2016 MLB Predictions: Houston, we have a winner!

The last two times the San Francisco Giants won the World Series, I have predicted exactly who they would play.

However, in both cases, I had those teams winning — Rangers in 2012 and Royals in 2014 — and I didn’t have them beating the Giants; instead, I had them beating other teams that didn’t quite make it.

Jimmy's Jargon 2016 Predictions

Wild Cards

Giants over Cardinals

Rangers over Tigers

Division Series

Astros over Rangers

Royals over Blue Jays

Cubs over Giants

Nationals over Diamondbacks

League Series

Astros over Royals

Cubs over Nationals

World Series

Astros over Cubs, 4-3

MVPs

Carlos Correa, AL

Paul Goldschmidt, NL

Cy Youngs
Dallas Keuchel, AL

Max Scherzer, NL

Rookies of the Year
Tyler White, AL
Corey Seager, NL

This year, I hope my American League pick is correct, and I hope this time, they win it all.

Knowing my luck, the Giants will swoop in and take down my predicted 2016 World Series champion, the Houston Astros.

Many have the Cubs and many have the Giants, but after careful thought — trust me, I tossed through a few different scenarios, I can't help but go with my gut instinct on this one.

The Giants have been a popular pick because it is an even year and they have a rotation that has many in the Bay Area giddy for the season’s start.

I, however, have tempered expectations for the Giants. I think they make the playoffs, but let's be serious. Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija were not the top arms on the market. If I were the Giants, I would have combined the money spent on both and got David Price or Zack Greinke. Instead, they went for the 2-for-1 deal and I have concerns about both.

If both pan out, added with Madison Bumgarner, a strong defense, a solid bullpen and a good lineup, the Giants will win the NL West. But, I'm not buying it. I have them in the wild card. 

The team I am buying in the National League is the team I nearly had in the World Series a year ago.

This same blog had Yankees-Cubs in the World Series with the Cubs breaking the curse. Yes, that would have been a failure, but it would have been better than the awful prediction I had. I won't even mention it, it was that bad.

I backed off that original Cubs prediction because I thought I was a year ahead.

That's why I'm going with the Cubs this year to make it to the World Series. I know, they're the popular pick, and those tend to fall flat — a la the Nationals of last year and the Phillies of 2010 — but I have faith in the Cubs using their farm system to trade for whatever they need to get it done this year. No Bartman, no goat, no swarm of bees will stop them. They're so deep and so strong, I wholeheartedly believe we'll see an amazing site in Chicago this year.

But that amazing run comes to an end in the very last game of the year, Game 7 of the World Series, where the Astros take it all.

This team is legit beyond belief, and their MVP is going to lead them back to the winner's circle.

In my opinion, Carlos Correa is a half-season away from being declared the best player in baseball — step aside Mike Trout. Correa is just one of those once-in-a-lifetime players, and I'm excited to watch him dominate in 2016.

But he's not alone.

George Springer could be right there in the conversation with the rest of the elite players in baseball. He was sidetracked last year when a hit-by-pitch took him out, but he returned strong. Jose Altuve is already in that elite conversation at second base and Dallas Keuchel is the reigning Cy Young winner. I see several other bright spots on this roster, and the minor league system is so jammed packed with talent that they can easily take care of any deficiencies they may have.

They may not even have their World Series starting catcher or Game 2 starter on their roster yet, but they will. The Cubs will give them a run for their money, but in the end, I have the Astros walking off with the win.

Walking off. I guess that means I have the American League winning the All-Star Game. Correa can be MVP of that, too.

AMERICAN LEAGUE 

AL East	W	L
Toronto	89	73
Boston	85	77
New York	82	80
Tampa	80	82
Baltimore	73	89

The American League East was easily the hardest for me to predict, and I’m willing to admit, there’s a good chance I’m wrong with everything in this division. That’s because, I can seriously make a case for why each team can win the division, while at the same time, make an argument for why each team will finish in last place.

In the end, I gave Toronto the nod for the division because they by far have the best offense in the division, and even though they lost David Price to the Red Sox, I like Marcus Stroman to step up and take that role this season. I also think we’ll see some surprises on the pitching side, and even if they do have pitchers posting ERAs in the 4s, it’s not going to matter much with that offense. It’s why Drew Hutchinson went 13-5 last year with a 5.57 ERA.

The bullpen is slightly stronger and I think when you put it all together, they’re the best team in all phases.

The Red Sox still have starting pitching issues and some lineup questions; the Yankees have the best bullpen but an aging lineup that is bound to miss time and a starting rotation that is no better than the Blue Jays; the Rays have the best pitching in the division, but their lineup is the weakest; and the Orioles have DHs playing all over the field and their starting pitching cannot be trusted.

For all four of those teams, I can make cases for why they'll overcome their deficiencies, and while I’d love to be bold and pick the Rays to win it, I just can’t. The safest, most likely pick is Toronto.

