Last year was a good year for my MLB predictions, and it certainly made up for the awful prediction of a Reds-Royals World Series in 2013.
As it turns out, I was a year early for the Royals, and
fortunately, I didn’t let their struggles of 2013 dissuade me from picking them
in 2014.
So, I kept them in it against the Nationals, and I may have been right had Matt Williams stuck with Jordan Zimmermann.
But, that’s baseball. It’s unpredictable at times.
Nevertheless, I had seven of the 10 playoff teams, so I’m satisfied, and I hope
to get at least that many again this year.
It may be tough, though, as I admittedly took some chances with these. It's OK, however, because I feel strongly about them and I look forward to watching this season progress.
Even if I'm only half-correct, this season will be a great journey because there are truly some exciting teams out there.
It may be tough, though, as I admittedly took some chances with these. It's OK, however, because I feel strongly about them and I look forward to watching this season progress.
Even if I'm only half-correct, this season will be a great journey because there are truly some exciting teams out there.
I have my division-by-division results below, but let’s get to the
meat of the predictions, and let's first start with the biggie.
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Padres' grand offseason leads to grand postseason
AL Wild Card
Detroit over Los Angeles
ALDS
Seattle over Detroit
Chicago over Baltimore
ALCS
Seattle over Chicago
NL Wild Card
Pittsburgh over St. Louis
NLDS
San Diego over Chicago
Washington over Pittsburgh
NLCS
San Diego over Washington
World Series
San Diego over Seattle, 4-2
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I thought it was a bit bold at first, but looking around, there are a lot of bold picks out there.
I almost had the Mariners winning it all, but I backed off because of the deal I expect the Padres to make.
By July 30, I think we will see Cole Hamels in San Diego, which will lock down a rotation that will be able to combat the best.
Hamels, James Shields, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy makes a formidable rotation, and if it takes Cashner to make the Hamels deal — as some have suggested it would, Josh Johnson and/or Brandon Morrow are among the decent fifth options they'd have. Either way, they have what it takes.
Add in a strong bullpen and an offense that will score runs, and I think the Padres have what it takes to win it all this year. Matt Kemp will reach MVP level once again, Justin Upton will have a strong season and I expect Wil Myers, who is now healthy, to return to the level he was playing at when he won the Rookie of the Year award in 2013.
Altogether, the Padres have the starting pitching, the offense and the bullpen to win this year.
Of course, Washington currently has the better starting pitching, but I have some serious questions offensively. With injuries piling up, I seriously worry about a repeat of the 2011 Phillies, who even with four top-line starters and 102 wins, wound up losing in the NLDS.
They'll make it one step farther, but the Padres will win a great series against the Nats in the NLCS.
Now, let's take a division-by-division look.
| W | L | |
| Baltimore | 90 | 72 |
| New York | 86 | 76 |
| Boston | 82 | 80 |
| Toronto | 79 | 83 |
| Tampa Bay | 70 | 92 |
This is one of the two divisions in baseball where I'm selecting a repeat champion, and I almost didn't do it. I think Chris Tillman and a breakout from Kevin Gausman will be just enough to lead the Orioles back to the playoffs. The loss of Nelson Cruz could be used as a reason to move away from the Orioles, but I like Chris Davis to bounce back strong and Manny Machado to reach the levels we saw prior to his injuries. At the end of the day, the Orioles remain the best team in this division. The Yankees are a close second, but I don't trust Masahiro Tanaka to stay healthy all year, and I think they'll have issues with the rotation. They'll be in contention for the Wild Card and I wouldn't be shocked if the sneak in. Boston doesn't have a rotation that scares me, and neither does Toronto. Tampa Bay may have the best rotation, but the offense will struggle even more than it did last year.
| AL Central | W | L |
| Chicago | 89 | 73 |
| Detroit | 88 | 74 |
| Cleveland | 83 | 79 |
| Kansas City | 83 | 79 |
| Minnesota | 68 | 94 |
This was the second hardest division to select. If you've followed any of my predictions and fantasy teams, you know I'm a huge fan of the Royals. I've had them winning the last two World Series, so it was really hard to jump off their bandwagon. Whereas I do believe their offense will be much stronger in 2015, I'm afraid of that rotation. James Shields is gone, both Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas are a year older, and Yordano Ventura saw a jump of 50-plus innings last years. That said, I see them fall a few games short, just like the Indians — Sports Illustrated's pick for 2015. I'm not buying that at all. Detroit would be the easy pick based on its string of division titles, and that lineup will be a tough one to compete against, but I'm jumping on the White Sox train. I like the one-two punch of Chris Sale and Jeff Samardzija, and I think Carlos Rodon provides a star-power punch in the rotation down the road and wins the Rookie of the Year award. The bullpen is strong and the lineup has got some great pop.
