends ★★★★☆
He only has one, but Vernon Davis is a nice TE to have. He had seven double-digit performances during the NFL season last year, and I can see Alex Smith trying to get him involved a few more times this season.
Team Outlook
There are some big question marks at RB in my mind, but overall, if White and Wallace can live up to their potential and if either Vick or Luck emerge as a 25- to 30-point-a-week QB, then Fear will compete for this division title.
But I hate using the word “if” more than once. It means a lot has to go right.
3. World of Noise
2011 Record, Finish: 2-11
Career Record : 28-54 (.341)
Playoff Record (Appearances): 2-2 (2)
Quarterbacks ★★★★½
Can you believe it? I gave the Noise 4½ stars at QB.
A lot of it has to do with how big of a season I expect the Falcons and Matt Ryan to have. This offense is going to be big in 2012, and the Noise will benefit from that greatly.
I think we’re going to see a lot of highlights of Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White this season, which means Ryan will be racking up the fantasy points.
As a backup, the Noise made a great selection — did I just say that? — by picking up Matt Schaub. He has six quality QB starts last season (I term that as 20 points or more) before getting injured in Week 10, and with a presumed healthy Andre Johnson back, I see no reason why he won’t be just as good in 2012.
Running Backs ★★★★½
Now, for as high I am on Matt Ryan, I’m a little down — not much, but a little — on Michael Turner in 2012. I think his touches are going to drop some as Jacquizz Rodgers steps into a “Darren Sproles-like” role with the Falcons. With a lot of passing sets, I think you’re more likely to see Rodgers out there than Turner.
Still, that doesn’t mean Turner won’t be a TD machine. He scored 11 last season, despite having just six 100-plus-yard games. He's had double-digit TD totals in each of the last four seasons. To project five straight is not that crazy.
In what will likely be just a two-RB offense, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Mike Tolbert will battle for the second spot behind Turner.
Green-Ellis is an interesting player in 2012. He steps into an offense where Cedric Benson thrived in last season, and I think he’ll be able to do the same. Green-Ellis is a pretty good running back, finding the end zone 24 times in the last two seasons. The only problem was, the Patriots didn’t hand the ball off to him enough. He had just two games where he touched the ball 20-plus times as opposed to seven where he had eight or less carries. He scored four of his 11 TDs in single-digit carry games. Just look as his GAME LOG for last season and you’ll see exactly what I mean.
The Bengals will surely give Green-Ellis a chance to get 15 to 20 carries a game, and if you look at his stats, that means the Noise will have a very good backfield in 2012.
Sprinkle in some Tolbert and the Noise could lead the JFL in rushing TDs. Tolbert should take away most of those 1-yard TDs that Cam Newton had last year, which is double the fun for the Noise. (1) Houserville isn’t getting the six points any more at QB and (2) the Noise is.
Wideouts ★★★☆☆
The Noise only has four RBs, so he stocked up at WR, which is why his FLEX will likely have a WR in it all season.
The top two WRs will be DeSean Jackson and Marques Colston. We all know that Colston was a keeper, but Jackson turned out to be a third-round draft pick, so it kind of works out for the World of Noise. The two should have been swapped in terms of where they were taken, but nevertheless, he has them both. I like Jackson to have a good season in 2012 and I think a lot of us are going to be upset that we let him slip past us in the first and second rounds.
Colston had a strong finish to the 2012 NFL season, scoring four straight double-digit performances. Noise would like him to do that during the JFL season, considering the fact that he’s only dealt with the final four weeks of the NFL season once in his fantasy career. If Colston can start strong, Noise may be able to worry about Weeks 14, 15 and 16.
I can’t believe that I’m saying this again, but the Noise made another great selection with Anquan Boldin in eighth round. Boldin struggled a bit in 2011, posting six straight single-digit performances from Week 10 to 15, but I think that can be attributed to the struggles of Joe Flacco. Again, I think Flacco is on the cusp of having a good season, and Boldin would certainly be a key cog in such a turnaround.
Also, the Noise made decent pickups with Robert Meachem, Nate Burleson and Laurent Robinson. Meachem now has Philip Rivers and less competition at WR, so he might actually find out what a consistent producer is in the NFL. Burleson is the third wideout in an offense that will have about 5,000 passing yards to go around, and Robinson is in a position where he doesn’t have a good QB, but lining up on the opposite side of a deep threat like Justin Blackmon may make him a viable option — if Blaine Gabbert takes significant steps forward at the QB position.
