2013 NFC West Preview

I really don’t think I’ve seen this since the JFL moved to a three-team-division format.

I’ve seen it in baseball, but not in football.

For the three of us who still play in the JLB, it is the equivalent of the NL East, where all three teams have had records worthy of the playoffs over the last three years, but only two could make it.

I think we could see the same thing this year in football in the NFC West.

And I think we could see some crazy tie-breakers come into play between the three. I can make cases for all three teams to win the division, but I’m going to roll with the Thieves as the favorite.

I’m a big fan of his running back tandem and Peyton Manning is as consistent as they get, which makes him the leader out of the gates.

But even still, the News Team has Aaron Rodgers and the Generals have a powerful attack in LeSean McCoy and A.J. Green. Those players will easily win games for their respective teams.

No matter what happens, I think it’s going to be an interesting division to watch, especially when divisional teams meet up.

Here’s how the rest of the JFL voted:

NFC West
1. Chinese Organ Thieves.......26 points (8 first-place votes)
2. Channel 4 News Team........17 points (1 first-place vote)
3. Graybill’s Generals..............11 points

Chinese Organ Thieves
2012 Record, Finish: 10-5 (NFC West Champion, NFC Champion, lost in Super Bowl VII)
Career Record : 55-47-1 (.539)
Playoff Record (Appearances): 3-4 (5)
Quarterbacks ½
His commercials are really funny and his music video with his younger brother for Football On Your Phone is hysterical. He is truly “The Man.”

Last year, as a fifth-round pick, he was “A Steal.”

It's appropriate that it was the Thieves who nabbed him in that round. And this year, “The Man” was a keeper.

Ditching Phillip Rivers, the Thieves decided to take the franchise in a new direction with an old signal caller, but Peyton Manning isn’t your typical “old starter.”

With a dynamic wide receiving corps that added Wes Welker for 2013, things will only get better for the 37-year-old who threw for 4,659 yards and 37 TDs in 2012.

In 2013, he should easily be able to match those figures, if not surpass them.

For a backup, and in this case, for the Week 9 Broncos bye week, the Thieves will have to roll with Andy Dalton, who will face the Miami Dolphins on the road on Thursday night. It’s not the ideal situation for Dalton, but with A.J. Green, the potential for fantasy points is always there.

Running Backs
This is scary. Real scary. When it came to the No. 2 overall pick, I thought long and hard about drafting Chris Johnson. With an improved offensive line and a more experienced Jake Locker running the offense, I feel like Johnson is primed to explode for another 1,500-yard season.

God help us if he does. Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson on the same fantasy team could be the duo that sends us all crying into the offseason.

Nevertheless, there were still some questions about Johnson, so that’s why I stayed away from him, but the high reward is certainly there for the taking. The Thieves’ backups of Lamar Miller and Bryce Brown are nice additions. Miller can help out on the bye week, and Brown could be a great player to have if anything happens to LeSean McCoy. (Please, football gods, I beg you, do not let anything happen to McCoy.)

But for the most part, Miller and Brown will ride the fantasy pine. There’s no way the see the starting lineup if Peterson and Johnson are healthy.

Wideouts
With the aforementioned backs on the roster, there will likely be no reason to start three wideouts. For the most part, the Thieves will roll with just two, and to start the season it will be Andre Johnson and Marques Colston. Johnson had a great season last year, avoiding injury for the most part and finishing as the seventh-ranked WR in fantasy. Colston finished ranked 14th, but with the way Drew Brees spreads the ball around, it’s tough to rely on Colston on a week-to-week basis.

In an attempt to draft all my cousins, the Thieves also picked up Steve Johnson, who we all know has the potential, but no quarterback. Kevin Kolb, who I wouldn’t even trust when healthy, is out for the season. Their rookie QB E.J. Manuel is roughed up and will miss the start of the season. That leaves an undrafted QB Jeff Tuel to sling the ball around, and that can’t be good for Johnson.

That leaves DeAndre Hopkins, who suffered a concussion, and Justin Blackmon, who is suspended.

