Championships are not won on spreadsheets; they're won on toilets.
Wait, what?
"My team has depth and flexibility," King Crox writes from this throne, "and I spend a lot of time in the bathroom avoiding my family to review and assess all season long. Playoffs aren’t about who’s the best; it’s about who’s best fitted for the marathon over a 5-month span."
And apparently, this isn't a running marathon; it's a sitting marathon.
Who can hang on the longest.
For Crox, he's hoping Jose Abreu, at age 36, can hang on a little longer. The newest Astro had a bit of a down year in his final season in Chicago. He still hit .304 with 40 doubles, but his homers (15) and RBIs (75) were his lowest full-season totals in his MLB career.
Maybe the defending World Series champions surrounding him in the lineup will help rejuvenate his career to be closer to the 30-homer, 117-RBI guy he was in 2021.
Nolan Arenado, at age 31, is also getting up there, but he did not have a down season in 2022. In fact, he pushed his streak out to seven straight full seasons of 30-plus homers and 100-plus RBIs. He also was one away from matching a career high in doubles with 42.
It will be very important — if a postseason run is in Crox's future — for Abreu and Arenado to lead the group.
"It’s kind of like buying concert tickets for a long time favorite band but really going for the opening act," Crox said. "Yeah, the headliner is going to be rock solid like they always are, but the young up and comer(s) is/are going to come with energy and get the place buzzing."
Luis Robert, Alex Verdugo and Dylan Carlson are among the young up-and-comers who have had a lot of promise, but haven't fully gotten it going in the majors. Verdugo had the best season of the group, only because he played an actual full season, but still, Crox is banking on a full season of Robert, who is only 25, to push the needle in his favor.
"Injuries have gotten in his way, but when he's out there, he's the guy we all think he is," Crox said. "He was quoted about the WBC being great for a taste of big moment games in the spring so I expect him to hit the ground running."
Robert batted .284 in 98 games last year with 12 homers, 56 RBIs and 11 steals. His projections have him batting .282 with 24 homers, 79 RBIs and 23 steals, but we were led to believe this toolsy, hot prospect was going to be a super star. He still can achieve that status, but we need to start seeing that this season.
Crox will also need to see bounce-back seasons from Ketel Marte and Nick Castellanos — and maybe even a rejuvenation of Christian Yelich? — to battle with the AL's top dogs.
Fortunately, he has Xander Bogaerts — finally, in time for him to not be a Red Sox. The San Diego lineup if very Topton-like — there are no breaks — and Bogaerts should see an uptick in production just because of that.
Lastly, the JT Realmuto era is over for good in Croxville. Gabriel Moreno is the new dude in town, and he has the starting gig in Arizona. The projections have him only playing 97 games, but I like him to be on the field for 140 this year, assuming he gets at least 20 or so games at DH. I think, like Realmuto or Adley Rutschman, it will be hard for a manager to not send a lineup card out there without his catcher on it in some fashion.
The pitching, as mentioned in other previews, is very strong in the AL, too, and the Crox has the arms to match up with the top teams, but he's definitely going to need an arm or two to step up and match the level of success he will get from Framber Valdez, Luis Severino, Hunter Greene and Brandon Woodruff.
"Pitching in the AL is solid — outside of Choo — so it’s more about keeping pace, than outpacing," Crox said quietly knowing that Choo could be just one stall over. "Detmers looks to have a little extra giddy-up this spring and back to his dominate college days so I’m excited to see what he brings. Baby “Pedro” Bello is another who has to take the step to tap some of that potential. I’m excited about the youth on this squad, pitching side included."
If that happens, Crox could squeak into the playoffs once again. Last year, he outlasted Parker for that final spot, and it really looks like a battle for the three-spot will be on from the get-go, with a lot of respect going to Topton and the defending champion, Breakfast.
"Same ol’ script, year after year," Crox said. "Look, Sam is the champ and all roads lead through him — no denying that. But roster on paper today is a very small part of what it takes to get to that postseason — somewhere I have frequented since joining."
Well, yeah, that and the bathroom.
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