Tight Ends ★★★★☆
Fred Davis? Would you like to know that he had seven double-digit fantasy performances in 2012, the same as Vernon Davis? I definitely didn’t know that, so I take back my draft day jokes. The Noise actually selected a viable tight end.
I do, however, think his second tight end selection is better. Owen Daniels has always been a favorite target of Schaub, and with Schaub and Andre Johnson back, he should get some more open looks in 2012.
Team Outlook
I barely made fun of the Noise here. That should give you a good synopsis of his team outlook: It actually looks good. I can definitely see the World of Noise finishing first in this division.
After two straight AFC North titles, the Ville has been selected to win a third, earning 21 points and five first-place votes in the (much-delayed) AFC North preseason poll.
Fear and Loathing, who hasn’t won a division title since 2008, was projected to finish second with 17 points and two first-place votes. The 2009 division winning World of Noise got 16 points and two first-place votes.
Now with the preseason poll and the historical facts out of the way, it’s time for me to ruin that good feeling for Houserville.
This division, just got extremely competitive.
I can make viable cases for all three teams winning the AFC North. I personally projected the Ville to win, but I have World of Noise second and I actually give him a decent outside chance at stealing a division title.
Fear can also contend, but he needs a few things to go right for that to happen.
For the Ville and the Noise, that’s not the case. Both have great No. 1 QBs and they both have No. 2 QBs who could be someone else’s No. 1. (Trade bait for the Toaster? Interested?)
Both have questions at RB, but I give the edge to the Noise considering his backs are healthy and TD machines — Michael Turner (23 TDs) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (24) have combined for 47 rushing TDs over the last two seasons.
And at wideout, they both have big-time players who can put up a 25-point day like it’s no big deal.
So, if Houserville wants to dismiss the 2-11 squad that was his punching bag in 2011, he’s making a big mistake.
Prepare for the most heated and loudest rivalry in the JFL to get worse in 2012. Hopefully their fans don’t get into fights in the parking lot because the Noise contingent painted a magnificent and, as we all know, mostly likely politically incorrect “Dawson Sucks” poster.
1. Real Houserville
2011 Record, Finish: 7-7, AFC North Champion, lost in Wild Card round.
Career Record : 32-26 (.552)
Playoff Record (Appearances): 2-4 (4)
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| Cam Newton raised his arms several times in 2011 after short TD runs, but that type of TD may be something of the past for the Ville's (and Carolina's) franchise QB. |
The Ville enters 2012 in a completely different situation at QB.
Last year, he was wondering about the status of Peyton Manning, while taking a chance on a rookie, Cam Newton, in the draft.
This year, he kept Newton, who was a fantasy all-star last season, and he drafted Joe Flacco, who I have already talked about in the Graybill’s Generals’ preview. I think Flacco is going to have a really good season, and that’s good news for the Ville, in case Newton has a sophomore slump — which could easily be the case.
I believe Newton will produce similar numbers all across the board except in one spot — goal line carries. With Mike Tolbert signed on board, Newton should be used less often around the goal line. I’m sure the Panthers do not want their superstar QB getting injured.
And if it costs Newton a few fantasy points while at the same time keeping him in the Ville’s lineup, I’m sure he’d be OK with fewer goal line carries.
Running Backs ★★★☆☆
Darren McFadden is back after dealing with injuries once again in 2011.
It’s a risky move, but it’s extremely worth it if it pays off. In his first four seasons, McFadden has never played a full 16-game slate. He’s twice played 13 games, 12 in another season followed up by last year’s seven-game performance.
In 2010, McFadden rushed for 1,157 yards and seven scores in 13 games (he also had 507 receiving yards and three TDs), and he looked to be on his way to setting career highs in 2011, but he suffered a season-ending injury after rushing for 614 yards and four TDs in seven games.
So, if McFadden is healthy and ready for a 16-game season, who is running back No. 2 on this roster?
There are a few candidates, but the most likely RB to start for the Ville each week is Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin. The word from camp has been great and it’s why Martin has been at the top of many fantasy owner’s depth charts.
But beware of the rookie running backs.
We’ve seen this over and over again. It typically takes a year to get rookie running backs off the ground. There’s been a lot of hype for rookies over the last couple years — Ryan Mathews in 2010 and Mark Ingram in 2011 — and fantasy owners have been mostly disappointed. Martin appears to have the edge starting-wise, but I’m sure he’ll split carries with LeGarrette Blount.