| AL West | W | L |
| Seattle | 92 | 70 |
| Los Angeles | 87 | 75 |
| Oakland | 80 | 82 |
| Houston | 78 | 84 |
| Texas | 71 | 91 |
This is it. This is the moment Mariners fans have been waiting for. A trip to the World Series. King Felix battles for the Cy Young and Taijuan Walker breaks out to provide a powerful 1-2 punch in the Pacific Northwest. Add in Hisashi Iwakuma, and that's a great trio at the top. The lineup will takes big strides, too, with Nelson Cruz and a breakout from Mike Zunino. They'll join forces with Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Austin Jackson. To me, they'll hold a decent lead throughout the year in the division. The Angels have some great offensive pieces, but after Garrett Richards and Jered Weaver, I have some serious questions with the rotation. Matt Shoemaker had a great season, but I cannot picture him duplicating it. Oakland has continually made baffling offseason moves and yet somehow made the playoffs over and over again. This year, I think the moves finally backfire. Houston takes a step forward, but the Astros are still a year or two out, and Texas may not lose the 95 games it did a year ago, but it will be close.
| NL East | W | L |
| Washington | 94 | 68 |
| Miami | 86 | 76 |
| New York | 83 | 79 |
| Atlanta | 72 | 90 |
| Philadelphia | 57 | 105 |
Many people will have the Nationals winning 100-plus games, but the only century mark you'll see in the Majors this year will belong to the Phillies, and that's in losses. I may be a little harsh — especially for a Phillies fan — but this team is really bad. It will be even worse as the season progresses. Players like Hamels will be gone, taking away wins that might have prevented the horrid 100-loss season. Washington will win enough games to take the division behind that pitching staff, but I think a few stretches of poor offense will keep them from reaching that glorious 100-win plateau. Miami will be in a running for a Wild Card bid, but the Marlins will fall just short, and the Mets will be in contention heading into September, but they, too, will fall a few games short. Atlanta will not score enough to be able to compete.
| NL Central | W | L |
| Chicago | 90 | 72 |
| St. Louis | 89 | 73 |
| Pittsburgh | 87 | 75 |
| Milwaukee | 80 | 82 |
| Cincinnati | 71 | 91 |
This was by far the hardest division for me to predict. I wavered numerous times. I think the Pirates will be a great team with the best outfield in all of baseball. I think the Cardinals are too good of an organization to ever count out. And I've caught Cubs fever. No matter what, I have all three teams here making the playoffs, so it will be a battle like we saw three years ago — the division winner avoids the dreaded one-game divisional Wild Card game. So, alas, I settled on the Cubs. Even with Kris Bryant going down, I'm a huge fan of this offense. I know Bryant will be up in mid-April, Jorge Soler will launch moonshots, and Anthony Rizzo will be one of the best first basemen in the National League. I also like the addition of Miguel Montero at catcher. Additionally, I'd expect Addison Russell to come up later this year to provide some help, possibly at second base. Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta will be strong atop the rotation, and I wouldn't discount a trade at the deadline to add a third top option. It may not be the impact pitcher like Hamels, who I of course have going to the Padres, but I'm sure there will be decent options for them. (And, of course, if they manage to outbid the Padres for Hamels, you can just rewrite my headline above, because they'll be my favorite to win it all.) The Cardinals have a great team, too, and I really don't have to list all that they have. It's good enough to win the division; I just personally have them one behind the Cubs. And the Pirates are just a few games behind both of them. Milwaukee's offense will be decent, but I just can't put them at the level of the aforementioned three division leaders, and the Reds are even farther behind that.
| NL West | W | L |
| San Diego | 90 | 72 |
| Los Angeles | 85 | 77 |
| San Francisco | 81 | 81 |
| Arizona | 72 | 90 |
| Colorado | 67 | 95 |
If the Dodgers were smart, they'd make a move for Hamels to block San Diego. A.J. Preller had an offseason to remember, and I don't expect him to stop just because the regular season is underway. There's no way we can underestimate what he can do after making all the moves he did without giving up any of his top three prospects. Those chips will come in handy. Right-handed power will play in Petco Park and Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers will be the catalysts. They'll beat up on the Rockies and Diamondbacks, they'll take good amount of games from the Giants who I have taking a step back, and they'll match up well against the Dodgers on non-Clayton Kershaw days. I think that'll be enough for them to take this division and keep the Dodgers out of the playoffs. The Giants will be just out of reach for most of the season, not because it's an odd year, but rather, because they're just not good enough. Madison Bumgarner was a stud in the playoffs, but 270 innings? That takes a toll. And the rest of the starting rotation is a huge question mark. There's no way they get it done. Arizona is not ready to compete and Colorado is a mess. I mean, a real mess. Kyle Kendrick is the Opening Day starter. Enough said.
Postseason Awards predictions coming Wednesday
Postseason Awards predictions coming Wednesday
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