A little guy made some big headlines on Thursday.
Atlanta Braves 22-year-old second baseman Ozzie Albies signed a seven-year, $35 million contract extension that includes two team options that could take the
contract to $45 million.
It’s quite the team-friendly deal for the 5-foot-8 budding star, and the second-such deal the Braves have made after
snagging Ronald Acuna’s service for the next eight years for $100 million.
Albies, who posted a 3.8
WAR last year and has a career average of .272 with 31 homers, 102 RBIs, 144
runs scored and 24 stolen bases, is a steal at that price, but who are we to judge?
There was such an uproar
on Thursday.
He needs to fire his agent!
What is he doing?
He got absolutely robbed!
I heard it all from callers and hosts on MLB Network Radio; I read it
all on Twitter.
And I don’t get it.
So many times in sports,
when a player holds out for extra money, we hear the argument: “They already
have millions, what's an extra $20 million? Don’t they want to win?”
Fans often question why players don't take a little less to win.
But now that one has done that, we're questioning it again?
Really? I'm lost.
Maybe Albies likes where he
is. Maybe he loves the Braves and his teammates. Maybe he wants to win and he
knows by not pushing for the extra cash everything thinks he should have gone
for the Braves will be able to support more talent and push for a title.
Maybe, just maybe, the
Curacao native just wants to make sure he and his family are set for life.
Yes, $35 million isn’t the
$100 million that Acuna got — also deemed a steal by the pundits — but it’s still $35 million. He can invest. He can
build for his future. And he can play carefree knowing that if his career ends
tomorrow, he’s got $35 million and not his league minimum $575,000.
So let’s be happy for him.
Let’s be happy for his family. He made a decision — one that many others have made in 2019. Acuna, Eloy Jimenez, Blake Snell, Luis Severino and Aaron
Nola are among the many who have signed team-friendly deals recently.
All took “under-value”
contracts to create a safety net.
Think about Severino, who is out
at least six weeks with shoulder issues. How happy is he now with that financial
decision?
Had he turned that down,
he’d be put in a list of players who have made that choice and regretted it.
The poster child for this
is Tim Lincecum, who turned down a five-year, $100 million deal. At the time, he
was pitching way above that contract value.
He made a choice. He
wanted more and never got more.
He made a poor choice.
Max Scherzer made a
similar decision. He turned down $144 million from the Tigers.
It was a huge risk, and
his gamble paid off big time after signing a $210 million dollar deal with the
Nationals.
He made the right choice, but had he taken the $144 million, would you have blamed him?
I wouldn't have. I personally remember posting about how Scherzer clearly didn't learn from Lincecum.
The fact is, the players can
make their own decisions.
Who are we to criticize
them if they choose security over insane riches?
The other aspect of this is
how we evaluate a player’s worth.
When it comes down to it,
maybe the WAR value we have right now which states that a win is worth about $9
million is a bit off.
Think about it. Is Mike
Trout really a $90-plus million a year player in this system?
No, he's not. Don't get me wrong, he’s great, but in the economic system of the game as it stands right now, no one would or could pay him half of that projected WAR value.
So, if it is unrealistic to pay Trout what he's "worth," why should a 1-war
player be worth $9 million?
Let's use Trout's current contract as a
starting point. I think most would agree that $430 million over 12 years for Trout is more
than a fair deal.
At $35 million a year,
divide by his 10.2 WAR from a year ago and you get about $3.5 million per win — I
did some rounding.
That's far from $9
million.
With Albies being a 3.8
WAR player a year ago, he should be worth $13.3 million a year by the Mike
Trout standard.
Albies is getting $5 million a
year, so yes, by my new Trout WAR standard, he should be getting $7 million more in this equation.
When we look at it that
way, it’s not all that crazy; certainly less crazy that the difference of what the current WAR projection would have him making ($34.2 million).
And let’s also remember,
Salvador Perez signed an insanely team-friendly deal like this one. He
out-performed it by miles and the Royals went ahead and adjusted the contract.
The Astros did the same
for Jose Altuve, who in 2014 signed what essentially with team options was a six-year extension worth $25 million.
He won an MVP award and the Astros paid him his dues and restructured his contract in 2018 to extend him for five years for $151 million.
Like the Royals, the Astros didn't have to do that, but they did.
I would like to believe if Albies or even Acuna way out-perform their deals, the Braves would take care of them.
And if he fails — it’s a
tough game and many do — Albies will be safe at home.
Safe at home.
That’s all
we really want in baseball.
.
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