If Martin and/or McFadden do not work out, Houserville will have to turn his attention to C.J. Spiller and Mark Ingram, who both will score fantasy points, but they will be in spurts as their touches will be limited. Spiller is behind Fred Jackson and Ingram will only see short-yardage carries, and even then, the short-yardage touches may be limited considering the fact that the Saints are more of a passing team. Darren Sproles actually found himself in the backfield in several short-yardage and goal-to-go situations in 2011, and considering his success there, there's no reason for that to change.
Also on the roster are Mike Goodson and Mikel Leshoure. Goodson is listed third on the depth chart for the Raiders, so feasibly, it’s a good option in case McFadden goes down, but Taiwan Jones is listed second and he might be the better option to handcuff the oft-injured McFadden.
Leshoure is suspended for two games after a second marijuana arrest, so who know if he’ll make an impact for the Lions — if they even let him play.
Wideouts ★★★★☆
Potentially, the Ville made a pick that could lead him all the way to the Super Bowl.
Then again, he could be sitting around in December shaking his head, looking at the name Andre Johnson and knowing that he made a huge mistake.
Johnson has missed significant playing time in three of the last five seasons. He did play full 16-game seasons in 2008 and 2009, but in the other years, he was limited.
If healthy, Johnson is a 100-reception, 1,500-yard receiver. The Ville’s division rival gave up on Johnson and kept Marques Colston instead, so his availability clearly is a big enough issue to keep him from being a keeper. (You can say that's just a "World of Noise" kind of move, but I actually agreed with the decision and would have done the same.)
He’s constantly bothered by hamstring issues, and therefore is a liability.
Fortunately for Houserville, his other two top wideouts have no such issue. Percy Harvin and Demaryius Thomas both have a chance to have great season, as Harvin was quietly the No. 5 WR in fantasy football last year. Bet you never would have guessed that without looking it up.
Harvin had 11 double-digit performances last season — including eight during the JFL regular season. He really picked it up at the end of the NFL season, scoring seven TDs from Week 11 on. That may have been a sign of him and Christian Ponder getting on the same page, and if that’s the case right away in Week 1, Houserville has himself a No. 1 fantasy wideout.
Thomas could earn that status, too, considering his talents were hidden by the errant throws of Tim Tebow in 2011. Add a more accurate and capable Peyton Manning, and you have yourself a big-time fantasy prospect.
Davone Bess and Brandon LaFell are merely worth a mention that they will play for Houserville's bench.
Tight Ends ★★★★★
Well, it’s not Rob Gronkowski, but in my own personal rankings of tight ends for 2012, I’d say that the Ville will be just fine with Jimmy Graham. In my opinion, Graham will have a better season than Gronk and the Ville should again have the No. 1 tight end in all of football.
If I’m wrong? Well, then with backup Jermaine Gresham, the Ville has a Dr. Seuss platoon at tight end — Hey, Graham and Gresham, do you like green eggs and ham?
Team Outlook
The Ville should win the AFC North, but it's going to be a battle. He should definitely have some worries considering two of his top fantasy starters — Andre Johnson and Darren McFadden — are coming off injuries and are injury prone.
It's one of those things where if both play a full 16-game season, Houserville is a Super Bowl team. If either one misses significant time, he's hanging out in the cellar of the AFC North.
2. Fear and Loathing
2011 Record, Finish: 7-6
Career Record : 39-41-1 (.488)
Playoff Record (Appearances): 0-3 (3)
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| Nick Malawskey was so excited about his new QB, he was there to give Andrew Luck a jersey and a Fear and Loathing hat to signify that he was the QB of his future. |
Fear and Loathing is in a rebuild phase at quarterback, but it may be a small project now. He has Michael Vick to take care of the starting job until (1) he gets hurt or (2) one of his top prospect QBs takes off.
Fear kept Vick knowing that he was going to have to draft a young QB for the future, so he doubled down, selecting the 2012 NFL Draft first overall pick Andrew Luck and the 2010 NFL Draft first overall pick Sam Bradford.
Luck should be his guy for the future and from what everyone is saying, that future could be now. Luck looked really good in the preseason, and NFL experts say they haven’t seen a college QB this ready for the NFL ever.
That means that Fear could have an instant gem at QB and a keeper for the next 10 years or more.
That’s what he wanted and I think he got it.
