What the heck did Chris Tillman do to the fantasy sports
media? He had to have some kind of falling out with the experts who compile
fantasy rankings because his position in the 2015 preseason rankings baffle me
greatly.
And it’s not just this year. Last year, in ESPN’s Top 90
Starting Pitchers, compiled by Tristan H. Cockcroft, he fell to No. 52, and
this year, after another great season, he ranks 69th.
Now, don’t get me wrong here. I’m not trying to say Chris
Tillman is a top 10 pitcher, let alone top 20, but I can’t see how he ranks 10
spots behind R.A. Dickey. Hell, even Gio Gonzalez is ranked 23rd.
ESPN isn’t alone. Yahoo! has him at No. 75 and RotoWorld has
him at 71.
What am I personally missing here?
Let’s take a look at what Chris Tillman has done in the AL
East over the last three seasons:
2012: 9-3 in 15
starts (86.0 innings), 66 strikeouts, 2.93 ERA.
2013: 16-7 in 33
starts (206.1 innings), 179 strikeouts, 3.71 ERA.
2014: 13-6 in 34
starts (207.1 innings), 150 strikeouts, 3.34 ERA.
That totals 38-16 with a 3.42 ERA in 82 starts (499.2
innings). He’s been strong, he’s been durable, he’s been everything the Orioles
and fantasy fans can ask for. So why is he ranked so low?
I went digging to try and find the answer. He turns 27 on
April 15, so it’s not age, and injuries haven’t been a problem, so projecting
an injury is just foolish. At this point, he’s just entering what is considered
the prime of a starting pitcher.
His fastball velocity has trended downward slightly, going
from an average speed of 92.2 MPH in 2012 to 91.6 in 2013 to 90.8 a season ago.
After noticing that, I thought maybe that could be a reason
why everyone low-balling Tillman, but the aforementioned Gio Gonzalez, ranked
23rd on ESPN (and in the 20s on most of the other lists), who went only 10-10
last year with a 3.57 ERA and 162 strikeouts, has seen his fastball velocity
drop from 93.3 in 2012 to 92.8 in 2013 to 92.1 in 2014.
Even Max Scherzer, who deserves to be in the top 10 like he
is, has seen his fastball trend from 94.2 to 93.3 to 92.8 over the last three
years.
There are other examples of this in the top 20, so that
means that it can’t be the reason why Tillman has fallen to 69th.
It’s not just the rankings, too. The projections have been
oddly off of what he has consistently put up over the last three years.
I’m anxious for the ESPN projections to come out this week
when the fantasy game re-launches for 2015. Right now, Fangraphs projects
Tillman to have a career-worst year with a 4.35 ERA, 11-11 mark in 192 innings.
Conversely, the fans have averaged a projection of 15-8 with a 3.58 ERA in 205
innings. That seems to be closer to what I expect to happen in 2015.
And if it does, I hope that in 2016, the fantasy rankings
give a little bit more credit to one the pitcher who has consistently been
among the better starting pitching options over the last three seasons.
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