I'm ready to face the heat, especially from the Yankees fans who yelled at me for picking the Rays to not only win the division, but go on to compete in the World Series last year.
But hey, it feels good to be right.
In fact, it feels really good, because I had Dodgers over Rays. Always nice when that happens.
Here we go for 2021, and I'm going to roll with the two teams that I thought were so tempting to pick a year ago, but I held off. I had learned my lesson from years ago being too early on the Royals' and Astros' runs.
I think this is the year for the White Sox and Padres, and I'll go through my reasons why I have them outlasting everyone.
First, let's start with the White Sox.
Yes, I know it is a trendy pick, but I was pushing them a year ago. I picked them to with the AL Central in 2020 and I am not jumping off the train that I got on a year ago because it's all of a sudden the trendy pick.
It's also the right pick in my mind.
The lineup top to bottom, even without Eloy Jimenez for the time being, is a juggernaut, and I'm a huge fan of the rotation and bullpen. There's depth here that will be needed to get through the season, and when you start lining up these starters in playoff mode, I think Lucas Giolito — a Cy Young winner in my mind — is going to be that horse to lead this team. Dylan Cease, Dallas Keuchel, Lance Lynn and yes, my boy, Carlos Rodon — I love this rotation.
And the other big factor that we have to consider when making these picks is not how the team looks now, but how it will look in August. If there is any team out there with the ability to move assets and win, it's the White Sox.
I predicted this a few years back when the Astros won. I specifically noted in my projection that they had the talent at the majors and the farm system to back it up, and they did just that, bringing in Justin Verlander, who was a difference maker.
We'll see the White Sox make a huge move to get another starter at the deadline, and maybe even a key bat if needed. There's just too many options here for this team not to win.
And on the National League side, I think the Padres are in a similar position, although, I think we may see the farm contribute via call-ups. I absolutely believe Mackenzie Gore comes up to bolster and already great rotation, and even though they come up short in the division over 162 games, they've have what it takes to win in a five-game series vs. the Dodgers. And, I know this is biased due to my fantasy ownership, but don't be shocked to see C.J. Abrams at second base by July.
Still if call-ups aren't the answer, AJ Preller can easily use the top prospects to add to this team.
So, that's really why I really like these two teams to be in the Series at the end. I do really like the Dodgers and Braves to push the Padres to the extreme, though, in the playoffs. Any major setbacks for the Padres will open the door for the Dodgers to repeat or the Braves to make their return to the Series.
Wild Cards
Padres over Nationals
Blue Jays over A's
League Divisional Series
Braves over Cardinals
Padres over Dodgers
White Sox over Rays
Astros over Blue Jays
League Championship Series
Padres over Braves
White Sox over Astros
World Series
White Sox over Padres
DIVISION BY DIVISION OUTLOOK
| NL East | W | L |
| Braves | 90 | 72 |
| Nationals | 87 | 75 |
| Phillies | 85 | 77 |
| Mets | 82 | 80 |
| Marlins | 71 | 91 |
The Braves win this division in my mind, as much as it pains me to say it. I want to go homer and pick the Phillies, but I just can't. Why? Because I don't see the Phillies getting over the Marlins' curse. I think we'll all sit down in October and see a 7-12 record vs. the Marlins and wonder what could have been. The Nationals will fall just a bit short here, and I'm not buying the Mets. Even with this Lindor mega deal, I don't trust them to win. I threw them in fourth because I see them either running away with the division or finishing fourth — nothing in between. So when working the odds, I bet that they are an under-performing team.
| NL Central | ||
| Cardinals | 88 | 74 |
| Cubs | 87 | 75 |
| Brewers | 82 | 80 |
| Reds | 74 | 88 |
| Pirates | 65 | 97 |
I really dislike picking this division. I originally had the Cubs winning it, but chickened out and went with the Cardinals because I think they have the pitching and upcoming prospects that will help them win. Nolan Arenado is obviously a boost, but I think we see Dylan Carlson and Tyler O'Neill make impacts on offense, and young pitchers come in to lead the charge. At some point this summer, Matthew Liberatore will join Jack Flaherty in the ranks of dominant starters. Going down the list, I'm not a fan of the Brewers setup, and the Reds and Pirates are a mess.
| NL West | ||
| Dodgers | 98 | 64 |
| Padres | 97 | 65 |
| Giants | 80 | 82 |
| Diamondbacks | 73 | 89 |
| Rockies | 60 | 102 |
At the end of the day, I gave the divisional edge to the Dodgers because I think they are set to outlast the Padres in 162, but that being said, you can see with the Padres one game behind them, I think it's a real tossup. Maybe it would be the best for us all if they finish in a tie so we can get the ultimate one-game divisional tie-breaker.
| AL East | ||
| Rays | 93 | 69 |
| Blue Jays | 91 | 71 |
| Yankees | 89 | 73 |
| Red Sox | 80 | 82 |
| Orioles | 65 | 97 |
Rays, baby! I was right about it last year, and I hope to be correct again. I know the Rays sent Blake Snell off, but we've seen this before from them. They know what they're doing. I love the lineup. I love the bullpen. And the starters — I mean, what they call starters — are just as good as they were a year ago. This team will grind out win after win. And it will be enough to win this division. I'm giving the Blue Jays the nod at the No. 2 spot. This is the tough choice for me, because yes, it should be the Yankees, but there's a bit of pause for me with this team. I see the injury issues happening right now, I worry about some in the future and I'm not a fan of this team in its current setup. It's just a gut feeling. I have the Red Sox winning only 80 games, and based on some of the projections, that may be high, but I cannot deny the urge to give them even more wins. There is some talent and reason to hope, and if someone were to argue that the Red Sox would finish higher than the Yankees, I'd entertain the argument. But the realist in me has them at No. 4.
| AL Central | ||
| White Sox | 92 | 70 |
| Twins | 87 | 75 |
| Royals | 77 | 85 |
| Indians | 70 | 88 |
| Tigers | 60 | 102 |
I've already explained why the Sox are No. 1 here. Twins fall short and it's due to starting pitching. The Royals may push even higher because there is great talent on this team and their window is coming, and the Royals-White Sox rivalry is going to be great to watch over the next five years. The Indians are one step away from the rebuild. Jose Ramirez is going to be traded and this team will spiral into the realm of Detroit very soon.
| AL West | ||
| Astros | 90 | 72 |
| Athletics | 88 | 74 |
| Rangers | 82 | 80 |
| Angels | 77 | 85 |
| Mariners | 71 | 91 |
I have the Astros winning the West, which honestly shocked me when I sat down to do this. I still think they have the talent to do it, and I'm not sure the A's have it. ... But I'll be the first to admit, I've said this before about the A's. There's a really interesting team there and I can make an argument to flip flop my projections. I have the Rangers shocking most and finishing third because I trust their youth over what the Angels have going on around Mike Trout. ... I get why Trout signed that deal, but I truly wish he would have gone to the market to find a team that would truly have a chance of winning in his prime. He's running dangerously close here to missing out on the playoffs yet again. ... Lastly, the Mariners, I have them fifth, but they are legit the only fifth place projection that I give the chance to shock me and finish much higher. I don't think there's a shocking playoff run — especially in the current old-school format — but they could make a run at third place.
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