Despite all that, I give Fear just a three-star rating at QB because (1) Vick struggled mightily last year and hasn’t been healthy enough to show us that 2012 will be any different, (2) Sam Bradford also struggled in 2011 with injuries and (3) Luck is still just a rookie, and I can’t give him “fantasy awesomeness” status yet.
So, even though this is a three-star rating, we could easily see this jump to a five if Vick returns to his 2010 form and Luck takes off immediately.
Running Backs ★★½☆☆
DeMarco Murray, or as his teammates call him, “DeMo,” has looked great in camp, running over players and making it tough for defenders to tackle.
Still, in my opinion, it’s very risky for Murray to be the lead back on a fantasy team. He had a monster game in 2011, rushing for an NFL rookie record 253 yards in a single game. He followed it up with four more double-digit fantasy games before breaking his ankle. He only scored two rushing TDs and I really have a hard time believing that he is the real deal as opposed to a fluke — especially as the No. 1 starter.
If he was the No. 2 RB on this team, or perhaps even the No. 3, I’d feel more comfortable with the keeper selection.
This puts a lot of pressure on Fear to have Willis McGahee put up a big season. Last season, he had a surprising seven 100-plus-yard rushing games, but we all know the opportunity for him to get as many touches as he did last season are going to drop with Peyton Manning there. He may be a little more effective with his fewer touches as Manning is one of the best play-action fake QBs of all time, and he may get more red zone opportunities because Manning doesn’t hit a wall at the 40 or the 30 like Tim Tebow often did.
With those two RBs being Fear’s top two, he may find himself looking at the bench for some help, but I’m not sure he’s going to get it. He’s got several backups and third-teamers in Jonathan Dwyer, Lamar Miller and Bernard Scott, who should be limited as long as the guys in front of them perform.
That leaves DeAngelo Williams, who was effective at times last season, but he was just an option for the Panthers outside of the red zone. Six of his seven touchdowns came late in the season, and five of the seven were scored from outside the 20. His shortest TD runs were of 8 and 2 yards. His other five were from 74, 69, 25, 24 and 22 yards. With the way the Panthers run their offense, Williams is basically a home run threat. If he doesn’t hit it for a big TD run on that random second-and-5 off-tackle run from midfield, you’re pretty much looking at a 4-point day. If he does, hello 20 points.
Wideouts ★★★★½
Fear and Loathing’s best situation is at wideout, where he has two solid No. 1 wideouts, and a bunch of backups who could easily step forward and contribute.
First, let’s start with Roddy White. For the first 10 weeks of the JFL season in 2011, White was a bust for Jawz Attack. Jawz drafted him high and watched him plummet, scoring just three touchdowns and posting three double-digit performances in that time.
He then came alive in Week 11 with his best fantasy performance to that date with 16.1 points. He then scored 20, 11.9, 15.8, 27.5 and 14.9 in the following weeks.
It was a good sign that White was back. At the same type, Julio Jones was thriving, so it may actually have been a sign of Matt Ryan getting comfortable with his wideout duo, which in my opinion is the best in the NFL.
Fear’s other wideout had the opposite issue, starting strong and ending the NFL season with seven single-digit fantasy performances in nine weeks.
That came after he put up six double-digit marks in the first seven weeks.
If both wideouts can consistently produce in 2012, Fear may have himself the best duo in the JFL.
Backing up the two WRs are Sidney Rice, Lance Moore, Rueben Randle and Emmanuel Sanders. Moore is really just good for one or two weeks, traditionally, and Rice has the potential to be Fear’s weekly FLEX guy now that Russell Wilson is in Seattle. Randle and Sanders are very nice sleeper picks, but that’s all they are at this point, considering how far down they are on the depth charts.
Tight Ends ★★★★☆
He only has one, but Vernon Davis is a nice TE to have. He had seven double-digit performances during the NFL season last year, and I can see Alex Smith trying to get him involved a few more times this season.
Team Outlook
There are some big question marks at RB in my mind, but overall, if White and Wallace can live up to their potential and if either Vick or Luck emerge as a 25- to 30-point-a-week QB, then Fear will compete for this division title.
But I hate using the word “if” more than once. It means a lot has to go right.
3. World of Noise
2011 Record, Finish: 2-11
Career Record : 28-54 (.341)
Playoff Record (Appearances): 2-2 (2)
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With Matt Ryan and Michael Turner on the
same fantasy team, World of Noise is in
position to get points for TDs nearly every
time the Falcons score.
