If the last two years haven’t been hard enough for Phillies fans, the offseason of 2015 has been worse.
Personally, I’ve been openly critical of Phillies GM Ruben
Amaro Jr., but at times during the offseason, I’ve found myself scaling back to
see the big picture. I’ve listened to interviews with him and assistant GM Scott
Proefrock, and both have been forthcoming with the fact that the organization
needs to get back on track and rebuild the less than admirable farm system.
At first, it started out well with Marlon Byrd and Jimmy
Rollins both heading out for prospects.
Then, the trade rumors started to swirl around Cole
Hamels, and what has followed has not been easy for Phillies fans to
deal with. It’s been two months of rumors and nothing more.
It’s frustrating, while at the same time completely
understandable.
Why?
Because Cole Hamels is the most desirable untradeable commodity.
I know, it's a contradictory statement, but it makes sense.
Let’s rehash what
everyone knows (or should know):
1. Amaro needs to trade Cole Hamels because he’s the best
piece that can bring back the most. He needs to get a huge package in return to
make it worth it and he needs to do it before the season starts because it all
goes south afterward.
2. Hamels’ value can’t go any higher at this point. If he
goes out and pitches to a 2-something ERA, his value remains exactly the same. So, basically, at this point, the value can only go down. More reason for him to be traded now, not later.
3. But Amaro can't trade him now, because the other owners are aware of this need to deal now. The free agent pitching market next offseason is loaded,
and there is bound to be several cheaper options available at the July
deadline. Other GMs will not ship off the farm when they know Amaro is in a must-sell-now mode. And without the proper package in return, Hamels remains in Philadelphia throughout the entire season. At that point, he’s a year older, and if still on the block, he's only bringing back a prospect package
probably similar, if not less than, what San Diego offered prior to signing
James Shields. At that point, the Phillies also would be trying to trade in a
market that includes numerous high-level free agent starters.
So what does this all mean?
Simple. Hamels isn’t going anywhere.
That also means, if he's not leaving, he’s the piece the Phillies must build
around.
The farm system, as mentioned, is not in the greatest of
shape, so if the Phillies can’t bring in a top player via a Hamels deal, the
next best thing would be to sign one.
And that’s Yoan Moncada.
I know, it’s a pipe dream, but not completely unrealistic.
The Phillies worked him out and they know what he could do for the future of
this franchise. Imagine the up the middle combo of Crawford and Moncada.
Moncada would easily become the farm system’s top player,
and he could feasibly be labeled the best prospect in all of baseball.
Add him to J.P. Crawford (No. 21 prospect on MLB.com), Aaron
Nola (No. 37) and Maikel Franco (No. 55) and that’s not a bad quartet of
players to have coming up. With luck, the Phillies can use their 2015 10th
overall pick to select another player, preferably one out of college who could
slot into that group as the next wave ready to step up in 2016 and 2017.
That would open the Phillies up to buy next season. There
are several good pitchers heading on the market, and perhaps they can make a
play for one of them, giving them Hamels and another top starter. Then, in
2017, they can make a play or two on a bat when more money comes off the books
and perhaps they can start to compete — at least for a wild card.
It may sound a bit crazy after an offseason of hearing the words "selling" and "rebuilding," but honestly, I don’t see any other option other than completely
stripping down and going the Astros route, vying for top-five picks for several
years at a time.
That’s never the ideal route, and right now, Hamels just
isn’t going to get the Phillies’ what they need because the teams who want him won’t
pay the appropriate price.
Moncada plans to sign with a team in the next week and I hope it’s
the Phillies making the big splash. It could be just what Amaro needs to get
back on top of the GM world, where he was a few years ago after making mega-deal
after mega-deal.
It also might earn him some more respect from the fans who
have turned on him in recent years.
I've slowly come back around to give him a chance at bringing the Phillies back. I just hope he doesn't let me down.
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