AL Central	W	L
Kansas City	92	70
Detroit	89	73
Chicago	84	78
Cleveland	82	80
Minnesota	70	92

Two years in a row, I had the Royals going to and winning the World Series. Unfortunately, it was the two years before last. As seems to be the case always, I was a year early on the Royals. I doubted the Royals' chances last year because of starting pitching, and I will not do it again. With that defense and strategic offense, and a strong bullpen locking it down in the end, the Royals are my team to beat in the American League Central.

Detroit steps up and gets better pitching from guys like Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez, as well as a boost from Jordan Zimmermann, but in the end, I don’t think it will be enough to overtake the Royals. I have them in the wild card. The Chicago White Sox will start stronger this year and contend for the wild card, but fall a game or two short, as will Cleveland. Minnesota takes a step back, and not because they got worse, but rather, the teams around them got better. The youth will come up and impress, but they’ll still have their growing pains.

AL West	W	L
Houston	92	70
Texas	86	76
Seattle	83	79
Oakland	76	86
Los Angeles	71	91

Heading into 2015, I really thought the Astros were a year away from competing. Back then, I fully planned on having them in the wild card hunt this year, but after their trip to the ALDS where they took the Royals to five games, I'm taking them all the way this year.

From top to bottom, I love this team.

Texas has the chance to give Houston a run for its money early, but I feel like they’re just a few starting pitchers behind. They’ll certainly have the offense, especially when Nomar Mazara joins the big league club.

Seattle has the chance to make a run at the wild card, but I think they’ll fall short due to starting pitching; meanwhile, Oakland and Los Angeles still have glaring rotation issues after their top two, and some holes in the lineup.

NL West	W	L
Washington	90	72
New York	86	76
Miami	81	81
Atlanta	70	92
Philadelphia	67	95

In 2015, most had the Nationals winning the National League East and the Mets coming in second. After the opposite happened, I’m going to stick with the same prediction I had a year ago. The Nationals win it with the Mets falling short of the wild card.

Why do I keep the best pitching rotation out of the playoffs? Easy, I’m worried about the heavy workload they all put in last year. I think some tired arms will lead to a sluggish 2016 season. We’ve seen it many times before with pitchers who had to extend themselves far beyond their previous season-high marks.

I think they’ll be right in it until the final week, but I like the Nationals to pitch and score at a higher level than the Mets. Miami will have success in stretches, but a few rough patches will keep them around .500, and Atlanta and Philadelphia will have the growing pains of a young roster. I do see Atlanta having a chance to perhaps win more than the 70 games I predicted if the offense plays like it did at times in the spring, but they still don’t have enough to compete this year — especially with the front office is eying future years for being competitive.

NL Central	W	L
Chicago	96	66
St. Louis	90	72
Pittsburgh	88	74
Cincinnati	65	97
Milwaukee	64	98

The best three teams in baseball last year were in the National League Central, and even though I only see incremental steps back for the Cardinals and the Pirates, I have them battling for wild cards, not the division. The Cubs will win this division running away. They have the most talent and they have the front office that will continue to add at the deadline.

The Cardinals are a very good team that I just won't count out, while the Pirates will only miss out on the playoffs because of the fact that they'll have to play the Cubs and Cardinals a combined 38 times, and I just don't see them matching up well against them this year. 

Cincinnati and Milwaukee will battle it out for the No. 1 pick in 2017, especially after they trade away what little major league talent they have left.

NL West	W	L
Arizona	91	71
San Francisco	89	73
Los Angeles	82	80
San Diego	72	90
Colorado	65	97

Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller, Patrick Corbin? Where do I sign up? I'm excited for this team, and while I was a little worried that I was having a relapse into my San Diego Padres love-fest from a year ago, I can't look past the starting pitching here.

One through three is best in the division — namely because I don't trust Cueto and Samardzija — and the lineup really has some pop to it. I think finally we'll see Paul Goldschmidt get a little more press because this team will battle through a tough early schedule to take the division lead.

The Giants may own a division lead at times, too, but I think down the stretch, we'll see the Diamondbacks pull ahead. The Giants will get the wild card. All bets are off, though, if Samardzija and Cueto both pitch like aces. In that case, I apologize for not giving them the division, and I give them a good chance to upend the Cubs for a trip back to the World Series. If they do that, I promise to pick them in 2018.

The Dodgers will regress and we'll start to question their direction and may even see a firesale. San Diego will sell off, too, when it's clear that they just can't compete with the rest of the division. James Shields, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Matt Kemp could easily go elsewhere by July. Both my World Series teams, Astros and Cubs, would be likely landing spots for those arms.

And lastly, Colorado. What can I say? They'll be better in outfield offense on the road without Corey Dickerson, and that's about it. Cargo should be gone by July and so will the fan base.