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Can you believe it? I gave the Noise 4½ stars at QB.
A lot of it has to do with how big of a season I expect the Falcons and Matt Ryan to have. This offense is going to be big in 2012, and the Noise will benefit from that greatly.
I think we’re going to see a lot of highlights of Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White this season, which means Ryan will be racking up the fantasy points.
As a backup, the Noise made a great selection — did I just say that? — by picking up Matt Schaub. He has six quality QB starts last season (I term that as 20 points or more) before getting injured in Week 10, and with a presumed healthy Andre Johnson back, I see no reason why he won’t be just as good in 2012.
Running Backs ★★★★½
Now, for as high I am on Matt Ryan, I’m a little down — not much, but a little — on Michael Turner in 2012. I think his touches are going to drop some as Jacquizz Rodgers steps into a “Darren Sproles-like” role with the Falcons. With a lot of passing sets, I think you’re more likely to see Rodgers out there than Turner.
Still, that doesn’t mean Turner won’t be a TD machine. He scored 11 last season, despite having just six 100-plus-yard games. He's had double-digit TD totals in each of the last four seasons. To project five straight is not that crazy.
In what will likely be just a two-RB offense, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Mike Tolbert will battle for the second spot behind Turner.
Green-Ellis is an interesting player in 2012. He steps into an offense where Cedric Benson thrived in last season, and I think he’ll be able to do the same. Green-Ellis is a pretty good running back, finding the end zone 24 times in the last two seasons. The only problem was, the Patriots didn’t hand the ball off to him enough. He had just two games where he touched the ball 20-plus times as opposed to seven where he had eight or less carries. He scored four of his 11 TDs in single-digit carry games. Just look as his GAME LOG for last season and you’ll see exactly what I mean.
The Bengals will surely give Green-Ellis a chance to get 15 to 20 carries a game, and if you look at his stats, that means the Noise will have a very good backfield in 2012.
Sprinkle in some Tolbert and the Noise could lead the JFL in rushing TDs. Tolbert should take away most of those 1-yard TDs that Cam Newton had last year, which is double the fun for the Noise. (1) Houserville isn’t getting the six points any more at QB and (2) the Noise is.
Wideouts ★★★☆☆
The Noise only has four RBs, so he stocked up at WR, which is why his FLEX will likely have a WR in it all season.
The top two WRs will be DeSean Jackson and Marques Colston. We all know that Colston was a keeper, but Jackson turned out to be a third-round draft pick, so it kind of works out for the World of Noise. The two should have been swapped in terms of where they were taken, but nevertheless, he has them both. I like Jackson to have a good season in 2012 and I think a lot of us are going to be upset that we let him slip past us in the first and second rounds.
Colston had a strong finish to the 2012 NFL season, scoring four straight double-digit performances. Noise would like him to do that during the JFL season, considering the fact that he’s only dealt with the final four weeks of the NFL season once in his fantasy career. If Colston can start strong, Noise may be able to worry about Weeks 14, 15 and 16.
I can’t believe that I’m saying this again, but the Noise made another great selection with Anquan Boldin in eighth round. Boldin struggled a bit in 2011, posting six straight single-digit performances from Week 10 to 15, but I think that can be attributed to the struggles of Joe Flacco. Again, I think Flacco is on the cusp of having a good season, and Boldin would certainly be a key cog in such a turnaround.
Also, the Noise made decent pickups with Robert Meachem, Nate Burleson and Laurent Robinson. Meachem now has Philip Rivers and less competition at WR, so he might actually find out what a consistent producer is in the NFL. Burleson is the third wideout in an offense that will have about 5,000 passing yards to go around, and Robinson is in a position where he doesn’t have a good QB, but lining up on the opposite side of a deep threat like Justin Blackmon may make him a viable option — if Blaine Gabbert takes significant steps forward at the QB position.
Tight Ends ★★★★☆
Fred Davis? Would you like to know that he had seven double-digit fantasy performances in 2012, the same as Vernon Davis? I definitely didn’t know that, so I take back my draft day jokes. The Noise actually selected a viable tight end.
I do, however, think his second tight end selection is better. Owen Daniels has always been a favorite target of Schaub, and with Schaub and Andre Johnson back, he should get some more open looks in 2012.
Team Outlook
I barely made fun of the Noise here. That should give you a good synopsis of his team outlook: It actually looks good. I can definitely see the World of Noise finishing first in this division.
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