The lack of depth is what brings the rating down, and if anything happens to Andre Johnson or Colston, the Thieves could be in trouble at WR. But that’s where he’ll hope the RBs will pick up the slack. … Or perhaps a particular tight end who can outscore all WRs on any given day when healthy.

Tight Ends ½
The Gronk is back in a Thieves uniform, and he’s happy to be there. The Thieves just hope that he gets healthy quick and starts to contribute right away. Heath Miller and Brandon Myers are no Gronkowski, but who is. They’ll do until the Gronk returns.

Team Outlook
I already described this team as “scary” and I’m going to re-emphasize that.

This team can lay down some serious points if Chris Johnson returns to his CJ2K form. Peterson was AP2K last year, and Manning is a machine. If all three are clicking, they alone can win matchups for the Thieves. He won’t need to worry about his wideouts posting double-digits because the aforementioned trio can make up for it.


Channel 4 News Team
2012 Record, Finish: 8-6 (Lost in NFC Wild Card)
Career Record : 55-47 (.545)
Playoff Record (Appearances): 5-4 (5)
Quarterbacks ½
Aaron Rodgers. Why do I always have to write about him? I wonder if he ever thinks about me. I know it was only a short time as a Jammer, but I wonder if he thinks about what we could have had together. I know I do.

And for what? Joseph Addai? Man, I made a dumb move. … I hope Matthew Stafford isn’t reading this.

So, back to the topic at hand: The News Team’s QB situation. What can I say? It’s golden. Well, mostly. It does suck that the Packers have a Week 4 bye which means the News Team will be without Rodgers in a divisional matchup against the Graybill Generals.

And with a strong Chinese Organ Thieves looming in Week 2, it’s conceivable that the News Team will enter Week 4 needing a win to avoid an 0-2 divisional start. They are back-breakers when it comes to tie-breakers late in the season.

That is why you do not see five stars above, too. Ryan Tannehill will get the start that week, and I do like him to have a better season with Mike Wallace added into the mix in Miami. In Week 4, the Dolphins play on the road on Monday night at New Orleans, which isn’t an ideal matchup for the Dolphins, but fantasy-wise, it’s quite possible that Tannehill will be chucking the ball a lot because they’ll be trying to keep pace or catch up to the Saints’ high-powered attack.

Running Backs
The days of five stars are over here. Arian Foster is gone in what I’m sure was a tough decision in the offseason. And yes, it looks like Foster will be ready for Week 1, so I’m sure the News Team has cursed himself a few times over the last couple days, but I’m going to make him feel better about it.

Foster will see significantly less carries this year and that’s an organizational mandate. They’re looking at close to a 60-40 split between he and Ben Tate, and with the way Tate has run the ball, it's possible that it could be an equal split. The word is that Foster may get 13 to 16 touches a game and that’s it.

That still leaves open the chance for big games, but it’s not an ideal model for consistent fantasy points.

That’s why Jamaal Charles, if healthy, is the safer bet. Andy Reid’s offense should look a lot like the style we saw when LeSean McCoy broke out in 2011. With Alex Smith at QB, Charles could easily have a huge season as the key weapon in the Chiefs’ offense.

Like his rival, the News Team will also roll with two backs as Stevan Ridley gets the call in 2013. I’ll be honest, when Nikish took Ridley in the first round, I was kind of dumbfounded, but then I was more puzzled when I found out that Ridley was actually a reliable back last year.

That completely slipped under my radar. Ridley had 290 carries for 1,263 yards and 12 TDs. He had 10 double-digit fantasy weeks, too.

I still have trouble trusting a New England Patriot back with Bill Belichick as coach, but the numbers from last year certainly do not lie.

Perhaps the loss of Arian Foster won’t be too bad after all.

And it could be even better if Giovani Bernard is as good as some people say he could be. He’s certainly a nice sleeper pick.

Andre Brown was drafted but he’s been an injury machine who suffered yet another injury.

Wideouts ½
The wideouts are the News Team’s shaky spot, but he has a pair of wideouts who can take control of a matchup with an explosive week. They’ve also been know to completely disappear, creating a point-void that could lose a matchup.

Victor Cruz is a home run threat and Eric Decker is a popular target for Peyton Manning. Together, the two WRs had seven weeks where they scored 19 or more points. They also had a combined nine weeks where they didn’t hit 7 points and seven weeks where they didn’t hit 3 points.

It’s the live or die life that the News Team will face, and with backups Chris Givens, Josh Gordon and Ryan Broyles, Cruz and Decker will have to carry the load. Givens may be of help as he works with Sam Bradford, but that’s still an unknown.

Tight Ends ½
Martellus Bennett is nothing special, but he should be able to get the targets from Jay Cutler. The News Team will look more toward Zach Sudfeld to become the next great tight end in New England. With Gronk sidelined and Hernandez jailed, he’s got the chance.

Team Outlook
I can’t say I’m as stoked about the News Team as I was at this time last year, but really, when you have Rodgers at the helm, you’re in a good position to win eight games every year. The guy had a 58-point week last year. That’s one team win easily.

His matchups against the division will be pivotal because I do see the Thieves pushing 10 wins if he can beat the News Team, so obviously, it will be key for the News Team to beat his division rival.


Graybill’s Generals
2012 Record, Finish: 2-11
Career Record : 42-55 (.433)
Playoff Record (Appearances): 4-2 (3)
Quarterbacks ½
The Generals took care of business in the offseason acquiring A.J. Green to join LeSean McCoy as a potent fantasy keeper duo. With the 12th pick in the first round where he had to pick after trading for Green, he selected Colin Kaepernick to lead his offense. It’s not the QB I would have gone with in the draft — I was personally thinking Russell Wilson was the QB of the draft — but he’ll certainly get the job done.

Kaepernick had a few big games at the end of the season last year, and obviously, we saw what he did in the playoffs, but I do think there is a danger in that we’re not sure what a whole season will bring. He did have some struggles when it came to fantasy points and that may force the Generals to start Matt Schaub, who I think could be the more viable fantasy starter at times.

Not having that sure-fire, must-start QB will be tough, because you know it leads to the back-and-forth, “should-have-started-the-other-one” scenarios that drive fantasy owners nuts. That’s why I’d roll with Schaub until Kaepernick forces my hand, but that’s me. Taking Kaepernick in the first round means that the Generals will likely do the opposite.

Running Backs ½
In Chip Kelly’s offense, I love what LeSean McCoy is poised to do. I think we’re going to see some performances that remind us of his 2011 season. And in this Generals offense, it looks like he’ll be the single back. The Generals did draft Eddie Lacy and Le’Veon Bell, so down the road there could be opportunities to slip one into the RB/WR flex position, but with a quartet of viable WRs, the Generals will likely roll solely with McCoy.

Wideouts ½
A.J. Green ranked fifth among fantasy wideouts in 2012 and he should be up there in the top five again, so there’s no need to say any more about him.

Mike Wallace joins the team and I like him in Miami to help Ryan Tannehill improve. He’ll provide that deep threat that the Dolphins have lacked and he’ll have some big weeks for the Generals.

Cecil Shorts had nine double-digits weeks last year and ranked 21st among fantasy WRs, and that was with crappy QB play. It doesn’t get much better in 2013 in terms of QBs, but Shorts will still be a decent third WR. Denarius Moore also has the talent to be a good No. 3 on this team, but he has a similar problem — no quarterback.

Tight Ends
Not stoked about the tight ends, but Kyle Rudolph should be good enough to hold down the position. He did have nine touchdowns last year, but not all TD performances led to double-digit fantasy days. However, it is good to know that he’s a popular target in the red zone. As for backup Fred Davis, I could care less. I’m sure he’ll be dropped soon based on the bye week mixup by the Generals.

Team Outlook
After a 2-11 season, one would hope that the only thing in store for the team is an improvement. I really think on many weeks, the Generals will have the advantage at RB and WR 1 and WR 2. The real key will be the QB position. He’ll need Kaepernick or Schaub to come through as a top-7 fantasy QB to have a chance to win the division. The wild card may be a more viable goal.

No matter what, I think the woes of a two-win season are behind him.

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